Stats for underdogs

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Stats for underdogs
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/1/2014 4:48:12 PM
Playing lately with sdql database and here are some interesting results so far:  Dogs of up to +110 on RL gave from 2008 a lot of profit (hitting about 70%). You would be about +5,000$ if you played from 2008. Will look for other interesting stats, contribution is appreciated

0<tp:line and 100<t:line and 110>=t:line and site=away and season = 2013
SU:    73-64 (0.36, 53.3%)      avg line: 107.2 / -117.3      on / against: +$1,442 / -$2,175      ROI: +10.5% / -13.5%
RL:    98-37 (1.74, 72.6%)      avg line: -195.3 / 180.2      on / against: +$2,495 / -$3,100      ROI: +9.5% / -23.0%
2012
SU:    69-84 (0.10, 45.1%)      avg line: 107.3 / -117.7      on / against: -$990 / +$240      ROI: -6.5% / +1.3%
RL:    99-54 (1.51, 64.7%)      avg line: -188.7 / 172.0      on / against: -$188 / -$675      ROI: -0.6% / -4.3%

2011
SU:    62-65 (0.17, 48.8%)      avg line: 107.2 / -117.2      on / against: +$138 / -$758      ROI: +1.1% / -5.1%
RL:    89-37 (1.66, 70.6%)      avg line: -197.0 / 180.5      on / against: +$1,688 / -$2,285      ROI: +6.8% / -18.1%

KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/1/2014 4:49:25 PM
2010
SU:    52-54 (0.08, 49.1%)      avg line: 107.5 / -117.5      on / against: +$176 / -$696      ROI: +1.7% / -5.6%
RL:    71-33 (1.48, 68.3%)      avg line: -190.2 / 174.1      on / against: +$894 / -$1,445      ROI: +4.5% / -13.5%

2009
SU:    70-76 (-0.10, 47.9%)      avg line: 108.1 / -118.1      on / against: $0 / -$700      ROI: 0.0% / -4.1%
RL:    94-52 (1.40, 64.4%)      avg line: -184.4 / 171.8      on / against: -$225 / -$435      ROI: -0.8% / -3.0%

2008
SU:    87-86 (0.31, 50.3%)      avg line: 107.7 / -117.7      on / against: +$750 / -$1,620      ROI: +4.3% / -8.0%
RL:    118-55 (1.79, 68.2%)      avg line: -190.4 / 172.7      on / against: +$1,355 / -$2,295      ROI: +4.1% / -13.2%

2007
SU:    42-66 (-0.67, 38.9%)      avg line: 107.6 / -117.7      on / against: -$2,070 / +$1,650      ROI: -19.2% / +13.0%
RL:    55-48 (0.97, 53.4%)      avg line: -199.4 / 170.0      on / against: -$3,985 / +$2,635      ROI: -19.4% / +25.4%

KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/1/2014 5:18:39 PM
This is of course for the underdogs on the road. The last season was great

SU:    73-64 (0.36, 53.3%)      avg line: 107.2 / -117.3      on / against: +$1,442 / -$2,175      ROI: +10.5% / -13.5%
RL:    98-37 (1.74, 72.6%)      avg line: -195.3 / 180.2      on / against: +$2,495 / -$3,100      ROI: +9.5% / -23.0%

72%, I may give a try to this, a lot of chalk to lay with RL but if this success percentage can be sustained, that would be great, otherwise I will simply stop if the loss is -$500.
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/1/2014 7:51:46 PM
Got 2nd system to try, bet an underdog on ML (+130 to +140) regardless of whether at home or away. This has given + years from 2007-2013. For today it would be SD and HOU possibly.
Will play System # 2 starting from tomorrow.
Now on to System #1 here are the plays for tonight
All will be risking 1u to win 0.5u
Atlanta +1.5
SF +1.5



KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/1/2014 7:54:38 PM
2007 - 2013 about +6,800$ with not losing in any year in this period for System 2. That looks quite strong All plays will be risking 1u to win at +130 to +140.
Kababayan PM Kababayan
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Posted: 4/1/2014 8:17:26 PM
Just to confirm:

System #1: Bet road underdogs up to +110 on RL

System #2: Bet all underdogs between +130 and +140

Thank you
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/1/2014 8:31:23 PM
Yes that's correct! Will post all system plays in here throughout the season. If I win 5u for each system I may quit, I will be satisfied
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/2/2014 3:21:34 AM
recap
Atlanta +1.5 WON
SF +1.5 WON

+1.04
nice start
bruin95 PM bruin95
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Posted: 4/2/2014 3:38:04 AM

I'm assuming the odds used for these results were using a dime line?  If that's the case, anyone who uses a book that doesn't use dime lines needs to make adjustments to the dog line in order to come up with the correct plays.  This is critical in getting the proper plays and results.  Also, I'm certain all the odds used were closing lines.  Therefore, in order to achieve the proper results, you must wait until game time to make the wagers.  Good luck with this.  Both systems were perfect tonight.

KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/2/2014 3:54:34 AM
I'm using http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/mlb-baseball/ to find out on the line as it compares different books and yes I wait how the line moves. Yesterday SF moved from opening at -112 which did not qualify as a play but was +109 later on and did qualify. I am basing on the stats from killersports service and don't know how they come up with the lines so I wrote to them and asked, hopefully they will reply or anyone knows on what basis do they determine the lines? I will usually wait to 7 pm cause this is the time I need to go to sleep, hopefully this does not affect the further line moves significantly
JimmyDrizzl PM JimmyDrizzl
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Posted: 4/2/2014 1:43:05 PM
Nice start to the baseball season..Hope the system does well for the whole year
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/2/2014 3:28:44 PM
thanks man
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/2/2014 6:06:06 PM
System 1:
Col +1.5 1u to win 0.47
SF +1.5 1u to win 0.5

System 2:
Cubs ML 0.5 to win 0.69
JimmyDrizzl PM JimmyDrizzl
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Posted: 4/2/2014 7:42:00 PM

I am interested to see how this system 1 strategy system plays out for this year as I have given up on betting the run line for a long while now.

When I would bet the runline in past years I would usually take the home team minus the 1.5 and get plus money on my bet.

I would lose dismally, time after time. The only home team that ever won me a few bets was when Boston was hot at home a few years ago.

In my experience, it cost me lots of cash to bet the r/l taking plus money. Your stats show that by taking the 1.5 runs and laying big vig is the only way to go to have a winning year...We shall see...

KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/3/2014 2:08:55 AM
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I also do not like to bet on such chalk bets like -200 but it has proven to be profitable, with last year over 72% of bets winning, so there is some potential even in chasing these bets, however I did not track how it went in the previous seasons. This System 1 and System 2 are backed by the stats so they should hit, which does not mean that they must. I did not find a trend for RL-1.5 which will give +money bets, but there may be such one, you just need to filter the past results with the proper criteria. I may look for such a trend when I have time.
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/3/2014 2:11:42 AM
yesterday results:
System 1:
Col +1.5 1u to win 0.47 W
SF +1.5 1u to win 0.5 W

System 2:
Cubs ML 0.5 to win 0.69 L tough loss in extra innings
overall +0.47

System 1: ytd 4-0 (+2.01)
System 2: ytd 0-1 (-0.5)

KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/3/2014 6:55:44 AM
okay got these early and will update for more later
System1:
STL +1.5 1u to win 0.48

System2:
KC ML 0.5 to win 0.68
NYM ML 0.5 to win 0.68


will add later games
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/3/2014 12:52:20 PM
NYM pick is cancelled due to pitching change and line drop. KC game postponed.
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/3/2014 3:23:06 PM
It's again SF +1.5 1u to win 0.5 for System 1
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/3/2014 6:21:11 PM
final plays for
system1: BOS +1.5 1u to win 0.52

system 2:
TOR ML 0.5u to win 0.66u
HOU ML 0.5u to win 0.65u
SEA ML 0.5u to win 0.64u
JimmyDrizzl PM JimmyDrizzl
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Posted: 4/3/2014 7:00:19 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KnightofSorrow:

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I also do not like to bet on such chalk bets like -200 but it has proven to be profitable, with last year over 72% of bets winning, so there is some potential even in chasing these bets, however I did not track how it went in the previous seasons. This System 1 and System 2 are backed by the stats so they should hit, which does not mean that they must. I did not find a trend for RL-1.5 which will give +money bets, but there may be such one, you just need to filter the past results with the proper criteria. I may look for such a trend when I have time.

I do believe I will stick to taking the 1.5 runs and laying the big juice since I never ever won taking + money R/L bets...SF covers today and now on to Boston for system 1 to start the season perfect.

KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/4/2014 4:21:46 AM
Well, System 1 was 3-0 yesterday and is 7-0 now. Picked up 1.5 unit, and now is (+3.51) on the season.
A different thing with System 2, yesterday was 0-3 and is now 0-4 but it should bring some profit hitting less than 50%, we shall see.Now it is -2.00 units.

Jimmy, we will see how it goes, so far it has been perfect, plus RL money bets are tough, indeed, but maybe there are some stats to support it, just need to dig deeper into.
maidenguy PM maidenguy
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Posted: 4/4/2014 10:47:48 AM
Like this. To recap, you are going to use odds close to game time and not to much earlier. No playing early.
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/4/2014 2:06:53 PM
yeah as much as possible I will try to get the closing lines
2 games for system 2 so far:
Phi ML 0.5u /0.65
Mil ML 0.5u /0.67
KnightofSorrow PM KnightofSorrow
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Posted: 4/4/2014 6:13:32 PM
2-0 with System 2 showing some life today.
Final plays:
System 1:
STL +1.5 1u to win 0.47

System 2:
Tex ML 0.5u to win 0.67
Sea ML 0.5u to win 0.69
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