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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2013-14 Bowl System Picks
gratefulbets
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#126
Posted: 1/4/2014 4:06:23 PM
lucky…FSU is amazing, schedule not withstanding, but Aub has that intangible. So many big upsets this bowl season. I'm still on the fence as I never bet that game.

Here are my NFL system plays:

KC -pk

SF +2.5



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#127
Posted: 1/4/2014 6:58:25 PM
is the pick sf -2.5??? NOT +2.5... least i can't find anywhere i will get the 9ers as dogs...jst making sure..thxs grateful...
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#128
Posted: 1/4/2014 8:16:17 PM
SF -2.5
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#129
Posted: 1/5/2014 8:00:28 AM
That was TOTAL HorseSheet on the KC game.   INDY shoulda lost.
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#130
Posted: 1/5/2014 12:58:42 PM
Well, when you have a line that opens at -2.5 and moves to +2, and then the game is settled by only 1 point, covering is just a matter of dumb luck. 


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#131
Posted: 1/7/2014 3:36:50 PM
Do you have this week NFL? 
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#132
Posted: 1/9/2014 11:01:30 PM
NFL...I've been tracking various net values since week #11, and then a few more since week #13. Here are the W-L ATS results, so far.

Wk…..Value A & B…..Value C….Value D

11…….4-1
12…….6-0
13…….3-3……………..5-1…………5-3
14…….3-2………….….3-4………....6-3
15…….4-2……………..7-2…………6-2-1
16…….2-1……………..3-2…………6-2
17…….4-1……………..4-1…………5-2
18…….1-0……………..3-0…………2-0 (if KC picked as > +1.0)

total…27-10………….25-10………30-12-1 (or: 29-12-2, or: 29-13-1)

19…..SF pk………….Ind +7.5……..Sea -8
19……………………..SD +9.5……..Ind +7.5
19……………………………………..SF pk
19……………………………………..SD +9.5
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#133
Posted: 1/9/2014 11:49:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

NFL...I've been tracking various net values since week #11, and then a few more since week #13. Here are the W-L ATS results, so far.

Wk…..Value A & B…..Value C….Value D

11…….4-1
12…….6-0
13…….3-3……………..5-1…………5-3
14…….3-2………….….3-4………....6-3
15…….4-2……………..7-2…………6-2-1
16…….2-1……………..3-2…………6-2
17…….4-1……………..4-1…………5-2
18…….1-0……………..3-0…………2-0 (if KC picked as > +1.0)

total…27-10………….25-10………30-12-1 (or: 29-12-2, or: 29-13-1)

19…..SF pk………….Ind +7.5……..Sea -8
19……………………..SD +9.5……..Ind +7.5
19……………………………………..SF pk
19……………………………………..SD +9.5



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#134
Posted: 1/12/2014 9:08:08 AM
No comeback for Indy this week....   that was brutal.
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#135
Posted: 1/12/2014 12:59:42 PM
Yeah, I was afraid of that. After that huge emotional  win, then to travel to a rested, prepared  NE, not good.   
And now slightly similar situations for SF and SD. Maybe, like college playoffs, this is where we get off of the system? I doubt that SD pulls another upset, but the points still look good. SF has a good shot if Kap can run and not throw picks, and if Harbaugh will play aggressive.

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#136
Posted: 1/12/2014 1:05:49 PM
It's all good.  I'm backing up both Cali teams.  More SD though 
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#137
Posted: 1/12/2014 8:02:19 PM
Whew, turned out to be a good weekend: 2-1-1

Wk…....Value A & B………………....Value C……….….Value D

11…….4-1
12…….6-0
13…….3-3……………..5-1…………5-3
14…….3-2………….….3-4………..6-3
15…….4-2……………..7-2…………6-2-1
16…….2-1……………..3-2…………6-2
17…….4-1……………..4-1…………5-2
18…….1-0……………..3-0…………2-0 (if KC picked as > +1.0)

total…27-10……………...25-10………30-12-1 (or: 29-12-2, or: 29-13-1)

19…..SF pk………………….….Ind +7.5…...…..Sea -8
19……………………………….....SD +9.5…….....Ind +7.5
19………………………………………………………......SF pk
19…………………………………….……………..….....SD +9.5

total…28-10…………....26-11……….32-13-2 (or: 31-13-3, or: 31-14-2)
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#138
Posted: 1/12/2014 8:10:58 PM
Whew, turned out to be a good weekend: 2-1-1

Wk….Value A & B…...Value C…….Value D

11…….4-1
12…….6-0
13…….3-3……………..5-1…………5-3
14…….3-2………….….3-4………..6-3
15…….4-2……………..7-2…………6-2-1
16…….2-1……………..3-2…………6-2
17…….4-1……………..4-1…………5-2
18…….1-0……………..3-0…………2-0 (if KC picked as > +1.0)

total…27-10……25-10...30-12-1 (or: 29-12-2, or: 29-13-1)

19…..SF pk……….Ind +7.5…...…..Sea -8
19……………………..SD +9.5…….....Ind +7.5
19……………………………………………...SF pk
19…………………………………….…………SD +9.5

19……1-0……………..1-1…………....2-1-1

total…28-10…..26-11…...32-13-2 (or: 31-13-3, or: 31-14-2)
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#139
Posted: 1/15/2014 12:44:19 AM
 NFC/AFC Playoffs  (wk# 20)

NE +5.5 is the play under Value D
or
Den -3.5 is the play under Value D

SF +5 is the play under Value D
or 
Sea -2  is the play under Value D

There are no other plays within the systems A&B, or C
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#140
Posted: 1/18/2014 6:40:15 PM
Thanks G...  
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#141
Posted: 1/19/2014 2:18:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Thanks G...  

You're welcome, G…

I bet NE @ +6
I bet SF @ +5.5

3 Team Teaser (ties push) T tp 10nfl 10½fb & 7½bk
Pending1/19/14 3:00pm  NFL Football  301 New England Patriots +15½ * vs Denver Broncos 
Pending1/19/14 6:30pm  NFL Football  303 San Francisco 49ers +13 * vs Seattle Seahawks 
Pending1/19/14 6:30pm  NFL Football  303 San Francisco 49ers/Seattle Seahawks Under 50½ *
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#142
Posted: 1/22/2014 12:52:50 AM
SB 48

System's values favor SEA across the board with these minimum lines:

Value A+B: Sea +1.0
Value C: Sea +2.0
Value D: Sea +1.0

I made a small internet bet before my trip to LV on 02/01:
101 Seattle Seahawks +2½ -110* vs Denver Broncos 
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#143
Posted: 7/20/2014 9:04:15 PM
Great posts. Look forward to the upcoming season.
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#144
Posted: 12/4/2014 8:20:05 PM
Really Hope you come with your picks this year Grateful.....    Lets Redeem ourselves from last year!!
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#145
Posted: 12/11/2014 3:47:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Really Hope you come with your picks this year Grateful.....    Lets Redeem ourselves from last year!!
  Agreed.  I hope you post the picks again as well.
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#146
Posted: 12/11/2014 9:33:11 PM
If he was coming back, I'm sure we would have heard from him by now. 

Too bad, I was looking forward to his picks every bowl season. 
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#147
Posted: 12/16/2014 2:44:16 PM

Im afraid so.  I wish he would have passed his system on to atleast somebody

 

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#148
Posted: 12/7/2015 9:15:42 PM
Grateful any chance you post your bowl picks again....   
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#149
Posted: 1/3/2016 8:32:11 PM
Yes, I'm back in the bowls with a winning season. I didn't want to post anything that was untested, or that I wouldn't bet on.
I made some changes to my system, relying heavily on defense points of the past 5 games, for the key value, added to Sagarin team ratings, and schedule value. 

Here it is, very simple to DIY. 

Example:
Defensive points of last 5 games (vs AA teams only)
BSU: 24 points
NIU: 28 points
NET: BSU....................+4 points
Sag rating
BSU:76 points
NIU:66 points
NET: BSU....................+10 points
Sag schedule
BSU:62 points
NIU:62 points
NET: BSU....................+0 points
Net Difference: BSU....+14 points

Listed are only the teams with a Gross value >10
Their Net value: Gross value - line = net value

team...gross...line...net........W/L/P
AZ...13...-9...4...............L
BSU...14...-6.5...7.5.........W
SDSU...17...-2...15..........W
WSU...30...-8.5...21.5......W
VT...33...-14...19............L
MINN...10...-5...5.............W
CAL...22...-7...15.............W
LSU...33...-7...26.............W
AUB...18...-2.5...15.5......W
MSST...19...-5...14..........W
FSU...23...-7...16...........L....QB out
ALA...19...-10...9.............W
MISS...18...-7.5...10.5.....W
UGA...15...-6...9..............W 
ARK...17...-13...4............W
TCU...14...+7...21...........W..QB, RB out
WVU...18...-1...17.........P

GROSS VALUE only picks >10 points: 13-3-1
Filters:
A) QB or RB not starting: 12-2-1 
BGross value with Net Value >7 points: 12-2-1

GROSS VALUE with filters A & B: 10-1-1

Filters are somewhat arbitrary, but should prove to be valuable contributors to eliminate "losers", and provide a higher winning %.
You can adjust the parameters as you like. This is a very small sample, so be cautious.
























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#150
Posted: 1/3/2016 9:21:42 PM
If I have the system correct, Alabama would be the play over Clemson. Correct? 
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