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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA coaching rotation system
its_1999_my send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
its_1999_my
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#1
Posted: 4/2/2014 8:17:26 AM
I'm thinking about starting a new system next season based on coaches player rotations. Most books now offer 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter bets on the spread and most of the time they simply divide the full game spread by 4. For example lets say a team is favored by 9 pts. On these kinds of spreads I have seen them layed out as -3, for the 1st quarter and than -2 for each of the 3 remaining quarters but of course most coaches have subbing patterns. For example one team that has a strong pattern going for them are the Golden State Warriors. They rely so much on Curry and there bench isn't that good. In there last 9 games they have been outscored in the 2nd quarter 6 times. Curry usually plays much of if not the entire 1st quarter and than rests for at least 4-6 minutes in the 2nd quarter. So  lets say the Warriors are a -5 pt favorite and it's layed out as -2, -1,-1, and -1. You take the 2nd quarter +1 or the ML of their opponent. The Timberwolves also have a strong trend going as they come out with a bang in the 1st quarter and than fade as the game goes on so you take them 1st quarter and than fade them in the 2nd quarter. 
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#2
Posted: 4/2/2014 8:30:52 AM
So basically if a team relies heavily on 1 or 2 players and they don't have a good bench with chemistry than it's wise to fade their 2nd quarter spread since thats the quarter where their star will most likely be on the bench for the longest duration. The Thunder are another good example if you watched them play you know that either Durant or Westbrook have to be on the floor at all times or else there bench gets dominated. In there last 10 games they have only won the 2nd quarter 3 times. 7 other times they have been outscored or they scored the same amount of points as there opponents. Since the Thunder are one of the better teams in the NBA there almost always gonna be favored and the 2nd quarter spread will be a minus not a plus. So if you took the + 2nd quarter spread of their opponents you are likely 7-3 or 6-4 during that period. 
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fadeyoulosers
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#3
Posted: 4/7/2014 11:56:35 AM
nice lil system start tracking all the teams in NBA that are in similar situations.



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#4
Posted: 4/8/2014 2:05:16 AM
Since posting this thread on the 2nd and beginning on the 3rd of this month the Twolves, Thunder and Warriors are a collective 2-5 on covering the 2nd quarter spread. 
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#5
Posted: 4/8/2014 2:06:14 AM
Therefore if you faded them in the 2nd quarter you would be up 3 units minus the juice. 
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