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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Giving this another shot
BCap888
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#1
Posted: 3/15/2014 2:34:01 PM
I've been working with the SDQL again for MLB and made what I hope are improvements on what I've had in years past. Instead of using year long systems, this year I'm tailoring each query to the specific month, starting pitcher, or home plate umpire.

For example:
month = 4 and D and 2 < pp:SHRA + p:SHRA < 5 and pp:BPRA + p:BPRA < 6 and rest < 2 and -5 < streak < 6 and -9 < site streak < 8 and 40 < WP < 61

Dogs in the month of April whose starters gave up either 3 or 4 home runs the past 2 games, and whose bullpens allowed less than 6 runs the last 2 games, who haven't lost more than 4 in a row or won more than 5 in a row, or lost more than 8 in a row on the road/at home or won more than 7 on the road/at home, and have a winning percentage between 40% and 61%. That's a mouthful, but the results since 2004 are a 103-66 record on an average moneyline of +129 for an ROI of 39.5%. Last season these games were 10-8.

These tweaks will limit the number of plays I make and hopefully reduce some of the volatility I've seen in years past. I'll be posting more of my queries in this thread leading up to the baseball season starting. I wish everyone the best of luck this season. We're all on the same team, after all.
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#2
Posted: 3/15/2014 3:08:37 PM
hmmm. look forward to your plays...
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BCap888
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Posted: 3/15/2014 5:57:21 PM
Example 2: (Starting Pitcher)

0 < Mike Leake:s:home runs allowed and p:HR = 0

When Mike Leake starts and he gave up at least 1 home run in his last start, and his team had no home runs in their previous game, the Reds are 23-9 winning by an average of 1.66 runs and a 34.9% ROI. In 2013 the Reds lost his first 2 starts that fit the system then won the last 8 to finish +5.98 units on 10 plays.
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BCap888
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Posted: 3/18/2014 12:54:04 PM
Example 3

month = 8 and D and sssss:SSO = 5 and 3 < ssss:SSO < 6 and 1 < sss:SSO and ss:SSO < 10 and s:SSO < 10 and -7 < streak < 4 and -2 < o:streak and season = 2013

Dogs in August when the starter struck out 5 five starts ago, 4 or 5 four starts ago, more than 1 three starts ago, less than 10 two starts ago and less than 10 in his last start. The team must be on a streak less than +4 and better than -7, and their opponent must be on a streak of better than -2. These games are 55-36 on an average line of +136 for an ROI of 42.7%. In 2013: 10-7 +7.58 units.


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Posted: 3/20/2014 8:39:49 AM
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=tp%3Aruns%3C%3D2+and+op%3Aruns%3C%3D2+and+conference+%3DAL&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

a nice over/under system
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#6
Posted: 3/20/2014 8:49:02 AM
minimum of 200 or better 300+ plays are good to avoid variances
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BCap888
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Posted: 3/20/2014 1:10:43 PM
That's what I tried last year thinking that the more plays would lead to more consistency but I found out quickly that if on the season you won say 150 and lost 110 or so that would be really good for totals, but those 110 losses can come at any time and if they all happen within a short time frame you can go bust real fast. Just my way of thinking but I'd rather be looking at a small number of plays that have won consistently each season.  Less bankroll swings IMO. I agree that in the long term the systems with more plays are more likely to get to their average number of units won, but it will be a roller coaster ride getting there.
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Posted: 3/20/2014 2:37:29 PM
agree,

if you let say, have 20 systems that win consistently for the last 5-6 years , then you are in the safe side.  Some of these systems will produce a losing season but most of them will be at the winning side.  I look for ROI>20% and at least 50 games for the last 6 season (that is season>2007).
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#9
Posted: 3/20/2014 4:36:01 PM
i have round about 50 systems (some are based on logic other are big trends) for 6 sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, NCAAB and NCAAF) Maybe we can share with each other?
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Posted: 3/20/2014 8:45:52 PM
if ayone likes to share contact me via pm. here is a good one: http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=S%28points%3Eo%3Apoints%40team+and+season%2CN%3D15%29%3E%3D12+and+WP%3E%3D62+and+season&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
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BCap888
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Posted: 3/20/2014 11:52:46 PM
Example 4 (Total)

STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3

Unders are 113-39 (74.3%) for a +40.5% ROI.

Last season 16-4 Unders +54.0% ROI.
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#12
Posted: 3/21/2014 12:10:08 AM
p:margin = 1 and pp:margin = 1 and F

one of my easiest.
betting against home false favs
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BCap888
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Posted: 3/21/2014 1:11:24 PM
Here is the breakdown of the systems I'll be using this year:

Number of systems - 91
  • Totals - 25
  • Sides - 66
  • Monthly - 39
  • Starter - 40
  • Umpire - 4
  • Season Long Other - 8

I know it seems like a lot of systems but it's really not. There will only be about 6 monthly systems active on a given day, and the starter trends will only apply when the given starter is pitching.

2013 Results:

There were 314 Totals plays that went 226-88 (72%) for a profit of 128.75 Units.

There were 981 Side plays that went 660-321 (67.3%) for a profit of 420.86 Units.

I haven't yet broken down the monthly results or the starter results but when I do I'll put those up too.

The money management I'll be using is a 3-Unit system. For each system that a play applies to will be worth one unit. 1 Unit will be 2% of my current bankroll, 2 Units will be 3%, and 3 Units will be 4%. If a play comes up more than three times it will still only be worth 3 Units.

And finally, in addition to putting the plays for each day in this thread I'll also put them out through Twitter. The handle to go to for those is @Brian8CAP if that's something you would find easier than checking the forum. BOL everybody.

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Posted: 3/21/2014 2:54:04 PM
good work. i will add you on twitter. i use them mostly for nba and nhl plays.
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Posted: 3/21/2014 2:58:40 PM
Thank you BCap
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Posted: 3/21/2014 8:33:37 PM
Do you only cover MLB?
Added you on twitter.
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BCap888
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Posted: 3/21/2014 9:45:58 PM
I like to focus on baseball but I've got a few for NBA, NHL and NFL as well. I prefer betting a money line but I don't really get into hockey.
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Posted: 3/22/2014 1:28:27 PM
there is always a "first time"

gsw-2 ?

A 28-0 TREND FOR IT

http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?sdql=rest+%3D+0+and+site+%3D+away+and+p%3Asite+%3D+away+and+p%3Aline+%3C+-4.5+and+p%3Amargin+after+the+third+%3E+0+and+p%3Aline+%3E+-9.5+and+line+%3E+-6+and+o%3Arest+%3C+2+and+op%3Asite+%3D+home+and+streak+%3E+1+and+p%3Aats+margin+%3C+18+and+p%3Apoints+%2B+po%3Apoints+%3C+201+and+op%3Apoints+%3E+82&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

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Posted: 3/22/2014 3:27:38 PM
Month by month breakdown of 2013. I haven't included the Starter trends because there are only about 12 plays or so for each one per season so the monthly breakdown would be kind of random.

April
  • Sides - 90-53 Avg Line (126.1) +56.8 Units
  • Totals- 20-8 +11.2 Units

May

  • Sides - 58-42 Avg Line (136.6) +37.1 Units
  • Totals - 20-12 +6.5 Units

June

  • Sides - 67-43 Avg Line (134.7) +41.7 Units
  • Totals - 21-6 +14.4 Units

July

  • Sides - 121-42 Avg Line (-122.7) +74.5 Units
  • Totals - 17-15 +4.6 Units

August

  • Sides - 101-52 Avg Line (-102.4) +66.6 Units
  • Totals - 17-12 +3.4 Units

September

  • Sides - 44-30 Avg Line (136.3) +28.0 Units
  • Total - 18-2 +15.8 Units

In July and August favorites become a little more valuable so a lot of those two months' systems take advantage of that. 

One other thing I haven't addressed yet is when two teams that are playing each other come up on different systems. If they show up the same number of times, I'll just cancel them out, but if one is more than the other I'll wager the net amount of units.

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#20
Posted: 3/22/2014 6:24:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by 1958a:

there is always a "first time"

gsw-2 ?

A 28-0 TREND FOR IT

http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?sdql=rest+%3D+0+and+site+%3D+away+and+p%3Asite+%3D+away+and+p%3Aline+%3C+-4.5+and+p%3Amargin+after+the+third+%3E+0+and+p%3Aline+%3E+-9.5+and+line+%3E+-6+and+o%3Arest+%3C+2+and+op%3Asite+%3D+home+and+streak+%3E+1+and+p%3Aats+margin+%3C+18+and+p%3Apoints+%2B+po%3Apoints+%3C+201+and+op%3Apoints+%3E+82&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

 

The way undefeated or perfect trends have been going on sportsdatabase lately, you probably just gave this one the kiss of death, LOL!  Yesterday, I found one that was 27-0, since January, in the NBA.  There were 3 teams that qualified.  The result---0-3.  Never fails.  Put money on it, and it loses.  Same thing happened on Tuesday.  Two perfect trends in effect, involving 4 teams.  0-4.  I lose more money on trend betting than with any other method.

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#21
Posted: 3/22/2014 7:19:32 PM
short term trends are not working for me. mine have to be at least 8 out of 10 seasons in profit and high volume. otherwise it is just law of averrages.
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#22
Posted: 3/24/2014 2:48:18 PM
Example 5 (Starter)

Madison Bumgarner:s:walks allowed<3 and -4<streak<2

Giants are 47-19 on an average line of -124 for a +32.3% ROI and +27.7 units since 2009. The UNDER is also fairly profitable for this one as well, but I'm focused on the side.

During the season when I post plays I'll put up something like this as well as give the year to date numbers and last 7 days numbers:

April

Royals +120 (1 to win 1.2)
Twins +135 (2 to win 2.7)

Starter

David Price - Rays -130 (1.3 to win 1)

Umpire

Jim Reynolds - Tigers/Athletics O7.5 -110 (1.1 to win 1)

Other

Orioles/Blue Jays U8 -110 (2.2 to win 2)

On Twitter I'll only be listing the plays and units wagered and not all of the other info.

Starting to think opening day may never get here...
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#23
Posted: 3/24/2014 4:02:28 PM
Will you post the trends too or just the picks?
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Posted: 3/24/2014 4:22:54 PM
Probably just the picks. I can put the background of the systems though, like the ROI or the record of it for the current season.
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#25
Posted: 3/29/2014 7:17:31 PM
Example 6 (Month) April Underdog

month=4 and D and -6<p:margin<3 and 4<p:SO<8 and 4<p:SIP<8 and p:SHRA<3 and p:HR<3 and WP<75 and -7<streak<4 and p:PU<7 and 8<p:LOB<17 and o:STR and rest<2 and p:errors<3 and 1<p:fly balls<14 and -5<o:streak and p:runs!=6 and p:runs!=5

96-61 Avg Line of 131.1 +42% ROI
2013: 13-5 +10.85 Units +60.2% ROI Average Score of 5.1 to 3.9
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