Taking the Under on the Lowest Posted Total

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Taking the Under on the Lowest Posted Total
mr_bollox PM mr_bollox
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Posted: 1/4/2014 1:01:39 PM
on the day's NBA card

I hear a lot of people swear by this system for their one play a day

does anyone have any stats that this is profitable

and what about taking the Over on the highest total, does that work  as well ?
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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Posted: 1/5/2014 5:36:52 PM
I just looked so far this year it's 34-25 if you take the lowest total that is at least 1 point lower than the next lowest total. I'm looking at some filters as I think ths good be profitable as a chase or just filtered.

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JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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Posted: 1/5/2014 5:52:43 PM
Quick note: All 3 plays that were in the 170's went over
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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Posted: 1/5/2014 5:57:58 PM
Quick note: Any total between 180-185 was 11-3 under

JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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Posted: 1/5/2014 6:04:26 PM
Doing a 4 game chase 

A) 17 
B) 4
C) 2
D)1

Looks like a good chase system or heck just bet?  I'll  backcheck
mr_bollox PM mr_bollox
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Posted: 1/7/2014 9:46:31 PM
thanks for the info jeff, as I said a lot of people use this regularly
Dutch1976 PM Dutch1976
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Posted: 1/8/2014 4:08:08 PM

I've back tested this system a few different ways. There have been some serious over streaks.

I put together if you wait for 2 overs, 2 systems loses in a row, and then start chasing the lowest posted under...Betting it this way seems like free money.

The lower the total the better it hits. If the lowest total is in the 190's it seems to be 50/50..If the lowest total is in the 170's it seems to win 75% of the time.

Also I saw the same teams popping up a lot, which makes sense..Instead of chasing the lowest total of any game, if you wait til about week 6 of the season, to see who is playing defense that year and you bet the unders in their games..Money.

This year you're damn near betting the under in every Chicago game. And if it's not them it's Indiana.

Neither team have played more than 3 over games in a row this year.

I don't know if the lowest postd total system has had any loses this year or not..But chasing Chicago or Indiana hasn't had any loses if you chase it 4 times.

I used this site for all past #'s and backtesting.

Dutch1976 PM Dutch1976
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Posted: 1/8/2014 4:23:27 PM

^ Iwent by the rule that 4gameshad to be scheduled in order for there to be a system play that day.

I've been meaning to backtest the idea that the lowest posted total had to be under 195 or something like that. I think it would cut out a few system loses. One good filter like that could make this system pay off big.

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 1/8/2014 4:26:35 PM
So Tonight would be Indiana@Atlanta 187 under...
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 1/8/2014 4:27:15 PM
I remember someone tracking this before...along with last game of the night to go over...and Highest Total of the day.
hyvong PM hyvong
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Posted: 1/9/2014 11:08:13 PM
I did a few year back and it is not worth to chase. A few times it went to game 7.
hyvong PM hyvong
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Posted: 1/9/2014 11:27:08 PM
However, you still make money if you start your bet after 3-4 streaks. You can do the same with biggest home favor or away favor. That give you a few win each week.
Kaporegime PM Kaporegime
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Posted: 1/14/2014 2:16:28 AM
I love this system, there have been 2 great under streaks, I'm talkin 5-6 in a row, on the flip side around thanksgiving it tanked to around 5 losses in a row, but with good management I see myself using this system for many years to come. Basically siding with vegas
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Dutch1976 PM Dutch1976
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Posted: 1/18/2014 12:47:11 AM
7th over in a row on the lowest posted total tonight. And I'm pretty sure tonight was Chicago's 4th over in a row...This system definitely needs a couple good filters.
Goodsy PM Goodsy
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Posted: 1/18/2014 5:21:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dutch1976:

7th over in a row on the lowest posted total tonight. And I'm pretty sure tonight was Chicago's 4th over in a row...This system definitely needs a couple good filters.

Certainly feels like everything has been going over lately.. 7th over in a row for the Lowest Total is a bad run..

NBA totals, for me atleast, is a tough one to set up a successful system for.. 
Goodsy PM Goodsy
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Posted: 1/20/2014 4:27:53 AM
Back in the W column today… after a billion Overs in a row it finally hit Under.. only just, overtime was looking to be the party pooper for the 2nd day in a row..
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