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Author: [Fantasy Sports] Topic: who would YOU keep? Thoughts appreciated!
djterryt send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/15/2013 5:20:32 AM
K guys....in a 10 team league...PPR and yardage heavy...quarterbacks most valuable position in the league. We keep 5 from the previous season, and draft 15 additional players.

Scoring is as follows:

Quarterbacks=
1 pt per 5 yards passing
1 pt per completion
4 pts TD
1 pt per 2 yards rushing
6 pts rushing TD

RB =
1 pt per 2 yards rushing
1 pt per 2 yards receiving
1 pt per reception
6 pts either rushing or receiving TD

WR=
 same as RB points

So this being said, the 4 obvious keepers are:

Aaron Rodgers
Cam Newton
Ray Rice 
Calvin Johnson

So i must choose between Matt Forte and Demaryius Thomas as my 5th and final keeper. Based on this....who would YOU keep?

Just FYI, i am defending champ and have the 10/11 picks (snake style) in the draft.

What would YOU do? Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.

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#2
Posted: 8/15/2013 9:04:59 AM
You are in a tough position. My first question is, can you start two quarterbacks? If not, I think you need to let Newton go and keep forte and thomas. If you can start two qbs, then you're really in a tough spot, but I guess I would lean Thomas even though I think he's a stud, the others have more value imo.


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#3
Posted: 8/15/2013 12:44:06 PM
I gotta say the scoring in just crazy. I think its a coin toss between Forte and Thomas, but given that it is PPR and that is Forte's forte, Id lean the RB.
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#4
Posted: 8/15/2013 1:53:20 PM
thanks for the responses guys....i really appreciate it....

Tundra you are telling me....we HAVE to start:

2 QB
3 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 FLEX
1 K 
1 TEAM D

And to make my situation even MORE difficult....our pool is straight keepers and draft...no waivers..no supplementary draft no playoffs nothing just straight regular season head to head. So not only do i have to gage who can possibly net the most points...but i have to almost try to gage who stays healthiest the longest.

Not to mention, i am already in a tough spot considering both of my quarterbacks have same bye weeks, and D.T. and Megatron have the same byes as well....

Maybe if i get time tonight ill post the keepers of the other teams (or projected ones anyways)....running backs are few and far between and i am afraid that if i DUMP forte i will regret it.....esp with Trestman as head coach and his history previously as play caller with charlie garner and byner..etc..

My stat "projector" on FF today shows D.T netting 776 points and Matt Forte netting 936.

The bum ankle of Forte and his injury woes last year scare me..
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#5
Posted: 8/15/2013 4:56:18 PM
Interesting league. Based on the fact that you start 2 QBs, I think you have no choice but to drop Thomas. Starting 3 RBs is pretty high. I would gamble and say I actually like Forte more than Rice just bc or Pierce, but don't think you can cut either. You can't cut either QB, nor Megatron, so sorry Thomas, but it's you.
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Masterking send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 8/17/2013 1:37:31 PM

Matt

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#7
Posted: 8/18/2013 3:04:16 AM
Any insight on forte contract or injury situation?
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#8
Posted: 8/18/2013 4:12:33 AM
ok lets go a little deeper here....remember no waivers no roster changes period once the draft is complete for the whole season! What i have done is listed the order of draft, 1-9 with their "projected keepers"  . I have last pick of round 1 first pick round 2....i am so stuck. With the low level of talent in the draft has really messed up my thought process of which direction to go. MAYBE YOU CAN HELP?

 

team 1 pick 1- 

 

Josh Freeman, Victor Cruz, Ryan Mathews, Michael Turner and toss up between (Percy Harvin- if they decide , or Brandon Weeden)...yes his team is this bad.

 

Projected pick- Colin Kaepernick?

 

team 2 pick 2-

 

Tony Romo, Trent Richardson, Matt Schaub, DeSean Jackson and (toss up between Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith )

 

Projected pick- Alfred Morris (or Matt Forte - IF i dumped him)

 

team 3 pick 3-

 

Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, CJ Spiller, DeMarco Murray 

 

Projected pick- Best running back on the board, if Forte and Morris OTB, I am assuming Le'Veon Bell or Randall Cobb/D.T (if i dump him)

 

team 4 pick 4-

 

Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Jimmy Graham 

 

Projected pick- best wide receiver on the board, if Cobb not taken last round i suspect he goes here-or a Pierre Garcon/Reggie Wayne/Marques Colston type of receiver. IF i dump DT, he will fall nowhere past this point IMO

 

team 5 pick 5-

 

Michael Vick,Matt Ryan, AJ Green, Marshawn Lynch - toss up between Mike Wallace/Vernon Davis

 

projected pick-  Lamar Miller or Steven Jackson? or one of the receivers listed above?

 

team 6  pick 6-

 

RG 3 , Peyton Manning, Brandon Marshall , Reggie Bush, Roddy White

 

Projected pick- best running back on the board.

 

Team 7 Pick 7

 

 Jay Cutler , Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dez Bryant , Darren McFadden

 

Projected pick- Andy Dalton/ Ben Roethlisberger or best RB or WR on the board.

 

team 8 pick 8-

 

 Tom Brady , Matthew Stafford , Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald

 

Projected pick - Best RB available on the board.

 

team 9 pick 9-

 

 Frank Gore , LeSean McCoy, Doug Martin, Maurice Jones Drew, Wes Welker

 

Projected picks - Andy Dalton / Ben (whichever wasn't selected above) or Sam Bradford.

 


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#9
Posted: 8/18/2013 4:13:19 AM

eam 10...so NOW DOWN TO ME......so based on these other teams needs, it is CERTAIN that if i dump Forte OR D.T. - the hope of REDRAFTING them is slim to none. So this is how i see the first round going in NO PARTICULAR ORDER:

 

Colin Kapernick

Alfred Morris 

Matt Forte / D.T. (whichever I dump)

Randall Cobb

Lamar Miller

LeVeon Bell

Ben Roelisberger/Reggie Bush (whichever team 6 dumps)

Andy Dalton

Marques Colston/Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Bowe?

 

 

 

 

So I know this takes a lot of thinking….but if you were in MY position drafting 10/11? Which 2 players would YOU take?

 

I am thinking of even taking a number 3 QB early just cause I am afraid that if I wait till rounds 3 and 4 that not enough starters would be readily available and Rodgers and Newton have same byes?

 

What do you guys think???

 

 

 

Anyone that responds , I REALLY appreciate you taking the time and don’t mind shipping you a bottle or something if I winJ….again

 

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#10
Posted: 8/18/2013 4:23:49 AM
Remaining pool of players after ones listed above:

QUARTERBACKS

Phillip Rivers
Joe Flacco 
Sam Bradford
Carson Palmer
Brandon Weeden

RUNNING BACKS

Steven Jackson
David Wilson
Chris Ivory 
Darren Sproles
Montee Ball
Ronnie Hillman
Rashard Mendenhall
Stevan Ridley 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Vincent Jackson
Pierre Garcon
Reggie Wayne (assuming not taken before)
Marques Colston (assuming not taken before)
Dwayne Bowe
Steve Smith
Torrey Smith
Danny Amendola 
Eric Decker
Tavon Austin

As for the original Forte question....this is WHY i was leaning towards keeping Forte because the talent level remaining at RB is lacking once i get to draft....but health concerns last 2 seasons scare me.

Which of the above TWO would you draft at 10-11 ? or do you think there is a younger player who is worth taking a gamble on....considering its keeper league?

ie. Daryl Richardson?


Thank you guys
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#11
Posted: 8/18/2013 11:30:30 AM

Jesus! That's a shallow pool at RB. That makes the decision much easier. Forte.

Id really have to crunch the numbers on your whacky scoring but on the surface my board would be - Ridley, S. Jackson, Wayne,V Jackson, Sproles, Bowe

As for the young players to target.

LaMichael James, Eddie Lacy, Shoelace Robinson (check on his progress, he is still very raw), Mark Ingram, Joseph Randle, Christine Michael/Robert Turbin (whosever #2),

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#12
Posted: 8/18/2013 1:03:21 PM
thanks biz...i figured with the shallow (VERY shallow) talent remaining at RB, that Forte would definitely be the answer.

Now here is the million dollar question, looking at this "first round simulation" these are basically the starting quarterbacks that would be remaining once it got to my draft position:

Sam Bradford
Phillip Rivers (possible)
Alex Smith 
Carson Palmer 
Joe Flacco (possible)
Ben Roelisberger (possible?)
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
EJ Manuel/Kevin Kolb (whoever starts.)
Matt Flynn 
Christian Ponder / Matt Cassell (whoever starts)
Geno Smith/ Mark Sanchez
Chad Henne

So that leaves about 13 starting quarterbacks left. Both of my starters have bye week 4, so my concern also is IF i don't take a 3rd quarterback at LEAST to cover the bye and also- with the injury to Bulaga and Cam's constant contact with tackles and sacks- i almost feel the need to secure the QB position ; because they are so valuable in our league.

Should i take one of these QB's at 10-11? or do i wait till 30-31 and HOPE that 1-2 of them are available? OR, do i just wait till 30-31 and draft only ONE QB? and play one week with 1 quarterback?

So options are:

A: at 10-11 say...say i draft Alex Smith or something? and the BEST player on the board regardless if WR or RB.- then at 30-31 may possibly have enough to take a 4th STARTER- or best player on the board. (??

B: draft the best 2 players on the board 10/11 and gamble on a 3rd starting QB to be there by pick 30.

C: dont even worry about the 2 starters having the same bye, throw away one week (4) hope they stay healthy and draft one backup later in the draft and focus on making WR and RB better?

(keep in mind there is no fantasy playoffs, and no form of acquisition in this pool - so 1 injury can cost you the season- and in a rare case- 1 loss can possibly cost you the pool- i saw a guy win being 15-2 )

See in my opinion, last 2 years - the way that i won was having the solid foundation of starting  5- having minimal injuries (matt forte, willis magahee last season) and since wide receivers were so readily available- i gave myself 2 big ones,  Mega whom i kept and D.T - which i rolled the dice on in round 3 of draft and paid off huge- then having average joes who ended up contributing in specific times - i.e.. Davonn Bess, Malcolm Floyd, Randy Moss, Shonn Green, Willis Magahee and Donald Brown.

So this way i knew that if i left receiver help late in draft and was thin for the exception of WR 1 and WR2. So during a regular week i would go 4 RB and 3 WR instead of 3 RB and 4 WR.

I figured if it was easier to solidify QB/RB positions EARLY (positions of DIRE need ) in rounds 1-2 then i could HOPEFULLY take a shot at an "average on paper" receiver who can pay out big dividends - like D.T was last year.

If you were in my spot though- and KEPT FORTE and drafted 10-11 who would you take?

Keep in mind starting lineup with the 5 keepers would look like this:

QB 1 - AARON RODGERS (BYE 4)
QB 2 - CAM NEWTON (BYE 4)
RB 1 - RAY RICE (BYE 8)
RB2 -MATT FORTE (BYE 8)
RB 3 - (OPEN)
FLEX - (OPEN)
WR 1- CALVIN JOHNSON (BYE 9)
WR 2- (OPEN)
WR 3 -(OPEN)
TE- OPEN
K
D

BENCH

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.




 
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#13
Posted: 8/19/2013 1:53:08 PM
So based on my situation and the running backs that are left...


Do i take Steven Ridley , David Wilson or Daryl Richardson?

I have this gut feeling that Richardson will have a huge year and i cant figure out why lol...
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