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Author: [Fantasy Sports] Topic: Fantasy RB Situation for all 32 Teams
blstuart send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/1/2011 10:48:12 PM

Wanted to give a few thoughts on the RB situation for all 32 teams. Don't want to type a ton so I don't plan on going into too much detail. Would love to discuss any of these situations.

Patriots:
Tough to know what to make of this situation. Green Ellis overachieved last year and will be over drafted this year. If the Pats had much faith in him they wouldn't have drafted 2 RBs (Vereen & Ridley) in the first 3 rounds. Probably put Green Ellis in the low 30s at RB. Woodhead returns as well and will likely get passing down and some 3rd down work. He may not be worth drafting in standard leagues but could have some PPR value. Watch Vereen as a sleeper. All and all I avoid this RB situation on draft day.

Jets:
Shonn Greene should get plenty of opportunities. He'll be the workhorse back and 300 carries is quite possible. LT just took a paycut and it sounds like Joe McKnight will be getting carries ahead of him. Take Greene as a top 20 RB, stash McKnight on the end of the bench, and forget about LT.

Dolphins:
Like the rookie Daniel Thomas. Between the tackles back with decent speed. Somewhere in the low to mid 20s is probably about right for him but the addition of Reggie Bush limits his potential. If the Dolphins really think Bush can hold up for 12-15 touches a game like Sparano said then they're crazy. Someone likely overdrafts Bush. I have him 40 at RB and would bump him up a little more in PPRs. Don't expect him to play all 16 games.

Bills:
Fred Jackson has proved he can be a top 25 back and will come as nice value in the majority of drafts where he seems to going in the upper 20s and low 30s. Like Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller has much more value in a PPR. Non PPRs he's barely a top 50 back.

Steelers:
Finally, an easy one. There's Mendenhall, Mendenhall, and Mendenhall. Top 10 RB and a solid 1st round pick.

Bengals:
Cedric Benson is a lazy bum. However, he's a lazy bum that will get the majority of the carries in Cincinnati. He does have a pretty low ceiling but anything in the late 20s is probably reasonable.

Ravens:
Ray Rice was already an elite back and the addition of fullback Vonta Leach helps even more. Rice is a for sure top 5 overall pick and in PPRs could end up the top overall player.

Browns:
Worried about all the carries Hillis got last year. Major afraid a drop off is coming. He's going as about the 10th-12th back off the board. Seems too high to me. I'm thinking late teens is more appropriate. He's a risk for sure. Also keep an eye on Hardesty. I've read where the staff wants to get him involved. Worth a late round shot. Should be able to get him in the 40th-50th back range.

Texans:
The loss of Vonta Leach is bigger than most people will make it out to be. That being said I still have Arian Foster as #1 but just barely over the next guy on this list.

Titans:
The addition of Matt Hasselbeck was huge for Chris Johnson. Now defenses have to honor the pass at least part of the time. If Foster's still #1 then Johnson might be 1b.

Jaguars:
I have serious concerns about MJD. Not really sure how healthy he is right now and if the rumors about micro fracture surgery are true then he's even riskier in fantasy drafts. He's no longer a for sure 1st round fantasy pick. I have him as my 10th RB and see him dropping in fantasy drafts. That being said watch for Jennings. He did a decent job when MJD was hurt last year and is someone I will be targeting late in drafts. There will likely be 40 backs that go ahead of him so tons of value.

 

Colts:
If it wasn't for Peyton Manning's insistance then Joseph Addai wouldn't have returned. He has a decent grasp of the offense though and is a top 30 back. But since he's an injury waiting to happen, keep an eye on rookie Delome Carter. He's someone you can get in the last couple rounds and could be worth a stash. Donald Brown can't block and thus won't play much. He has no value.

 

Chiefs:
This is my team and I love Jamal Charles but the NFLs toughest schedule scares me a little. He's still a top 7 or 8 overall pick though. Ignore Thomas Jones. He's finished.

Raiders:
Run Dmc arrived last year and was a top 10 back despite missing a couple games. He is an injury risk but I'd expect another top 10 season. Bush will spell McFadden and doesn't have much value unless he gets hurt. He's going in the early 40s at RB which is probably about right.

Chargers:
Matthews showed up to camp out of shape and has now lost his passing down work as well as his GL carries. I have dropped him to my low 20s at RB and there's a good chance he could fall even more. But of course Matthews' loss is Tolbert's gain. And Tolbert can be had at a steal in the mid to late 30s at RB.

 

Broncos:
John Fox wanted a new lead back but couldn't get it done in free agency. Moreno will stay as the starter and is a middle of the round to low end RB #2. Take him in the early 20s. He is an injury risk though and new addition Willis McGahee will steal some carries. Don't be fooled into thinking McGahee is worth anything though. He's finished.

 

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#2
Posted: 8/1/2011 10:49:10 PM

Giants:
They managed to finally get Bradshaw resigned which was a must. He's a top 15 back. Jacobs is worth a bench spot on most fantasy rosters. I rank him in the mid 30s.

Eagles:
I give you the new Brian Westbrook, Lesean McCoy. He's a top 10 overall pick in most drafts and top 5 in PPRs.

Redskins:
This situation is a mess. Right now it sounds like Ryan Torain and the newly acquired Tim Hightower will compete for the starting job. The rookie Roy Helu should factor into the rotation as well. At this moment none are top 35 RBs.

Cowboys:
I've never been a Felix Jones fan but with the lack of RB depth he's worth a shot in mid 20s. I think Tashard Choice is actually the best back on the team but Jason Garrett's an idiot. However, Choice is banged up right now as is rookie Demarco Murray. Choice is still worth a late round shot though. But remember all of these backs are injury risks.

Bears:
Matt Forte had a great season in year 1 of the Martz offense and I expect it to continue. He's going as a top 15 RB and deservedly so. I have him at 12. Maybe bump him up even a little more in PPRs. Ignore the Marion Barber pickup. He's finished and won't have an impact on Forte's production.

Vikings:
The lack of a field stretching WR and a horrible offensive line will make life difficult on Adrian Peterson. He's still an elite back but I would take Foster & Johnson ahead of him. In a PPR move Rice & McCoy above him as well.

Packers:
Ryan Grant has been named the clear starter and is a steal right now in fantasy drafts where he's regularly going in the late 20s. I have him just inside my top 20 RBs but don't get too carried away because James Starks will get some work as well. I think Starks is draftable as well in the mid to late 30s at RB.

Lions:
Turf toe limited Jahvid Best most of last season but we did see early in the year what he can do. Rookie Mikel Leshoure could be a major factor in the offensive as well. He's the between the tackles runner that Best isn't and should get GL work. Best is worth a shot in the mid to low 20s at RB and Leshoure probably mid to low 30s. Yahoo does rank Leshoure as their 22 overall RB though which seems extremely high.

Panthers:
Not a clue why Carolina paid an aging Deangelo Williams who can't stay healthy all that money. Especially when they have a better RB in Jonathan Stewart. But with that big contract Williams will start and is probably sneaks inside the top 20. Stewart is worth grabbing in the late 20s and hanging onto. Stupid stuipid Panthers.

Bucs:
LeGarrette Blount burst on the scene last year as an undrafted rookie and wound up rushing for over 1,000 yards. I read where he's much more comfortable with the playbook now and they'll look to get him involved even more. Most rankings I see have Blount about 20 which seems low to me. Once Steven Jackson and Forte are gone I feel comfortable taking Blount. He checks in at 13 in my RB rankings.

Falcons:
I'm one that believes Michael Turner has seen too many carries the last few years and will begin to break down this season. He's going as about the 9th or 10th back in most drafts and there's no way I could ever take him there. Mid teens seems more appropriate to me. Jason Snelling is a free agent and not sure they'll end up bringing him back or not. The rookie Quiz Rodgers is nothing more than a passing down back and return man.

Saints:
New Orleans traded up to get Mark Ingram so expect to see plenty of him immediately. He'll get early down and GL work. The majority of sites have him in the mid 20s and I think that seems about right. Sproles was just added to take over the Reggie Bush role. Pierre Thomas is likely to do some splitting with Sproles. Not sure I have interest in either. Maybe in the mid 40s or 50s but anything before that seems too early.

49ers:
Their gameplan will once again be built around Frank Gore. Problem is he absolutely, positively, 100%, without a shadow of a doubt, miss a couple of games. If he could ever play an entire season he could be a top 5 back. Instead he's around 9 or 10 which is still pretty respectable. They drafted Kendall Hunter I would guess spells Gore instead of Anthony Dixon. But it doesn't matter since neither is draftable.

Rams:
Whenever I mention Steven Jackson the first thing someone says is "he can't stay healthy." That seems to me like a misconception since he's only missed 1 game the last 2 seasons. With Bradford in his second year I expect the Rams offense to improve and Jackson's TD total to rise from last year's modest 6. I put him right by Gore in the 9-11 range.

Cardinals:
Whisenhunt just announce Beanie Wells as the starter and rookie Ryan Williams as the passing down back. Most sites have Williams overrated and this confirms it. Wells is worth a chance in the early to mid 20s. This could be his last chance so hopefully some motivation there for once. I have Williams in the low to mid 40s. Give him a bump him PPR formats.

Seahawks:
I've never been a Marshawn Lynch fan but as I mentioned a couple times, the Rb depth sucks this year. Since he's a starter a majority carry back he's draftable in the late 20s. But he still sucks. No interest in Justin Forsett.

Would love to hear people's thoughts. GL on a great season everyone

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#3
Posted: 8/1/2011 11:12:49 PM
I think you're spot on with most of your analysis.  Only things I'll add:

Cincy - I don't think Benson finishes the season.  I hate when RB's get over 300+ carries and Benson was ridden hard last year and went no where. I think their backup Scott will become the starter. Looks like a tough year for Cincy.

I agree Hillis & Turner will struggle this year....well atleast struggle for where they are drafter.

Charles could possibly have an amazing year (top 3). I do think he'll lose some carries to McCluster and agree T.Jones is done.

Biggest bust IMO will be Arian Foster...Sophmore jitters and he touched the ball last year over 380+ times.  He'll end up top 10, barely. 


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#4
Posted: 8/2/2011 12:16:23 AM

The mistakes I noticed were:

Fred Jackson is overestimated. CJ Spiller is about to burst onto the scene, diminishing Jackson's value considerably.

You greatly undervalued McFadden. He is a super hot commodity and will be one of the best backs in the league, but on one of the weaker teams though.

I think you undervalued Felix Jones as he should have been the starter the last 2 years. He is finally getting that role and should be a hot commodity as well. Tashard Choice is about as worthless as a 97 Chevy Cavalier.

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#5
Posted: 8/2/2011 12:28:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slikstiks99:

You greatly undervalued McFadden. He is a super hot commodity and will be one of the best backs in the league, but on one of the weaker teams though.

I think he's a top 10 RB and have him #8 on my list. Don't know I can be undervaluing him that much.

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#6
Posted: 8/2/2011 12:32:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slikstiks99:

I think you undervalued Felix Jones as he should have been the starter the last 2 years. He is finally getting that role and should be a hot commodity as well. Tashard Choice is about as worthless as a 97 Chevy Cavalier.

Jones pretty much became the starter last year and did squat with it. Can he stay healthy for anywhere close to 16 games? Haven't seen any signs of it yet. Just don't think he can ever be any more than a 15 touch per game guy which limits his upside. He's 24 in RB rankings right between Daniel Thomas and Fred Jackson. Just don't think I could take him any higher.

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#7
Posted: 8/2/2011 12:36:07 AM

FrozenTundra:

You're probably right that Benson breaks down and doesn't make it through the season. And there's always the chance he gets arrested for the 100th time, gets suspended and doesn't make it through the season.

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#8
Posted: 8/2/2011 12:53:42 AM
good stuff stuart...

couple notes of mine is ray rice value is up now with leach and mcgahee gone and no real presence to steal carries.  

mcfadden is now the real deal although a little scary with the raiders and all the o line changes and garbage qb play, but if hes healthy all year look out

just did a standard yahoo league free b and my backs turned out to be blount, d williams. ingram, d. thomas, torain, and r. williams...was picking last and went with vick and calvin back to back..shitty spot to draft 

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#9
Posted: 8/2/2011 12:59:38 AM
the cowboys are going nowhere with that rb crew, shocked they didnt upgrade but maybe they did with release of mb3..murray was a complete wasted pick and already injured...one of the dumbest picks of the draft.

preseason should be interesting with lions rbs, want to see the split, at worst leshoure will get goal line work, just a matter of how much between the 20s he gets.

even though i selected r. williams, of course before they announced beanie the starter, i thought if they got rid of hightower beanie had breakout ability, now this confirms it.  never was high on r. williams, seems he got worse as his va tech career went and was never a full time guy.  didnt get that pick by them at all
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#10
Posted: 8/3/2011 5:05:13 PM

Couple RB updates:

-The Eagles signed Ronnie Brown as Lesean McCoy's backup. Right now he's probably nothing more than a handcuff pick and only draftable in deep leagues. I don't waste precious bench spots of handcuffs so he's off my draft sheet.

-Kyle Orton being announced the starter in Denver could be a slight benefit to Knowshon Moreno. While Orton isn't suddenly developing a big arm, at least defenses have to give a little respect to the pass. Tebow was likely to see 8 and 9 in the box all game. Maybe bump Moreno up a couple spots. Lock him in right about 20 in your RB rankings.

-St. Louis added Jerious Norwood and continues to look at Cadillac Williams. Neither has any fantasy value.

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#11
Posted: 8/4/2011 4:21:27 PM

Redskins Update:
It's taken all of a week for the first Ryan Torain injury of the season. I'm not sure you want to waste a pick on Mr. Glass regardless how far he slips in drafts.
We'll see Hightower splitting with Helu for now.
Hightower: low 40s at RB; slightly better option in PPRs.
Helu: maybe now he's draftable in the 50s at RB; last couple round flier at best

This will be one of the five worst offenses in football so be very careful with any and all of these backs.

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#12
Posted: 8/5/2011 12:00:56 PM
Great write up blstuart. Thanks for the info. Anyway we can get your 1-20 list at each position? No write up necessary just were you stand on players today.
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#13
Posted: 8/5/2011 12:27:56 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Ktrain:



Great write up blstuart. Thanks for the info. Anyway we can get your 1-20 list at each position? No write up necessary just were you stand on players today.

I started a thread where I listed my top 25 WRs, RBs, & QBs, by ranking and tier.

I have rough RB rankings complete with about 45 guys listed and another 8 guys I'm interested in. WR rankings through about 50 guys and another group of unranked guys I'm interested in. Plus TE and Defense rankings.
If you're interested in those just send me a private message and I can email them to you.

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#14
Posted: 8/5/2011 4:23:32 PM

spot on with most except 2 things..

1. denanglo williams isnt aging, and the only reason he stayed on IR last yr is to not ruin a career on a wasted season..he could have definately returned if they had a shot but there was no pt..carolina will roll into arizona and pound the football down their throats week 1..if they let cam play they got a shot to win on the road..

2. marion barber isnt finished..he will take all goaline carries in chicago and i have no idea why dallas let him go besides to stay under the cap..that being said..agree 100% on everything u said about dallas..between murray and jones injury problems choice might get tons of work..

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#15
Posted: 8/5/2011 4:30:02 PM
and question does cadillac williams addition in st. louis help or hurt jackson...i think it helps the dude stay healthy..
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#16
Posted: 8/5/2011 5:46:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nikki_santoro:

spot on with most except 2 things..

1. denanglo williams isnt aging, and the only reason he stayed on IR last yr is to not ruin a career on a wasted season..he could have definately returned if they had a shot but there was no pt..carolina will roll into arizona and pound the football down their throats week 1..if they let cam play they got a shot to win on the road..

2. marion barber isnt finished..he will take all goaline carries in chicago and i have no idea why dallas let him go besides to stay under the cap..that being said..agree 100% on everything u said about dallas..between murray and jones injury problems choice might get tons of work..

DeAngelo Williams is 28 and entering season 6. The shelf life of a starting NFL runningback is so short. Most guys don't make it much longer as a starter/productive back. I can see maybe 2 more decent years for Williams most. Regardless how long he does last for, I still like Stewart better.

Barber's style of play is why I think he's finished. He's been such a physical back and can't seem to stay healthy. And he's entering his 7th season.
Oh, and I read where the Bears defense was putting a beating on him in practice yesterday. If I that keeps up then I doubt he makes it through camp healthy.

Appreciate the thoughts nikki

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#17
Posted: 8/5/2011 5:48:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by nikki_santoro:

 and question does cadillac williams addition in st. louis help or hurt jackson...i think it helps the dude stay healthy..

A few less touches over the course of the year probably isn't a bad thing for Jackson.
If he goes down though I doubt Caddy & Norwood can carry the load.

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#18
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:35:33 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by FrozenTundra:



Biggest bust IMO will be Arian Foster...Sophmore jitters and he touched the ball last year over 380+ times.  He'll end up top 10, barely. 

Starting to think you could be on to something here. It was definitely worth taking note when they lost Leach. And now, Foster has injured his hamstring in his first practice. Not a great start to the season.

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#19
Posted: 8/6/2011 5:50:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blstuart:

Starting to think you could be on to something here. It was definitely worth taking note when they lost Leach. And now, Foster has injured his hamstring in his first practice. Not a great start to the season.

I think the biggest concern with Foster is whether he can hold on to the ball or not. This was an issue in college and a huge point of emphasis for the Texans. Looks like he's got it, but it is hard to see him having the production of last year. I'm keeping him in a high dollar league so hopefully he can though.

Thanks for the research blstu. Much appreciated.

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#20
Posted: 8/6/2011 9:08:49 PM

Sounds like Hardesty is still having issues with the knee he hurt in LAST YEAR'S camp. Not a good sign.
I was fairly high on him but not sure I could draft him at the moment. Have Hillis 17 in my RB ranks and will think about moving him up a spot or two.

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#21
Posted: 8/7/2011 2:08:05 PM

i enjoyed reading your insight and thoughts. would u mind emailing me the other stuff you have (defenses/TE's and any other stuff not on here)   i would appreciate it, like reading others info to compare it to my listings.. 

i'll friend request u and then i'll PM u my email

thanks and BoL this year

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#22
Posted: 8/7/2011 6:20:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by --phillyfan--:

i enjoyed reading your insight and thoughts. would u mind emailing me the other stuff you have (defenses/TE's and any other stuff not on here)   i would appreciate it, like reading others info to compare it to my listings.. 

i'll friend request u and then i'll PM u my email

thanks and BoL this year

Definitely man. Love sharing my thoughts. Friend me and I can send you that info.

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#23
Posted: 8/8/2011 11:37:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blstuart:

Lions:
Turf toe limited Jahvid Best most of last season but we did see early in the year what he can do. Rookie Mikel Leshoure could be a major factor in the offensive as well. He's the between the tackles runner that Best isn't and should get GL work. Best is worth a shot in the mid to low 20s at RB and Leshoure probably mid to low 30s. Yahoo does rank Leshoure as their 22 overall RB though which seems extremely high.

Seeing where Mikel Leshoure was carted off Lions practice today. No official word yet but reporters on hand have said it looks serious. Jahvid Best stands to potentially make a signficant jump in my RB Rankings.

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#24
Posted: 8/8/2011 12:01:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blstuart:

Seeing where Mikel Leshoure was carted off Lions practice today. No official word yet but reporters on hand have said it looks serious. Jahvid Best stands to potentially make a signficant jump in my RB Rankings.

Torn ACL for LeshoureSeason done.
Tough break for the rookie.

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#25
Posted: 8/8/2011 8:32:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blstuart:

Dolphins:
Like the rookie Daniel Thomas. Between the tackles back with decent speed. Somewhere in the low to mid 20s is probably about right for him but the addition of Reggie Bush limits his potential. If the Dolphins really think Bush can hold up for 12-15 touches a game like Sparano said then they're crazy. Someone likely overdrafts Bush. I have him 40 at RB and would bump him up a little more in PPRs. Don't expect him to play all 16 games.

For some stupid reason the Dolphins have announced Reggie Bush as their starter. I'm too stunned at the moment to know what to say.
Maybe this is like a veterans preference for early in training camp and things will correct themselves by the start of the season. At least I hope so because this line of thought is just stupid.

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