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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: GREATEST SYSTEM EVER Results for past 5 years!
JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#1
Posted: 3/12/2014 11:06:59 AM
Hello fellow chasers and to all who want to follow, these are the results of my almost 1000 hours of going blind on my IPad creating this system. 

Total for the system 3689-0 this is a 6 game chase. This an average of 738 units a season!

2013 - 765-0       2012 - 757-0      2011 - 692-0     2010 - 758-0    

A) 461                A) 442                A) 431               A) 432
B) 187                B) 197                B) 169               B) 196
C) 85                  C) 64                 C) 64                 C) 82
D) 23                  D) 39                 D) 19                 D) 33
E) 8                    E) 12                  E) 7                  E) 8
F) 1                    F) 3                    F) 2                   F) 7

2009 - 717-0
A) 435
B) 159
C) 73
D) 39
E) 9 
F) 2

This in an average of 84.3% hit on A&B games combined
A) 59.7%
B) 24.6%
C) 10%
D) 4.1%
E) 1.1%
F) .4 %

Now if I'm not mistaken at a -150 average a 4 game loss is 30.20 units so if you wanted to make this a 4 game chase you would still make 381 units a season on average. Remember this chase only plays 5/6th's of the season to.

That's 76 units a month that way not bad. 


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JEFFTHEHAT
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#2
Posted: 3/12/2014 11:38:13 AM
One more added stat you can look at if you turn my chases into straight bet games here are the results.

2013 - 62.3% units won 765
2012 - 59.8% units won 757
2011 - 63.7% units won 692
2010 - 59.0% units won 758
2009 - 60.6% units won 717

So you won 3689 units in 5 years with 61.0% wins. 


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#3
Posted: 3/12/2014 12:42:22 PM
just so i understand,in the second post that is just flat betting every single play that you normally play in a chase series,but no increase ever in wager size??thanks jeff the hat
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#4
Posted: 3/12/2014 12:50:54 PM
No, it would be the same increase in bet size as the chase. I was just showing a different way of looking at it. You know you see a lot a posters saying 25 unit play 50 unit lock there is no difference persay. As you can see only 1.5% of the games went past the 4th game which at -150 odds is 30.20 units. basically what I'm saying is this is a very solid chase with small chance of going past "D" game. When 94.3% of the chases end after "C" game I think that is solid! 
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#5
Posted: 3/12/2014 1:15:32 PM
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#6
Posted: 3/12/2014 1:21:48 PM

Are there multiple chases going on at one time?

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JEFFTHEHAT
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#7
Posted: 3/12/2014 1:24:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dutch1976:

Are there multiple chases going on at one time?


Yes, there will be. How many TBD. 
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#8
Posted: 3/12/2014 1:27:47 PM
Remember as an example based on averages if we start season with 5 chases, odds are we will end 3 on the first day and 4 after second day. 
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#9
Posted: 3/12/2014 1:30:09 PM
yep,agree totally...so,based on historical evidence it shud definitely be profitable to play 3 game chases???and it wud be fine start A,B,C's at the point where you are in an D,E,F phase also??assuming the hit rate is the same or better the the second half of your chases historically.....sorry,i know you have the numbers rite there,im just crappy with digits and math...thank you
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#10
Posted: 3/12/2014 2:01:47 PM
Hey Jeff,

This system starts on May 2nd, correct?
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#11
Posted: 3/12/2014 2:42:54 PM
hard to argue these results

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#12
Posted: 3/12/2014 3:40:24 PM
great job, hope it works out for everyone
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#13
Posted: 3/12/2014 4:24:15 PM
Jeff, you willing to give us something, anything, any kind of basic info about this?  Or if I were to PM you, would you possibly be willing to explain it to me?  If it is about confidentiality, I wouldn't go around spreading it by any means, as if it is what you say it is, then in reality I want as few people knowing about it as possible.  Keep it in the family, keep it in just this covers forum.

Been trying myself to come up with something as fool proof as this, and although I have gotten close, nothing has come up with numbers quite as astounding as what you have shared.  Much respect for the time and effort you must have put into backtesting!  Believe me I did it for 9 years for something else I came up with, that had much fewer chases, and it took me nearly a month.  I'm guessing this must have taken you an unfathomable amount of time. 

Anyways, looking forward to your response, and I'd love to help you with possible backtesting if my services could be used in this manner, as until baseball season starts up, and actually until the summer, I currently have a lot of free time on my hands.  Also, for some reason, must be a sickness, but I actually enjoy pouring through numbers to prove something this ground breaking.

Thanks either way in advance

Brian
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#14
Posted: 3/12/2014 5:55:20 PM
Looks great man!!!

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#15
Posted: 3/12/2014 6:32:16 PM

Looking forward to baseball season! You live here in SF? What a devestating fire we had near the ball park yesterday ! 

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JEFFTHEHAT
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#16
Posted: 3/12/2014 7:06:10 PM
Lived in Walnut Creek and then moved to Vegas when I was 21 then moved back to W.C. back in 1999 now live in the Cent. Valley.
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#17
Posted: 3/12/2014 8:23:09 PM
What about if u chase first 3 games and the start another 3 game chase to game 6. It would cut potential loss in a 6 game chase. Does anyone know if such a system would work? All these numbers just mess my head :)
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#18
Posted: 3/12/2014 8:39:06 PM
Jeff does this system go into September, or does it end at the end of August? Just curious. On a separate note trying to figure out a way to have separate labby lines going with this since it seems we will have 5+ chases going at once.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#19
Posted: 3/12/2014 9:02:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stickbit:

Jeff does this system go into September, or does it end at the end of August? Just curious. On a separate note trying to figure out a way to have separate labby lines going with this since it seems we will have 5+ chases going at once.

I backtested stopping when there was only 3 series left in the season. Gets ugly about then! 
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#20
Posted: 3/12/2014 9:06:35 PM
Thanks again for all of your hard work Jeff.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#21
Posted: 3/12/2014 9:17:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kababayan:

Thanks again for all of your hard work Jeff.

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#22
Posted: 3/12/2014 9:22:24 PM
LETS GET EM JEFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#23
Posted: 3/12/2014 9:26:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by daytradernation:

LETS GET EM JEFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

 Books, bookies 
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#24
Posted: 3/13/2014 12:08:17 AM
Ok, I'm fiddling around with the system now looking for subsystems. 

I found a subsystem 5 game chase Only 5 games because it went there once in 2009, the only time. 

2013    88-0         2012   59-0          2011   63-0         2010   102-0  
     
A) 52    59.1%      A) 36   61.0%      A) 42   66.6%.    A) 62   60.8%
B) 26    29.5%      B) 14   23.7%      B) 16   25.4%     B) 26   25.5%
C) 7      7.9%        C) 6    10.1%       C) 5    7.9%       C) 11   10.8%
D) 3      3.4%        D) 3    5.0%                                    D) 3    2.9% 

2009    65-0
A) 42     63.6%
B) 17     25.8%
C) 4       6.0 %
D) 2       3.0%
E) 1       1.5%

Just food for thought
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#25
Posted: 3/13/2014 3:48:10 AM

What is the timeline for an open 3/4 game chase (days weeks)? How many do you think will be open at one time?

 

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