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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Help Using Excel to find how many MLB series have 1 game won by the DOG
oilcountry99 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 3/3/2014 8:15:14 PM
I have DegenGambles excel sheet that imports covers data for an entire MLB season. From that I want to determine if a 2,3 or 4 game series has a game won by the underdog and which game the underdog won A,B,C or D. If the dog wins game A of the series I need look no further, if not check the B game etc.

I'm sure there is a formula to do this, maybe some helper columns are required but I'm stumped. I've searched the net but haven't come up with anything yet, so I thought I'd try here. I'm no excel guru by any means.
Thanks for reading.
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#2
Posted: 3/14/2014 10:45:18 AM
Appreciate your time Buster, however your contribution provides no value to my question.

I've since solved my issues and have the data I was looking for.
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donfernando
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#3
Posted: 3/23/2014 12:41:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

Appreciate your time Buster, however your contribution provides no value to my question.

I've since solved my issues and have the data I was looking for.


can i get this number please???
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#4
Posted: 3/23/2014 2:49:04 PM
1284 of 1580 series had 1 game won by the dog.  This is 81.3% of all 2,3, and 4 game series

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#5
Posted: 3/23/2014 8:29:58 PM
Oil, I have that spreadsheet also.  
This is interesting.  I've started a backtest on it too.  I don't have a real formula, but I'm going through each series and marking it down W/L.  Then I'll go back and get the Dog winning spread and total it all up.  Don't forget that if a chase goes to the C game that it's 7 units x the ML (+120 etc.).
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#6
Posted: 3/23/2014 8:56:24 PM
Buckeye
Any thoughts on a money management strategy to apply to this. I believe there could be some value here if
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#7
Posted: 3/23/2014 8:59:32 PM
Sorry damn phone....continued..... If played correctly

Another interesting stat was that of the 1284 dog wins, 80% also cashed on the RRL!
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#8
Posted: 3/23/2014 9:01:20 PM
The RRL is the key to making this real profitable.

I've back checked to 2010 with similar results....consistency :)
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#9
Posted: 3/23/2014 9:14:35 PM
good info,thanks.
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#10
Posted: 3/23/2014 9:59:22 PM
I've done 4 teams (Arz,Atl,Bal,and Bos) on their home series only, so far, for 2003....just a tip of the iceberg.  It's at 79%, 70-19, +12.11 units. Boston, is 13-8, -25.95 units; one team that is killing the chase.  I started the chase at the beginning of the season, so I gotta get going to get some seasons backtested.  I'm gonna finish 2003 and do 2013 next.

As far as money management...well, you are playing every series (I avoided 2g series for the backtest)...at least, every A game, which will be 15 units in play.  If you go 7-8, that's near a wash or better, depending on the MLs of the dogs. If you lose a series, that's -7u.  

My unit size is less than 1% of my bankroll to start the season.  I have one other system I'm playing during April and that's the same unit size.  More plays, less the unit size for me.  I'll re access after April's over when 3 other systems come online. If this works, I'll increase this and decrease the others.
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#11
Posted: 3/23/2014 10:19:30 PM
I recommend not avoiding the 2 game series.

I also would recommend putting a portion on each dog on the RRL as well. Maybe a full unit on the ML and a half unit on the RRL, be interesting to see how that affects the profits
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#12
Posted: 3/23/2014 10:33:00 PM
BOS was 13-8, so they swept 8 series (3 and 4 game included) as a favourite at home? Is that what your record is reflecting?
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#13
Posted: 3/23/2014 10:38:51 PM
Disregard that last post....
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#14
Posted: 3/23/2014 10:54:28 PM
oilcountry99

how do you get his info???

did you scrapped???
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#15
Posted: 3/24/2014 7:22:36 AM
I had to expand on DG's spreadsheet I refer to in post #1, so a lot of screwing around to get the results I seeked.

There was no easy way or ready made website posting this type of data, at least not that I could find.
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#16
Posted: 3/24/2014 8:37:22 AM
Oil.
Right now I'm doing 2013 season.  I figured to start here and go backwards.  When I mean Home...I'm just doing the home series and when an Away dog wins, I'll go back and plug in the ML.
Also, right now, I'm just doing a 3g chase for 3 and 4 game series. I'll go back and check the D games when I'm done, and also the 2g series too.

Don
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101371839&page=3
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#17
Posted: 3/24/2014 10:10:29 AM
Anyone know of a site that tracks RRL lines history similar to what covers does with the ML?
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#18
Posted: 3/24/2014 8:36:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

Anyone know of a site that tracks RRL lines history similar to what covers does with the ML?

scoresandodds
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#19
Posted: 3/24/2014 9:57:53 PM
I'm having trouble finding the reverse run line (RRL) game log history at scoresandodds, could you submit a link to an example
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#20
Posted: 3/25/2014 7:05:24 AM
http://props.scoresandodds.com/section_display.cfm?section_id=25&startdate=5/3/2013

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#21
Posted: 3/25/2014 7:42:15 AM

Buckeye, Thanks for posting the link, very informative historical stats in regards to the (reverse) RL/odds & results.

appreciate your time saving effort, well done.

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#22
Posted: 3/25/2014 7:46:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

1284 of 1580 series had 1 game won by the dog.  This is 81.3% of all 2,3, and 4 game series

81% excellent stat! good work Oil...thanks
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#23
Posted: 3/25/2014 11:04:13 AM
Buckeye 
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#24
Posted: 3/25/2014 11:06:21 AM
s_N 
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#25
Posted: 3/26/2014 10:27:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

http://props.scoresandodds.com/section_display.cfm?section_id=25&startdate=5/3/2013


This is great info, only problem is that it doesn't import into excel.  At least I can't seem to get it to work.

Thanks again for posting the link!
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