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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Opinions needed....
RandyRay send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 3/28/2014 10:43:11 AM
If you flat bet Jeffthehat A game system plays you would have the following results: based on 1.5 juice per loss.
2009
435-159 = +196.5 units
2010
432-196 = +138 units
2011
431-169 = +177 units
2012
442-197 = +146
2013
461-187 = +180

Now if I'm correct in this wouldn't it be a lot simpler to play it this way especially if you had a smaller bankroll? Thoughts and comments appreciated.
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#2
Posted: 3/28/2014 10:51:38 AM
I have a smaller bankroll and I am going to do something similar. I will make it a two game chase and it should hit at an 84% win rate for those two games. There should be approx. 700 games to wager on. You should win 588 units on the 84% winners and lose 168 units on the 16% losers (using -150 as the line) netting you 420 units. Obviously, this is an estimate but, it seems very profitable to do it this way and not exposing yourself to a 5/6 game chase.

Can't wait for baseball to start!!
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#3
Posted: 3/28/2014 11:00:22 AM
Sorry guys, after I posted above, I realize that my math is off. It is more like losing 420 units on the 16% losing chases which would net you approx 168 units. May have to re-think this.
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#4
Posted: 3/28/2014 1:18:58 PM
Your numbers are incorrect. You have to add B, C, D, E and F wins to get the A losses.
So for 2009, game A record would be 435-282.
435 x 100 = 43500 won
282 x 150 = 42300 lost
Net of 1200 or 12 units.

2010 was -57 units
2011 was +40 units
2012 was -31 units
2013 was +5 units.

If you look through Jeff's thread with the results, I posted a link to a google doc which outlined the wins and losses per game.
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#5
Posted: 3/28/2014 5:28:25 PM
my opinion is that there is zero chance you are going to get a full season of picks from Jeff with these results ... 
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#6
Posted: 3/29/2014 2:03:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:

my opinion is that there is zero chance you are going to get a full season of picks from Jeff with these results ... 

If you look at some of the older forum threads, he has done it before.Many of them have.
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#7
Posted: 3/29/2014 5:07:44 PM
I hear you on this one.  I have been studying and waiting patiently.  No way do I want to go on a 6 gm chase it just gets too expensive.  Even 3 is a lot.  Someone published the lay prices somewhere.  So say you have a max wager of 1000 and at a 6 gm chase you lay 157.4 your profit for that wager is 7 dollars rounded off of course.  Last year there were 765 chases so at the 7 your profit was 5355 which is nice.  One would have to lose about 5 chases in gm 6 to lose money.  Close enough for government work.  Is the risk worth the reward.
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#8
Posted: 3/29/2014 5:25:59 PM

Multiple 6 game chases could get hairy. I like the idea of waiting for C or even D games and then start chasing.

But then if A and B games are hitting at a decent rate it'll be hard not to jump on 'em.

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JEFFTHEHAT
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#9
Posted: 3/29/2014 6:19:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dutch1976:

Multiple 6 game chases could get hairy. I like the idea of waiting for C or even D games and then start chasing.

But then if A and B games are hitting at a decent rate it'll be hard not to jump on 'em.


If your going to wait for D,E and F games your not going to have many plays. Remember only 5.6% of the games went to that point in the past 5 years. 
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#10
Posted: 3/29/2014 6:20:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LarryB818:


If you look at some of the older forum threads, he has done it before.Many of them have.

actually no he hasnt..show me a full season posted by him
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#11
Posted: 3/29/2014 6:51:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:

my opinion is that there is zero chance you are going to get a full season of picks from Jeff with these results ... 

That is quite astute of you, you are correct because it doesnt start until May and ends mid Sept. Not a full season! 
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#12
Posted: 3/29/2014 9:06:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:


That is quite astute of you, you are correct because it doesnt start until May and ends mid Sept. Not a full season! 

Zero chance Jeff posts from May till mid sept with these results
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#13
Posted: 3/29/2014 9:23:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:


Zero chance Jeff posts from May till mid sept with these results
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#14
Posted: 3/29/2014 9:26:45 PM
Why does that bother you? I didn't realize I have to post what ever you want. If I  post for 30 days and it wins 100 -150 units I'm pretty sure nobody is going to cry.
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#15
Posted: 3/29/2014 10:08:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Why does that bother you? I didn't realize I have to post what ever you want. If I  post for 30 days and it wins 100 -150 units I'm pretty sure nobody is going to cry.

Doesnt bother me a bit, have no intention of following a 6 game chase of -150 odds with no parameters given, The poster was asking for advice on how to play your "system" based on previous years result,s my opinion was that it is pointless trying to figure this out when  a full seasons results wont be posted... legitimate no ?

and 100 -150 units sounds good , but put it into reality, 100 units when you need 400 to play the system is no different then a 3% flat bettor being up 7 or 8 units..
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#16
Posted: 3/30/2014 2:30:37 AM
The only problem is you don't need 400 units because 84% hits on the A & B games. No capper can out produce this system unit wise grinding it out , the best get maybe 100 units. 
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#17
Posted: 3/30/2014 10:31:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Why does that bother you? I didn't realize I have to post what ever you want. If I  post for 30 days and it wins 100 -150 units I'm pretty sure nobody is going to cry.

Jeff, I hope you will post for the full year. For those of us who are not playing a full 6 game chase (I'm playing 4 game + 2 game), we may not see solid, positive results in only 30 days. 

I allocated half of my bankroll to this system. If you will limit posting plays, I will have to re-think this allocation. 

Let us know how you will be proceeding. 
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#18
Posted: 3/30/2014 3:53:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bart_:


Jeff, I hope you will post for the full year. For those of us who are not playing a full 6 game chase (I'm playing 4 game + 2 game), we may not see solid, positive results in only 30 days. 

I allocated half of my bankroll to this system. If you will limit posting plays, I will have to re-think this allocation. 

Let us know how you will be proceeding. 

He's going to post for about a month or so and if the system is performing like the back tests indicate he will go tout. Can't blame him, I would probably do the same thing. But with no parameters being released and no indication on how long the plays will be posted there's too much risk to make a significant investment in my opinion. 

Best of luck to those who are tailing though
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#19
Posted: 3/30/2014 7:57:51 PM
Some of this has been posted in various threads.  This is the way I see it using just results from 2013
Tiers from A to F, profit per tier and loss per tier.  Assuming a max 500 to risk wager.
A       1              1.5
B       2.5           3.75
C       6.25          9.375     500/9.37=53
D     15.625      23.4
E     39.06        58.6
F     97.6        146.48       500/146.48=3.41


So a 3 tier max chase one could wager 53 a unit and in tier 3=496.8
A 6 tier chase one would wager 3.41 a unit and tier 6 =499.4
last year wins and losses
A     461     304        265 PROFIT
B     187     117      1523 PROFIT
C     85        32      12260 PROFIT 
D     23         9
E     8           1
F      1          0

760 WINS * 3.41=2608     3 TIERS = 14048 PROFIT


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#20
Posted: 3/30/2014 9:19:07 PM
Hey Jeff Im in the same boat as Bart...hope you are posting the entire season but if not can you let us know if its only 30 days? I use labby lines so it could really mess me up if its 30 days only. Thanks!
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#21
Posted: 3/30/2014 9:23:52 PM
I won't leave anyone hanging! 
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#22
Posted: 3/30/2014 10:03:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by INTHEEND:

Some of this has been posted in various threads.  This is the way I see it using just results from 2013
Tiers from A to F, profit per tier and loss per tier.  Assuming a max 500 to risk wager.
A       1              1.5
B       2.5           3.75
C       6.25          9.375     500/9.37=53
D     15.625      23.4
E     39.06        58.6
F     97.6        146.48       500/146.48=3.41


So a 3 tier max chase one could wager 53 a unit and in tier 3=496.8
A 6 tier chase one would wager 3.41 a unit and tier 6 =499.4
last year wins and losses
A     461     304        265 PROFIT
B     187     117      1523 PROFIT
C     85        32      12260 PROFIT 
D     23         9
E     8           1
F      1          0

760 WINS * 3.41=2608     3 TIERS = 14048 PROFIT



i don't follow...
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#23
Posted: 3/30/2014 10:04:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

I won't leave anyone hanging! 


I'm re-thinking the way i want to play this and i may play all 6 games...still have a month to decide. 
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#24
Posted: 3/30/2014 11:05:11 PM
I think I know what INTHEEND was trying to say. Here is my take on it while averaging the past 5 years. 

Based on $1000 bankroll
If you play full 6 games @ $2.5 unit size = 400 units = +$1844
If you play full 6 games @ $3 unit size = 333 units = +$2213
If you play full 6 games @ $4 unit size = 250 units = +$2951
If you play 5 games @ $5 unit size = 200 units = +$2224
If you play 4 games @ $10 unit size = 100 units = +$2766

My favorite, if you play 4 game, plus start a new 2 game chase on game 5, it would be +$2886.

You are only giving up $65 compared to the 6 game chase at $4 units, but you are limiting your exposure. 


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#25
Posted: 3/31/2014 8:40:21 AM
It is hard to do this without actual data.  There was enough info given by Jeff and how ever figured the lay price by tier based on a 150 average.  To follow the example I gave I did 2 things.  I used the original 6 gm chase and a 3 game chase.  I figured the original starting unit by a max bet.  In a 6 gm chase the lay price for game six is 146.48 which takes into account all the losses and one unit profit after gm 6 wins.  If your max lay is 500 dollars divide it by 146.48 which equals 3.41.  So a starting wager of 3.41 dollars in gm 1 would result in you laying 499.49 in game 6 to get the 3.41 profit.  Strange but true.  Now take the 765 units won last year times 3.41 =2608 dollars of profit.

If you go to a 3 game chase the lay price for that is 9.375 so 500 divided by 9.375 is 53 dollar unit and at game 3 you would be laying close to 500 bucks at 150 odds. 

So in the above thread I did profit by tier and it seems to me by taking more losses and increasing unit size you come out ahead.  Granted you give up stuff like in a 6 tier chase last year one had to lay 500 dollars once while in the 3 tier chase I showed you had to do that 32 times.  Which is better the one that suites you or the one that never gets to tier 3.

Just an opinion nothing more nothing less.  I do know I would not be comfortable going to tier 6 in any chase where I have to lay 500 to win 3.
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