Posted: 4/13/2014 4:40:58 PM
WHAT COUNTS AS A WIN?
So under the SBP chase
system, if you win your A bet, that counts as a "win" (and you win a
total of 1 unit). If you lose bet A but win bet B, that is also a "win"
(and you still only win a net of 1 unit). If you lose A, and lose B, but
you win C, that is also a "win" under the system (and you still only
win a net of 1 unit). The only thing that counts as a "loss" under the
system is if you lose bet A, lose bet B, AND lose bet C.
THE TRUE COST OF LOSSES
Here's the problem: if you win 9 times out of 10, this means YOU WILL LOSE AT LEAST ONE A-B-C CHASE out of every 10 bets. So what does that mean?:
9 wins = positive profits of approximately 9 win units (minus juice as explained above).
Just ONE loss means you will lose 7 bet units (A + B + C), which is
equal to about 8.75 of your win units. (Remember, a single win unit is
only worth about 80 percent of your bet unit because of the juice. 7 bet unitsdivided by .80 = 8.75 win units.)
So by losing just one out of 10 bets, you end up wiping out about 8.75 of the 9 win units that you picked up from your 9 wins.
Your "profit" after 10 bets is: 9 - 8.75 = 0.25 units.
In the best case "winning" scenario:
you will win 9 A bets in a row,
and then your 10th bet is a single ABC chase loss. This means you
risked 16 units (nine A bets of 1 unit each + one ABC chase of 7 units)
to end up with a "profit" of approximately only 0.25. That's equivalent to risking $64 to win $1. (16 x 4 = 64 and 0.25 x 4 = 1.)
Risking $64 to win $1 is NOT an attractive betting scenario, and that is the BEST case scenario under SBP.
The worst case "winning" scenario:
The worst case "winning" scenario is that you will make 10 ABC progression bets, and you must win 9 of those ABC progressions
and lose only the 10th one (thus keeping the 90% win ratio of the
system). In that case you risked 70 bet units (ABC = 7 units x 10 bet
progressions = 70 units) to win that final 0.25 unit of profit. That's equivalent to risking $280 to win $1! (70 x 4 = 280 and 0.25 x 4 = 1)
THE BOTTOM LINE
Based on the math shown above...
Would you risk 64 dollars on the hope of winning 1 dollar?
Would you risk 280 dollars on the hope of winning 1 dollar?
That is exactly what you're doing when you follow SBP or SBC or virtually any other similar progressive betting chase system.
It should be noted that these ratios are what you risk ASSUMING the
SBP system (or other similar system) delivers EXACTLY what it promises: a
90 percent win ratio. If SBP delivers even slightly less than a 90
percent win ratio, you will immediately go into negative profits
because, as shown above, every single ABC loss wipes out 8.75 wins.
YOU CANNOT MAKE A LIVING DOING THIS
you wanted to make an "income" of just $1,000 per month doing this?
That's not even enough to live on, but let's just say that's how much
you would like to win. To win $1,000 each month, you would need to wager
at least $64,000 (at 64x) and up to $280,000 (at 280x) each month
just to win a profit of $1,000, and again pray that you're never a
fraction of a percentage below a 90 percent win rate, otherwise you will
lose most or all of your money.
Risking between $64,000 and $280,000 in the hope of winning $1,000 each month?
How much time would it take you to place and monitor enough bets to put
that much money into play every month? I hope you're getting the
picture. This is no way to make a living or to live a life.