Is it just me or are those lines on Australia (-12.5) and New Zealand (-13.5) a little light? I can't imagine those spreads don't get bet up a bit as we approach the weekend, no?
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Is it just me or are those lines on Australia (-12.5) and New Zealand (-13.5) a little light? I can't imagine those spreads don't get bet up a bit as we approach the weekend, no?
Currently (at Pinny) New Zealand looks like the only one being hit, but the big action seems to come a lot closer to gametime. I'm still looking to jump on these before any significant move...just have a bit more research to do
I don't even really have a feeling about the other games, but at first glance I lean towards the points.
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Currently (at Pinny) New Zealand looks like the only one being hit, but the big action seems to come a lot closer to gametime. I'm still looking to jump on these before any significant move...just have a bit more research to do
I don't even really have a feeling about the other games, but at first glance I lean towards the points.
I anticipated the NZ vs France line would be about 16.5 and agree that 13.5 is surprising. The New Zealand TAB has just opened it up at 15.5 and I expect they'll take much more for NZ -15.5 than the other way.
However, I'm going to be making my biggest play on the Cup so far on France with the start. NZ may well get away late but I really do feel France can keep this close (ish).
Reasons:
1. France's pool games have provided a far better preparation for this than NZ's. No team in the competition is facing anything close to the disparity of opposition between their hardest pool game and quarterfinal match than NZ. I certainly don't think playing in Cardiff hinders the French at all and they tend to play better when expectations are not high.
2. The selection of Beauxis at first-five. His kicking (both goalkicking and tactical) was superb against Georgia. He might not offer the flair of Michellac but he can knock over penalties in the opposition half and keep NZ pinned in their own territory at other times. His selection heightens the likelihood of a close, tightly-fought game.
3. NZ might not be as good they've been hyped to be. Apart from the opening 30 minutes against Italy they've looked rusty and greatly in need of playing time. The rotation policy of Graham Henry seems to me to have left them still struggling to gel. The calf strain for Dan Carter is a slight worry too, but just as concerning (and something I haven't heard much spoken about) is the fact that he hasn't played a really good game for about a year. The media all still worship him largely on the strength of his extraordinary form during the Lions tour, but that was a long time ago now.
4. NZ not great at the breakdown. This has been a notable deficiency in their games against the minnows. Maybe it'll change with their full-strength loose forward trio but jeez they've been tentative so far. Even the Romanian's were able to maintain possession for significant times and forced 7 turnovers. They commented afterwards about how NZ were soft at the breakdown and I agree.
I may be totally wrong and NZ may be about to explode and put 50 points on France (they've done it a few times against France in recent years) but I don't think their preparation for this game will allow that to happen.
I'm going to hold off on backing France for the moment though as I suspect by gametime I should be able to get +16.5.
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I anticipated the NZ vs France line would be about 16.5 and agree that 13.5 is surprising. The New Zealand TAB has just opened it up at 15.5 and I expect they'll take much more for NZ -15.5 than the other way.
However, I'm going to be making my biggest play on the Cup so far on France with the start. NZ may well get away late but I really do feel France can keep this close (ish).
Reasons:
1. France's pool games have provided a far better preparation for this than NZ's. No team in the competition is facing anything close to the disparity of opposition between their hardest pool game and quarterfinal match than NZ. I certainly don't think playing in Cardiff hinders the French at all and they tend to play better when expectations are not high.
2. The selection of Beauxis at first-five. His kicking (both goalkicking and tactical) was superb against Georgia. He might not offer the flair of Michellac but he can knock over penalties in the opposition half and keep NZ pinned in their own territory at other times. His selection heightens the likelihood of a close, tightly-fought game.
3. NZ might not be as good they've been hyped to be. Apart from the opening 30 minutes against Italy they've looked rusty and greatly in need of playing time. The rotation policy of Graham Henry seems to me to have left them still struggling to gel. The calf strain for Dan Carter is a slight worry too, but just as concerning (and something I haven't heard much spoken about) is the fact that he hasn't played a really good game for about a year. The media all still worship him largely on the strength of his extraordinary form during the Lions tour, but that was a long time ago now.
4. NZ not great at the breakdown. This has been a notable deficiency in their games against the minnows. Maybe it'll change with their full-strength loose forward trio but jeez they've been tentative so far. Even the Romanian's were able to maintain possession for significant times and forced 7 turnovers. They commented afterwards about how NZ were soft at the breakdown and I agree.
I may be totally wrong and NZ may be about to explode and put 50 points on France (they've done it a few times against France in recent years) but I don't think their preparation for this game will allow that to happen.
I'm going to hold off on backing France for the moment though as I suspect by gametime I should be able to get +16.5.
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