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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA Mid season 3 Game chase Parlay System
darmac
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darmac
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#1
Posted: 1/13/2014 2:46:12 PM

This system is based on 3 tier system. Tier 1 is what I call Team idenity.

Team idenity = Style of play + Offensive Fg % + Trends.

For example: Miami Heat are 6.5 point favorites over Toronto and the total is set at 200.5.

There are 4 options for parlay picks: Miami-Over, Miami-Under, Toronto-Over, Toronto-Under.

What are the most likely scenerios?  Well Miami leads the league in FG %, are among the best at scoring consistently and have the most consistent scorer in the NBA.

To me, this means in order to cover, the raptors would have to score more than expected to cover. Keep in mind, this is strictly an example.

The heat are 16-21 ATS. When they lose, the total has gone over in 13 of those games. Blindly betting agaisnt the Miami and in the over on a parlay would have netted you 46.8 winning units- 25 losing units = 21.8 units.

Now of course, at the first of the season we were not aware of their idenity, but it is now time to cash in.

Based on these this theory I ran the numbers on all teams and  they are:

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darmac
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#2
Posted: 1/13/2014 2:53:21 PM

All of these trends are 65% or higher.

Win= Cover, Lose = Don't cover

Boston- When they win, take under.

Brooklyn- When they win, take over

Philly- When they win, take over

Toronto- When they win, take under, when they lose, take over.

Chicago- When they lose, take under

Cleveland- Win, over. Lose- under

Detroit- Win , over

Indiana- Win, under

Miami- lose, over

Denver- Lose, under

Minnesota- Lose, under. Win, over

Portand- Lose, over

Golden St - Win, Under

Phoneix - Lose, Over

Memphis - Win, Over

New orleans  - Win, over

San An - win, over, lose over

 

The teams not listed have no significant advantage.

This is tier 1 of the system.

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darmac
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#3
Posted: 1/13/2014 3:04:12 PM

Tier 2 is Money Management. I have been using a very simple 3.6 units, 3 game chase. Based on standard 13/5 2 game parlay odds, it looks like this.

Bet A )  1 unit to win 2.6 units

If successful + 2.6 units

If not

Bet B) 1 Unit to win 2.6 Units

If succesful, +1.6 units

If not

Bet C) 1 unit to win 2.6

If successful, +0.6 units

If not, -3 units and bet is over.

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darmac
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#4
Posted: 1/13/2014 3:05:58 PM
Tier 3 is the trigger. What triggers a bet to begin. That info, I will not be giving away but I will post all plays here in this thread. Enjoy!
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darmac
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#5
Posted: 1/13/2014 3:25:35 PM

3 Plays starting tonight.

1. Fade Toronto in the over ( next 3 games )

2. Fade Chicago in the under ( next 3 games )

3. Fade Denver in the under  ( next 3 games )

Tonights Parlay card:

Milwaukee +10.5  - Over 187.5

Washington + 3,5 - under 181.5

Utah +5.5 - under 203.5

 

Watch the money print 

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#6
Posted: 1/13/2014 4:47:47 PM
darmac, are you going to post this system to the end of the season daily? Thanks for sharing and GL with your plays.
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darmac
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Posted: 1/13/2014 5:57:12 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hyvong:

darmac, are you going to post this system to the end of the season daily? Thanks for sharing and GL with your plays.

Yes, will be posting picks daily until the end of the season.

Cheers

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#8
Posted: 1/13/2014 6:17:49 PM
I am in for a small start. How big was the different if you bet straight up ats in stead of parlay?
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darmac
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Posted: 1/13/2014 6:29:12 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hyvong:

I am in for a small start. How big was the different if you bet straight up ats in stead of parlay?

The first 36 plays went 35-1 with the 3 game chase. It obviously has backed off a bit since but still very profitable. I started running the plays as straight up. Has made money, but no where close to the same.

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darmac
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#10
Posted: 1/13/2014 8:52:26 PM
Bet 1 over looking great going into the 4th. Let's go bucks, cover that 10.5!!
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#11
Posted: 1/13/2014 8:59:48 PM
Identity. 
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#12
Posted: 1/13/2014 11:43:00 PM
Better luck tomorrow.
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#13
Posted: 1/14/2014 12:24:23 AM
3-3 ats but 0-3 parlay. Lose my lunches but will have chicken dinners.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#14
Posted: 1/14/2014 12:32:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hyvong:

3-3 ats but 0-3 parlay. Lose my lunches but will have chicken dinners.

Not 3-0 with the ATS plays 2-1
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darmac
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Posted: 1/14/2014 11:55:54 AM

All 3 bets, moving onto to bet B.

Adding 1 new chase today.

Fade Cleveland in the under

4. LAL +3.5 and under 203.5

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JEFFTHEHAT
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#16
Posted: 1/14/2014 12:08:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by darmac:

All 3 bets, moving onto to bet B.

Adding 1 new chase today.

Fade Cleveland in the under

4. LAL +3.5 and under 203.5


So you are taking the over in te CLE game? You went 2-1 on your fadess correct.

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darmac
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Posted: 1/14/2014 10:45:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:


So you are taking the over in te CLE game? You went 2-1 on your fadess correct.

Nope fading cleveland while playing the under.

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#18
Posted: 1/15/2014 9:22:47 AM
0-4   I'm done following this, thankfully I didn't bet. 
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darmac
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Posted: 1/15/2014 10:51:45 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by breezeyo:

0-4   I'm done following this, thankfully I didn't bet. 

This is a chase system. All 4 bets are still open. Went 3-1 ATS, just a little unlucky on the totals. GL with your plays.

 

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darmac
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Posted: 1/15/2014 11:17:24 AM

All 4 bets are in play today for bet B.

Adding 1 new one as well.

1. fade Toronto in the over = Boston +4 and over 197

2. Fade Chicago in the under = Orlando +4.5 and under 182.5

3. Fade Denver in the under = GS -7 and under 212.5

4. Fade Cleveland in the under = Por -10.5 and under 210.5

5. ( New - Play a ) Play phil and over. Phil +1.5 and over 206.5

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Posted: 1/15/2014 12:20:00 PM

Darmac,

Curious if you had a breakdown on how the A bets, B bets, and C bets went on the first 36 chases this season?

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darmac
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Posted: 1/15/2014 5:53:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dfwgambler:

Darmac,

Curious if you had a breakdown on how the A bets, B bets, and C bets went on the first 36 chases this season?

A) 20-16

B) 8-8

C) 7-1

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#23
Posted: 1/17/2014 12:01:03 PM
Darmac, 

Are we fading the same teams today in a C bet with the same total bet or does your system call for something different?

Thank you for your hard work...
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darmac
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Posted: 1/20/2014 11:57:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rolltide7916:

Darmac, 

Are we fading the same teams today in a C bet with the same total bet or does your system call for something different?

Thank you for your hard work...

After reviewing all of the results, I have determined it's almost as profitable and much less risk by just playing the ATS plays in a 3game chase. Almost 60% ATS on BET A. I am only betting the sides now in order to reduce risk in bankroll.

 

 

 

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#25
Posted: 1/20/2014 3:42:06 PM
So..what are the plays then?
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