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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 117 days and counting until....
jerry18 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#51
Posted: 1/23/2014 7:07:02 PM
hey just one question, will play be posted early enough for us that are from Europe since EST time is 6 hours behind central eastern time.
thanks
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#52
Posted: 1/23/2014 7:24:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

That's some good back testing.
With that much historical data, I'd guess you could find (or know) the series with the worst case chase scenario of how many units were required to net one unit.  I may be wrong but with multiple series being chased at once, and chasing up to 6 places, a bettor might need 100's of units just to keep multiple games in action, not including the entire bankroll. 
How many units do you anticipate you'll need for your bankroll?








Grateful this is true, I'm thinking the best way to attack this until enough units are built up might be an aggressive labby after a (C) game? This system has 2 parts the second part is betting the -1.5 RL for a .5 unit or so. Those are hitting at 75%+ any betting strategy thoughts are welcome. 
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#53
Posted: 1/23/2014 7:27:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jerry18:

hey just one question, will play be posted early enough for us that are from Europe since EST time is 6 hours behind central eastern time.
thanks

I will try to have plays posted by 10 A.M west coast time on a 4 o'clock start. If there are early games I'll try to post night before. I'll do my best to make sure everyone has time to see. 

The Hat
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#54
Posted: 1/23/2014 7:31:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:


I will try to have plays posted by 10 A.M west coast time on a 4 o'clock start. If there are early games I'll try to post night before. I'll do my best to make sure everyone has time to see. 

The Hat

excellent, I appreciate that a lot 
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#55
Posted: 1/23/2014 7:33:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jerry18:

hey just one question, will play be posted early enough for us that are from Europe since EST time is 6 hours behind central eastern time.
thanks

oh and I meant central european time not eastern :) but you probably figured it that out :)
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Bart_ send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#56
Posted: 1/23/2014 10:13:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:


Grateful this is true, I'm thinking the best way to attack this until enough units are built up might be an aggressive labby after a (C) game? This system has 2 parts the second part is betting the -1.5 RL for a .5 unit or so. Those are hitting at 75%+ any betting strategy thoughts are welcome. 

So start with Martingale for A, B & C? 
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#57
Posted: 1/23/2014 10:54:00 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Bart_]

So start with Martingale for A, B & C? 
[/Quote

That's what I will do
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#58
Posted: 1/23/2014 11:05:39 PM
Apologies for being the "new guy" asking a random question but.. if anyone is willing to share some guidance .. what's the best online sportsbook to use for US players?

I'm using topbet right now and haven't had many issues although I did receive a check that bounced from them back in May.

Thanks in advance and the system sounds like it'll be a good one.
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#59
Posted: 1/23/2014 11:12:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mklink23:

Apologies for being the "new guy" asking a random question but.. if anyone is willing to share some guidance .. what's the best online sportsbook to use for US players?

I'm using topbet right now and haven't had many issues although I did receive a check that bounced from them back in May.

Thanks in advance and the system sounds like it'll be a good one.

I use 5 dimes and Bet DSI for starters
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#60
Posted: 1/23/2014 11:53:52 PM
Thank you sir
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#61
Posted: 1/24/2014 3:37:13 PM
Jeff,
I don't have much advice to offer with Martingale strategy. You seem to have the basics well in hand, so I hope you can make it work. 
I got into sports betting through baseball back in the 80's. I spent 3 summers in Vegas betting baseball for all of each season of 87, 88, and 89. In 87 I flew to Vegas from Fla. with the notion of betting in a Martingale style. I knew nothing about professional sports, other than being a casual fan, and had never placed a bet on sports. I stayed at the Las Vegas Hilton for 2 weeks and then moved into the Rivera for 2 months, and then finally found a condo to rent by the week/month. My bankroll was about 15k so I started betting $100-2,000 per play, and many plays each day. Remember, no computer and no experience so I was making every mistake a novice bettor could make. My first week in mid April I was up $2k, so I thought I was really on to something. Over the next 4 months I proceeded to lose steadily. I would work every day for hours trying to figure out how to beat the book with their lines but it always came down to breaking even, or losing a little because of the vig. In Sept. I finally started to learn and implement some basic baseball handicapping ideas  and the losing stopped immediately, I did not win, but I stopped losing. At the end of that season I totaled up all of my bets: $235,000 total bets placed, $13,500 lost. 

The next season I returned  to LV with the hopes of getting better at handicapping. After being there a month I heard that there was a free baseball handicapping seminar offered every Tuesday night for 2 hours above one of the smaller casinos. That was an amazing experience. It was run by Bob McCune and Lem Banker, and each week they would usually have a prominent guest speaker from the world of sports handicapping. It lasted for a few months or so, and then they switched over to football handicapping, which did not interest me at the time. I did not lose that year and even made a little to supplement my expenses, but I was now only betting $50-$200 per game. That was the only year that they offered a handicapping seminar…about 15-20 guys showed up each week. 
The next season I met a guy there that was selling a weekly baseball update with all of the current stats, and he would overnight them on Thursday to his subscribers around the country so they would have them before the weekend series  He had a computer, using the old cumbersome DAS system, and he would run different stats for me which I would then back test for results. The problem with this was he would almost always  made a mistake somewhere in his programming every week,  and I would usually find one or more inconsistencies when I was back testing. So that was frustrating for both of us. So that season ended in late Aug. for me.  I got on with my life and career, and I stopped baseball handicapping until 2004, when I became a little computer savy, found Covers, and could bet online. 
So it was the Martingale idea for baseball that got me into sports betting, but I hope my football systems will fund my retirement . 
I'll be keeping a close eye on your baseball system.  The best of luck to you. 
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#62
Posted: 1/24/2014 6:07:21 PM
What are the bankroll mgmt. suggestions for this system?
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#63
Posted: 1/24/2014 6:37:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fanch:

What are the bankroll mgmt. suggestions for this system?

See posts 52 & 57. 
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#64
Posted: 1/24/2014 7:39:28 PM
I'm planning on using a bankroll of 500 I know its not much but I would like to see how the system does and maybe make some money before I invest more into it. Now I was planning on doing the Martingale for A,B and C and my initial bet would be $10. I'm a big numbers person so I really don't see any problem but I usual bet NFL and NCAAF not baseball. So if anyone has any ideas I'm open to hear them.

Thanks
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jerry18 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#65
Posted: 1/24/2014 8:50:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdjohnson2009:

I'm planning on using a bankroll of 500 I know its not much but I would like to see how the system does and maybe make some money before I invest more into it. Now I was planning on doing the Martingale for A,B and C and my initial bet would be $10. I'm a big numbers person so I really don't see any problem but I usual bet NFL and NCAAF not baseball. So if anyone has any ideas I'm open to hear them.

Thanks

I think 500$ bankroll for a 10 $ bet is too small. Last season I played RPI system which was 3 game chase  and 1 unit was worth 2.5% of bankroll. I can tell you I lost bout 10 yrs of my life when we went to 3rd game because I was betting too high %. I will now bet 0.5% of my bankroll.
Just my opinion  
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#66
Posted: 1/25/2014 3:29:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jerry18:


I think 500$ bankroll for a 10 $ bet is too small. Last season I played RPI system which was 3 game chase  and 1 unit was worth 2.5% of bankroll. I can tell you I lost bout 10 yrs of my life when we went to 3rd game because I was betting too high %. I will now bet 0.5% of my bankroll.
Just my opinion  

I agree…if you are betting multiple games you need to have a bankroll large enough to sustain those chases. That's only 50 units and you may need to have much more than that in play at any one time. This system may not fail, but you can't fail the system by not having the resources, or the nerve, to put it on the line. I would agree that a 200 unit bankroll might be necessary. 
The minimum bet at 5Dimes is $5, so you'd need $1,000 bankroll minimum to begin. 

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#67
Posted: 1/25/2014 12:32:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


I agree…if you are betting multiple games you need to have a bankroll large enough to sustain those chases. That's only 50 units and you may need to have much more than that in play at any one time. This system may not fail, but you can't fail the system by not having the resources, or the nerve, to put it on the line. I would agree that a 200 unit bankroll might be necessary. 
The minimum bet at 5Dimes is $5, so you'd need $1,000 bankroll minimum to begin. 



If someone hasn't had much experience with a chase system with multiple games, I would suggest a 400 unit bankroll. It may seem like a lot, but you may have multiple open series going on at the same time.  There may be a couple open 5-game series, a few 3 and 4 game open series, and multiple 2-game open series.  That all adds up.  Once an open  series gets to 4 games, especially at high juice, it's easy to consider bailing out and giving up on the whole thing.  Knowing that sports investing is a marathon and not a sprint (sorry about the cliche) it sure does make it easier to sleep at night when you don't have 1/2 of your bankroll on one open series.  As you win, you can increase your bet size, but the worst is getting too scared to continue a chase, give up, and then see that at the end of the season you would have been up a lot if you had stuck with it.

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#68
Posted: 1/25/2014 2:42:23 PM

Lots of talk about bankroll for this system and some really good advice. Another thing to consider is if you are going to play any other systems. I will probably be in on 4 systems for baseball this year so I will dedicate 1/4 of my bankroll to each system and set my betting units based on that and the specifics of each system. I will use a smaller betting unit for this system since we are looking at up to a 6 game chase.

I think the 400 unit minimum for this system is a good idea, while I'm using 200 units for the RPI system. I'll probably dedicate $2000 to each of these two systems, using $5 as a unit for this one and $10 for the RPI system. For Jeff's system, every $400 increase (80 wins to start) in the bankroll will increase the unit size by $1 to stay at the 400 units based on bankroll balance. Based on the history that Jeff posted, let's say we get 707 wins out of this, you'd be looking at ending the year using $26 as a betting unit and you'd be at almost $8800 in profit.

Increase the betting unit size slowly as the bankroll grows staying at that 400 unit/bankroll balance.

 

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#69
Posted: 1/25/2014 9:22:14 PM
Just want to add one more thing:

you should always be prepared for the system to loose. i'm not saying that this one will, but be prepared for it. Happened last year to the Post All Star Break system which was undefeated for years. 

I think Jeff mentioned that the average odds are around -140, so a 6 game loss would cost you almost 200 units. 

Be prepared. 
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#70
Posted: 1/26/2014 1:26:21 AM
jeff can you request me as a friend i cant seem to find the request button i had a few questions
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#71
Posted: 1/26/2014 11:59:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SpOrTzFaN1:

jeff can you request me as a friend i cant seem to find the request button i had a few questions

You're on my friends list , go ahead and send PM. 
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BUSTERDOUGLASS send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#72
Posted: 2/14/2014 6:16:03 PM
ummmm a 6 game loss at - 140 i would hang myself you would be minus $840

thats why i belive my K. I. S. S. system is easier on everyones pocket and better than any chase system developed by any one and yes i been using for eooooooons since i was 18 yrs old 42 years of gmabling in sports I learned from my losses created my own systems from losing a college tution cost today.

YES over $100,000 in loses for 12 years.

NFL Ncaa foots killed me if i won 1 week out 17 i was lucky
or cut losses in half.

LOL how many new benz's my bookies bought.

NOW i have no locals that take my action i have to use larger backed bookie in other area outside of city.


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#73
Posted: 2/16/2014 1:40:31 PM
Dan, you mentioned that you will be playing 4 systems next year. This and RPI, what are the other 2?
Posted using a mobile device.
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#74
Posted: 2/16/2014 10:09:29 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bart_:

Dan, you mentioned that you will be playing 4 systems next year. This and RPI, what are the other 2?

Actually it is 5. This system, RPI, Cisco's 5 run system and the 2 Post All-Star systems.

I'm dividing my bankroll in 4 equal sections. 3 of these 4 will be used on this system, the RPI and Cisco's system. The other 1/4 will just be in reserve. After the All-Start break, I'll take my entire bankroll and divide by 5, one for each system.

This is an important baseball season for me. If I can make some decent money this year, I will probably spend the next few years living part time in Vegas (where I live now) and the winter months south of the border on the beach. Vegas is not that warm in winter. If baseball does not treat me well this year, I just might stay out of the country full time and just dabble with an offshore account. I don't want to put a big deposit in any offshore book.

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#75
Posted: 2/16/2014 10:19:20 PM
Dan, try Belize my girl and I want to move there. Nice beach front property. 
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