March Madness Under System 2014

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: March Madness Under System 2014
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/15/2014 10:21:20 AM
This is not my system. Gianfranco1104 was posting plays in 2012 & 2013, but I don't see him around anymore so I'll run with this. 

The strategy is simple. Take the 1st half under in every March Madness game (including pre-entry round 1). If you win, collect your money, if you lose, chase the under to the 2nd half to win 1 unit. 

Previous results:
2013 +20.9
2012 +45
2011 +5.8
2010 +22.3
2009 -6*
2008 +6.8

I was unable to find all of the half totals for 2009 so for some games I assumed the first half total to be the game total -11 points. If the 1st half resulted in a loss, I did not chase to the 2nd half. I assumed a -110 unit loss. 

Losing both halves resulted in -340 loss. Meaning we need to win 4 out of 5 to make money. 

Pinnacle & 5dimes have had the best lines. I will be grading the results using the best closing line between those two books. 

Plays and updates will be posted on Google Docs. Along with past results: 

http://tinyurl.com/pouylcb

Good luck. 
traderjoe13 PM traderjoe13
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 448
Ohio
 
traderjoe13
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/15/2014 11:29:25 AM
U are the man thank u Bart.
Posted using a mobile device.
Red_Soxxxxxxxx PM Red_Soxxxxxxxx
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 2042
 
Red_Soxxxxxxxx
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/17/2014 12:35:02 AM
Be careful Bart with this. He has made several attempts going back and forth between over and unders. He has gotten smashed. He came back to do the conference tournies after taking time off because of a massacre and switched midway through. Just an fyi for you. That system worked pretty good last year but now with the new rule, there has been no consistency with fouls called 
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/17/2014 11:42:32 AM
Thanks. I'm only going to play for about .25 of my MLB unit. Just want some action over the next month.
Posted using a mobile device.
TheBeefMan PM TheBeefMan
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 538
 
TheBeefMan
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/17/2014 1:33:35 PM
I think I'll tail this one. The only thing that concerns me is how the new foul rule will affect the over/unders, but I don't think it should do that much damage. Thanks Bart. 
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/17/2014 2:29:31 PM
I figure that the books would have adjusted the totals accordingly. most fouls occur in the 2nd half, hopefully we have the chase cleared by then.

Go light on this. It is not a bullet proof system.
Posted using a mobile device.
bruin95 PM bruin95
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 375
Nevada
 
bruin95
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/17/2014 9:16:26 PM
What I have been noticing lately is that if a game goes over in the first half, it goes under in the second half. The last 3 days it's 12-3, including a winner tonight in the Brown game.  I'm going to back check this over the past week or so and see what results I come up with.  Might be a nice straight bet wager for the postseason tourneys.
stickbit PM stickbit
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 401
 
stickbit
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/17/2014 9:23:42 PM
Bruin funny you mentioned this as I was thinking same thing...only going to chase 2H on a labby line for gms that go over 1H
Posted using a mobile device.
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/17/2014 9:26:05 PM
ADG brought up the same thing. I may switch it up and only run it that way. It has hit for 64% since 2008 (not including 2009 when I didn't have accurate lines)

If someone is good with sportsdatabase.com, can you double check this?
Posted using a mobile device.
bruin95 PM bruin95
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 375
Nevada
 
bruin95
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 3:08:07 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bruin95:

What I have been noticing lately is that if a game goes over in the first half, it goes under in the second half. The last 3 days it's 12-3, including a winner tonight in the Brown game.  I'm going to back check this over the past week or so and see what results I come up with.  Might be a nice straight bet wager for the postseason tourneys.

 

Forget about this one, guys.  You would lost your behind doing this over the past week.  I stopped checking when it got around 10 games under .500.  I guess it was just a fluke over the past several days. 

Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 2:31:17 PM
Betting 2u on 2nd half under when 1st half hits over, and betting 1u on 2nd half over when the 1st half hit under\pushed has averaged +18 units per year since 2008. Not including 2009 due to limited data.

I have added a revision to my spreadsheet.
Posted using a mobile device.
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 2:32:31 PM
Crap, typo, should have said "...1u on 2nd half UNDER when 1st hits under/pushes..."
Posted using a mobile device.
BigTenWatto PM BigTenWatto
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 818
Canada
 
BigTenWatto
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 3:01:30 PM
Little confused by the different strategies mentioned above. Can some one confirm that tonight, we simply take the 1st half under 65 in Albany and chase with a second half under if it doesn't hit?
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 4:30:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Little confused by the different strategies mentioned above. Can some one confirm that tonight, we simply take the 1st half under 65 in Albany and chase with a second half under if it doesn't hit?

that's one way. 

the other way is to wait until half time & if the 1st half went under or pushed bet 1 unit on the under. If the 1st half went over, bet 2 units. 
traderjoe13 PM traderjoe13
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 448
Ohio
 
traderjoe13
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 4:52:20 PM
What strategy did you use for your back testing Bart
Posted using a mobile device.
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 4:59:14 PM
I backtested both here are the results:

Under Chase System (play 1st half under, chase to 2nd if required):
2013 = +20.9u
2012 = +45u
2011 = +5.8u
2010 = +0.3u
2009 = -6u
2008 = +6.8u
Average = +12.1u

2nd Half Only Under (win 1 unit if 1st half was O, win 2 units if 1st half was U)
2013 = +14.1u
2012 = +24.9u
2011 = +32.8u
2010 = +12.2u
2009 = unknown
2008 = +9.9u
Average = +18.8u
stickbit PM stickbit
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 401
 
stickbit
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 7:39:30 PM
Albany 1st half goes over, under 73.5 2nd half a play
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 8:53:37 PM
Under System:
1-0 +1u

2nd Half Under System:
1-0 +2u
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/18/2014 11:20:04 PM
Under System
2-0 +2u

2nd Half Under System
2-0 +3u
Posted using a mobile device.
Red_Soxxxxxxxx PM Red_Soxxxxxxxx
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 2042
 
Red_Soxxxxxxxx
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/19/2014 6:52:14 PM
Bart, do you have a spreadsheet? I would like to tail you. Thanks
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/19/2014 7:12:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

Bart, do you have a spreadsheet? I would like to tail you. Thanks

yea man. 
I'm all about spreadsheets.

I only play the 2nd half system.

http://tinyurl.com/pouylcb

Cal Poly looks like it will go over 1st half. 
Red_Soxxxxxxxx PM Red_Soxxxxxxxx
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 2042
 
Red_Soxxxxxxxx
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/19/2014 7:22:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bart_:


yea man. 
I'm all about spreadsheets.

I only play the 2nd half system.

http://tinyurl.com/pouylcb

Cal Poly looks like it will go over 1st half. 

Thanks
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/20/2014 7:28:41 AM
Under System
3-1 -.4u

2nd Half System
2-2 -.3u
Posted using a mobile device.
Bart_ PM Bart_
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 3547
Ontario
 
Bart_
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/22/2014 10:56:51 AM
No good. 

First loosing year. 

Under System:
-10.1u

2nd Half System:
-13.1u 


bruin95 PM bruin95
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 375
Nevada
 
bruin95
Participation Meter
Posted: 3/22/2014 7:01:51 PM
Or LOSING year.
Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.