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Author: [Fantasy Sports] Topic: Wide Receiver Discussion
blstuart send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 7/29/2011 3:29:16 AM

Wanted to start a discussion forum for fantasy WRs. In particular I was hoping to start some conversations on some middle of the road and later round WRs.

A couple guys I would appreciate thoughts on are Santana Moss and Ochocinco.


Moss seemingly had a career year in 2010, or at least in receptions with 93 I believe. He's clearly lost a step or 2 making him not much of a deep threat, but Shanahan essentially played in out of the slot last year which led to his big season. The QB situation in Washington does worry me with Beck & Grossman (for all intesive purposes we'll refer to them as Grossbeck). Grossbeck isn't much of a QB and doesn't have garbage for an arm, but dead arm QBs do like slot guys and short quick passes. Plus the Redskins are still lack at WR, even if they do end up signing captain drops Braylon Edwards. I think all this could lead to another nice season for Moss. His average draft position (ADP) of 37 definitely seems low to me. I have him as my 26th ranked WR right now and think anything in the 25-30 range is about right for him.

When I started putting my fantasy rankings together last month I assumed I had no interest in Ochostinko this year. There wasn't a situation I could envision where he'd have much fantasy value. Then enter Belicheat and the Patriots who do a fantastic job with troubled, load mouth players, in the twilight of their career.
I just can't see Deion Branch coming anywhere close to the career numbers he put up last year. Of course Welker will remain Brady's favorite target, and there's the emergence of Gronk & Hernandez at TE, but even after that there are plenty of Brady passes to go around.
No idea right now where he'll be drafted. Did a couple mocks earlier and I was able to get him one time in the mid to late 30s and the other draft someone took him as the 17th! WR. My guess is he'll be over drafted since he's a Patroit probably going in the early 20s. My thoughts would be probably rank him similar to Moss in the mid to late 20s.

Like I said. Please bring on the comments and thoughts. And definitely talk about any WRs (hell, any position) that you're uncertain on.

Let's start a good fantasy discussion guys

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#2
Posted: 7/29/2011 11:52:12 AM

Well obviously Ocho will have a better year since he won't have Palmer throwing the ball four feet over his head every time. I think in a 12 team league you will see him go sometime in round 3. Even with Brady value it seems about right. I think most people are in the same boat this year of waiting on QB since the talent pool is deep at that position. WR and RB will be at a premium and having Tom Brady's deep threat isn't a bad choice. I think Ocho will come to camp with a good attitude and will fit in with N.E. I like his outlook and would be willing to draft him in round 3 especially if I took Brady in round 2.

As for Moss.....well I really don't care for him. Well I shouldn't say that so much as I don't care for his offense. There isn't much around him and on top of that I really don't think he is THAT good of a WR. I'm avoiding him unless he is sitting there in round 6 or 7 of a 12 team league. I'm avoiding anyone in Washington unless it's a RB.

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#3
Posted: 7/29/2011 2:21:30 PM

Completely agree Santan Moss isn't that good of WR. If I thought the Redskins were going to split him out wide all game then he'd definitely be a lot lower on my list. I just don't think Shanahan's going to do that though.
And you're right that Washington's offense is a mess. Armstrong has some talent and is a legit deep threat, but Grossbeck can't throw it deep with any sort of accuracy.
Cooley's on my avoid list. Too much depth at TE for anyone to take a chance on him.
Good luck with that RB situation. No chance Torain can stay healthy for 16 games. Probably more like 10. Not sure what to expect from Helu either. Maybe he can gain value as the season progresses but the lockout makes me a little scared of rookies.

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#4
Posted: 7/29/2011 2:32:51 PM

Not a chance I would take Ochocinco in the 3rd round.
In your scenario, with Brady in the 2nd rd (agree), you've probably taken a RB in the 1st round. That means you're now relying on Ochocinco to be your #1 WR. No way he has that good of a season.
WR's averaging a 3rd round ADP this year include Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, and Miles Austin. All 3 are top 10 WRs in most rankings and near/entering the prime of their career.

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#5
Posted: 7/29/2011 4:55:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blstuart:

Not a chance I would take Ochocinco in the 3rd round.
In your scenario, with Brady in the 2nd rd (agree), you've probably taken a RB in the 1st round. That means you're now relying on Ochocinco to be your #1 WR. No way he has that good of a season.
WR's averaging a 3rd round ADP this year include Mike Wallace, Vincent Jackson, and Miles Austin. All 3 are top 10 WRs in most rankings and near/entering the prime of their career.

I just did a 14 team mock draft and took Ocho in round 6. I agree with your assessment on him. I had him way to high but I would be willing to take chance on him in round 5 or 6. I also took Plaxico in round 8 I believe. I like to try different things in mocks and not just do the same routine so I'm not saying this as a strategy. Just throwing around ideas.

I do think though that if someone were to draft Brady that they might want to look into taking Ochocinco a little earlier than expected. I he will be the deep threat and Welker will still garner attention.

Good discussion points blstuart. I look forward to keeping fantasy conversations going in the future.

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#6
Posted: 7/29/2011 7:41:14 PM

Always happy to get a good conversation going. Appreciate the input.

There are lots of other players I want people's opinions on as well. I'll be posting tons of thoughts and discussion topics on here over the next month.

Love fantasy football and hope we have some great seasons Mr. Wild Thing Vaughn

 

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#7
Posted: 7/30/2011 3:32:39 PM

This is from a Joel Beall fantasy football article on foxsports.com titled "Buyer Beware."

Brandon Lloyd
With the departure of Brandon Marshall, Lloyd was given a platform to finally realize his potential and delivered, leading the league with 1,448 yards and adding 11 touchdowns. Although Tim Tebow at the helm won’t affect Lloyd’s standing, a healthy Demaryius Thomas and the expanded implementation of Eric Decker should put a dent into Lloyd’s output.

A healthy Demaryius Thomas you say? Interesting since the guy tore his Achilles.....in February. I could understand if this article was written right after last season, but it wasn't. It was written July 13th! Now come on. This is just lazy and very poor research by a guy that does this for a living.

I do agree though that Lloyd is someone to be a little cautious of. Even though Orton remains on the roster I expect Tebow will end up as the week 1 starter. While he certainly has superior arm strength to Orton, Tebow doesn't yet have the accuracy or experience reading defenses. There will be plenty of situations where Tebow tucks it and runs, where last year Orton would've fired it down field to Lloyd,
And of course replacing pass happy Josh McDaniels with run happy John Fox won't do Lloyd any favors either.
Don't completely cross him off your radar though because he's still good for a Top 25 WR season. I have him at #24 and think anything 20-25 at WR is pretty reasonable. Just taper your expectations a little for Lloyd (but not because of a WR that isn't playing this season).

On a sidenote, watch out for Demaryius Thomas in 2012. He has big time WR talent.

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#8
Posted: 7/30/2011 5:19:30 PM

Definitley didn't see Brandon Lloyd coming last year at all. Great year for him and I'm sure most people found him in FA and didn't draft him late.

I have to admit I have owned Jonathon Stewart and D Will in leagues the last two seasons and because of that I hate John Fox. I have no clue how he is a head coach. For example, last year in Carolina he used Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen as his QB's. He emphasized the pass game, with inexperienced QB's,  over the running games despite having two quality RB's. I don't trust him to do the right thing.

I really would like to hear how Fox plans to run the offense this year before I invest a 3rd round choice in Lloyd. Not because of his talent, cause obviously after last year he proved he can play. But basically because I have no faith in John Fox to play to his strengths. I do think starting Tebow over Orton will affect Lloyd's numbers this year, in addition to Thomas taking targets away.

If I was able to land Lloyd at a value spot though I would say it would be worth taking a flyer on Orton as a really late round draft choice. People talk about being shy on Vick because his style of play makes him prone to injury. Shouldn't the same thing be said about Tebow. Now I understand that Tebow won't be a starter on a standard scoring 12 team fantasy league, but wouldn't Orton make a nice little insurance policy?

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#9
Posted: 7/30/2011 6:35:27 PM

Demaryius Thomas is out for the season! That's why I posted that article from Fox Sports.com. It's ridiculous that a fantasy football writer doesn't know that.

No f'n way Lloyd should be taken anywhere close to the 3rd round. I'm seeing him with an ADP of 19 amongst WRs. I would guess that translates to somewhere around the late 5th or early 6th.

Plus Lloyd has no history of putting up numbers anywhere close to what he did last year. Seems like he was more a product of the situation with a pass happy coach.

As far as the Orton insurance goes, NO! You should never ever draft a QB that doesn't even start for his own team. Your bench spots in fantasy football are way too important to tie one up with a guy that may never see the field. And then you would still need another QB that actually plays as your backup. So now you have 2 bench spots tied up with QBs. Doesn't make sense.

Oh, and John Fox is a running coach. Always has been. Trust me when I say Carolina tried to run the ball last year. Problem was that their QB situation was such as joke nobody had to honor the pass. Teams could pretty much put 8 in the box against them with no worry about getting beat deep.

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#10
Posted: 7/30/2011 7:12:50 PM

Lol. Sorry about my ignorance about Thomas' situation. I honestly haven't paid any attention to injury reports yet with all the FA and trades going on. That is funny though. It snuck under my radar too but, as you said, I don't write a Fantasy Football column for a living.

I basically have a few teams I just won't touch players on unless I get them at real value. Washington, Denver, Seattle, etc.

I see where you're coming from on the Orton insurance.

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#11
Posted: 7/30/2011 7:40:47 PM

Denver's offense is a step above Seattle & Washington but definitely no fantasy stars on any of those teams.

Denver:
-Tebow could be a high end QB2 thanks to the rushing yards/scores he'll get.
-Already discussed Lloyd: Low end WR2 high end WR3
-Moreno's probably worth a shot as a middle/low end RB2. I like him a little more than some and probably put him about 19/20 at RB. Injury risk for sure.
-Can't see much else on the Broncos worth anything. McGahee has no fantasy relevance. I'd assume Royal will start opposite Lloyd and Decker will be their 3rd WR. I wouldn't consider either even in deep leagues.

-Seattle
-Lynch is probably a low end RB2 or RB3. Kind of think the guys a bum but the RB depth is so terrible this year and he's going to get the ball. I'd still be extremely cautious.
-Too bad for Sidney Rice that Tavaris Jackson is his QB. Guess this what he gets for going after the most money possible regardless of team. I will have to look up how Rice did in games Jackson started in Minny but I doubt it's pretty. Rice has top 20 talent but he'll never get there in this situation. I'd rank him late 20s and hope for a high end WR3 and low end WR2 if you're lucky.
-Mike Williams' fantasy value is now zero.

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#12
Posted: 7/30/2011 10:46:34 PM
I really like Percy Harvin this year.  As always your number two and three receivers are a very important part of a fantasy roster.  I would like to get three starts like hypothetically.... Roddy White, Percy Harvin, and Mike Williams Tampa Bay.  That is something I would consider strong.   I still think Mike Williams from Seattle still has some value.  He is a talented receiver and will still make and impact.  Sidney Rice will be covered by the best corner this season which will possibly open up more looks William's way.  I don't like Ocho Cinco mostly because New England spreads their offense around so much.  Santonio Holmes continues to produce and if Braylon Edwards leaves his stock rises immediately.
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#13
Posted: 7/30/2011 10:48:22 PM
Santana Moss I don't trust and would not pick.
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#14
Posted: 7/31/2011 10:59:35 AM
I would not draft Moss or Lloyd both will be oVER values, especially Lloyd, career year,

 Ocho Cinco will prob be overvalues as well, 

 Look for guys like Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Maclin is someone I love
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#15
Posted: 7/31/2011 6:23:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Kazual12:

 I really like Percy Harvin this year.  As always your number two and three receivers are a very important part of a fantasy roster.  I would like to get three starts like hypothetically.... Roddy White, Percy Harvin, and Mike Williams Tampa Bay.  That is something I would consider strong.   I still think Mike Williams from Seattle still has some value.  He is a talented receiver and will still make and impact.  Sidney Rice will be covered by the best corner this season which will possibly open up more looks William's way.  I don't like Ocho Cinco mostly because New England spreads their offense around so much.  Santonio Holmes continues to produce and if Braylon Edwards leaves his stock rises immediately.

Like Harvin as well. The Vikings were looking to get him the ball more even if Rice did return. Now he's going to have to be McNabb's go to guy. Not much else to like at WR for the Vikings with Jenkins & Berrian.
Looks like Harvin is going low 20s at WR in most drafts. I think that sounds about right so you really want him then you'll probably have to reach just a little bit.
A WR core of White, Williams (TB), and Harvin would be nice but probably isn't likely in standard 12 team leagues. You might be able to do it but that might not leave you in great shape at other positions.

Sounds like the Cardinals have major interest in Edwards. Would be a great situation for Edwards fantasy value. Have to keep on eye on this one.

Appreciate the input kazual12

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#16
Posted: 7/31/2011 6:28:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by stickman80733:

I would not draft Moss or Lloyd both will be oVER values, especially Lloyd, career year,


 Ocho Cinco will prob be overvalues as well, 

 Look for guys like Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Maclin is someone I love

I was disappointed to see that GB resigned James Jones. Had Nelson around 27 or 28 at WR but now he'll have to move down a little. Still think there's some upside with him though.

Like Maclin. He seems to be going in drafts as about the 15th or 16th WR taken which it seems about right.

Thanks stickman. GL this year

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#17
Posted: 8/1/2011 9:39:33 AM
I think Ocho has potential to be a top 5 WR in Bradys pass happy offense, similar to Moss's stay in NE. He is the playmaker and home run threat on offense and I'm almost positive Brady will take full advantage of his skill set. There is some risk in drafting him early due to the depth they have at WR and TE but no one on the roster has Ochos skill set. I would probably take him in the 4th but someone will probably reach in the 3rd. I think we can say so long to Ocho Cinco this year. As far as fantasy goes, Chad Johnson is back.
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#18
Posted: 8/1/2011 4:42:02 PM

Ochocince HAS to have a better year since he won't have Carson Palmer air mailing balls 4 feet over his head. I honestly don't know how Chad didn't knock Palmer out for almost getting him killed a few times in the last two years.

I agree with Kappa, someone is going to reach for him in rd 3. It always happens with someone of this nature. Just like someone will reach for Plax Burriss this year as well. It happens with people, someone panics and reaches. Just human nature. I don't see him putting up Moss type numbers but he will have a good season. I actually think this might help Gronkowski or Deon Branch.

They should see a lot of looks with Welker and Ocho getting attention deep and underneath. I think Gronkowski may have a top 3 TE season even with Hernandez there.

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#19
Posted: 8/1/2011 8:30:10 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CappaDon:

I think Ocho has potential to be a top 5 WR in Bradys pass happy offense, similar to Moss's stay in NE. He is the playmaker and home run threat on offense and I'm almost positive Brady will take full advantage of his skill set. There is some risk in drafting him early due to the depth they have at WR and TE but no one on the roster has Ochos skill set. I would probably take him in the 4th but someone will probably reach in the 3rd. I think we can say so long to Ocho Cinco this year. As far as fantasy goes, Chad Johnson is back.

Top 5? Homerun hitter?
Come on now! Let's not get carried away. We're talking about a guy in the twilight of his career with a quickly declining skill set.
This is not like the Moss situation. People are just making that up because they don't know any better and it sounds good. Moss still had elite speed to burn defenses deep when he came to NE. Even in his prime Ochocinco wasn't that type of WR. And he's never at any point had Moss' skill set.

Think what you want but top 5 is crazy. I hope guys in my leagues think the same thing. You take him in the 4th round and I'll happily take someone like Dez Bryant or Mike Williams.

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#20
Posted: 8/2/2011 1:10:35 AM
dont get why the vikings wouldnt sign a malcom floyd or braylon to really get that offense going.  last year when rice was out that offense was terrible.  now i dont think rice will be great in seattle, but he helped harvin out a lot.

guys that seem overrated...bowe (just cant see that again without charlie, lloyd as you mentioned, and rice

santana moss is just undraftable with skins qbs.

dez bryant could outproduce miles easily, but romo loves miles.

ocho wont be on my team and i may regret it but think the wrs are better their with branch tate and welker than they were when randy was in town, i know they are plus two good tight ends so spread city

plax should give us braylon #s from last year

loved jordy nelson to be bill schroeder on roids, but not now with jones back

chargers need a wr2 badly with crayton there, thinking they may just get a discount on floyd for a year which would be smart both ways.

saw maclin mentioned but something not right with him with mono or something since march and has lost 15lbs and hasnt been at camp.  really worth monitoring and helping desean get paid.

too bad with harbaugh, but wont touch a san fran wr, cant believe they havent signed anybody there.  sad.

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#21
Posted: 8/2/2011 1:43:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thisguyiswise:


guys that seem overrated...bowe (just cant see that again without charlie, lloyd as you mentioned, and rice

My thoughts exactly. Even if Charlie did return there was no way Bowe could continue to produce TDs anywhere close to that pace. Plus his QB is garbage armed Matt Cassel.

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#22
Posted: 8/2/2011 1:52:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thisguyiswise:


dont get why the vikings wouldnt sign a malcom floyd or braylon to really get that offense going. I don't get why nobody wants either of those receivers.
 
dez bryant could outproduce miles easily, but romo loves miles. Been telling people this for a while. Bryant is more talented but you're right about Romo.

ocho wont be on my team and i may regret it but think the wrs are better their with branch tate and welker than they were when randy was in town, i know they are plus two good tight ends so spread city. Have been wondering about Tate but haven't heard anything about him this year.

plax should give us braylon #s from last year. Where do you rank him at WR? Late 20s? Early 30s?
chargers need a wr2 badly with crayton there, thinking they may just get a discount on floyd for a year which would be smart both ways. Pretty sure it'll be Floyd

saw maclin mentioned but something not right with him with mono or something since march and has lost 15lbs and hasnt been at camp.  really worth monitoring and helping desean get paid. Hadn't heard that about Maclin. Where'd you see that?

too bad with harbaugh, but wont touch a san fran wr, cant believe they havent signed anybody there.  sad. Yeah what the hell are they doing. I'm seeing Crabtree could start the year on the PUP. Maybe they know Smith sucks so bad there's no point to even line anyone up out wide.

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#23
Posted: 8/2/2011 12:42:14 PM

My two favorite value WRs this year are both out injured for multiple weeks

Emmanuel Sanders: out 3 weeks and in a walking boot. He had a couple offseason foot surgeries which I have to think plays a part in this. Keeping a close eye on this.

Jacoby Ford: broken hand and likely out 2 weeks. Fortunately is only competition is the likes of DHB, Louis Murphy, & Chaz Schilens so his starting spot is safe.

Probably have to drop them a little bit in the rankings for right now, but if both return on schedule they should be fine to take in late August and early September drafts. Anyone drafting earlier should be a little more cautious.

 

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#24
Posted: 8/2/2011 6:53:14 PM
Both of those guys will fly under the radar even more now so it may be beneficial provided they are ready to go by week 1. Both of thier spots on their teams should be ok. I don't see any reason they will be jumped in the line up.
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#25
Posted: 8/3/2011 11:11:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blstuart:

Emmanuel Sanders: out 3 weeks and in a walking boot. He had a couple offseason foot surgeries which I have to think plays a part in this. Keeping a close eye on this.

Now he's had a 3rd surgery on that foot. Supposedly it was to "help expedite healing" but that sounds like a load of crap. The 2 procedures he had in the offseason should've already done that. I'm afraid it's worse than originally thought.

Steelers coaches are high on 2nd year WR Antonio Brown and now there's probably a good chance he opens the season ahead of Sanders.

For now Sanders is dropped from my rankings.

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