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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2013-14 Bowl System Picks
gratefulbets
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#101
Posted: 12/30/2013 12:32:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lucky leo:

Oh yea they will rebound.  I am certain.  Plus someone did mention that the MAC sucks in bowls.  I think they are like 4-14 last 18.  That is something that we can watch for next year.

Yes, that would have been an excellent filter. No MAC bowl picks last year for the system.
What is up with the MAC? 
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#102
Posted: 12/30/2013 3:01:56 PM
MAC ...just like the Big10 are horrid in bowl games.
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#103
Posted: 12/30/2013 3:08:03 PM
did u see these trends off the frontpage:

ACC: 19-8 as dogs versus an opponent off a win (Miami Florida, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech).
Big 10: 12-3-1 off back-to-back losses (Michigan and Minnesota)
Big 12:  2-8 as dogs versus .750 or greater opponent (Texas and Texas Tech)
CUSA: 10-3 as dog 7 or more off a win (Rice)
MAC: 1-7 off loss of 8 or more points (Buffalo and Northern Illinois)
MWC: 1-6 versus .800 or greater opponent (Utah State)
PAC 12: 1-11 favorite 6 or more points versus opponent off a loss (Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon)
SEC: 1-8 as a favorite of 8 or more points (Texas A&M)

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#104
Posted: 12/31/2013 11:13:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


Yes, that would have been an excellent filter. No MAC bowl picks last year for the system.
What is up with the MAC? 

Yes a great way to look at it as I do is this.  Big 10/ MAC Big Brother/ Little Brother.   SEC/ACC  Big Brother/ Little Brother.  Big 10 and MAC suck in bowls and SEC and ACC are pretty good.  Just my opinion. 

 

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#105
Posted: 12/31/2013 11:19:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

did u see these trends off the frontpage:

ACC: 19-8 as dogs versus an opponent off a win (Miami Florida, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech).
Big 10: 12-3-1 off back-to-back losses (Michigan and Minnesota)
Big 12:  2-8 as dogs versus .750 or greater opponent (Texas and Texas Tech)
CUSA: 10-3 as dog 7 or more off a win (Rice)
MAC: 1-7 off loss of 8 or more points (Buffalo and Northern Illinois)
MWC: 1-6 versus .800 or greater opponent (Utah State)
PAC 12: 1-11 favorite 6 or more points versus opponent off a loss (Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon)
SEC: 1-8 as a favorite of 8 or more points (Texas A&M)

Judging by these trends this is the odd year out.  Where everything changes.  I am currently trying to compile a bowl game "bible".  I am going back and checking previous results.  Most bowl games slate these matchups.  SEC #4  VS Big 10 #3.  So it won't be hard to go back and check to see if the SEC fourth best team owns the big 10 3rd best and so on.  I think if we did this and everyone compared notes in a thread that could be some pretty good info right there.  Cause lets face it SEC is a good conference.  Its showing again.  There #4 team is probably better than most conference #1 teams.   We check this back and for every conference and bowl.  Could be valuable. 
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#106
Posted: 12/31/2013 2:15:06 PM
are we sure Arizona was not indeed the play instead of Arizona state? lol
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#107
Posted: 12/31/2013 4:10:56 PM
LOL No kidding.  I got my bets in early and let Arizona ride. 
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#108
Posted: 12/31/2013 4:58:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Hey Grateful....

what is going on with the bowl picks?   Oh My Gosh.

Definitely a down year....too bad we have to wait 12 months to try them again.   Thanks for your posts....I look forward to them!

There has been so much tweaking and tinkering since he started the system during the regular season that I wonder if it is the exact system, (not just similar), used as last bowl season. Plus college football and NFL are apples and oranges and things can get blurred mixing the two. Seeing as how we don't know how the system truly works as he won't post it.  This thread doesn't belong in system and strategies. Should be in picks or ncaaf forum. 
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#109
Posted: 12/31/2013 10:02:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RalphyBoy:


There has been so much tweaking and tinkering since he started the system during the regular season that I wonder if it is the exact system, (not just similar), used as last bowl season. Plus college football and NFL are apples and oranges and things can get blurred mixing the two. Seeing as how we don't know how the system truly works as he won't post it.  This thread doesn't belong in system and strategies. Should be in picks or ncaaf forum. 

First, this Bowl system is EXACTLY as it was last year. Why would I change a system one iota that after years of tweaking eventually went 6-0?

Second, the "tweaking and tinkering" with both the nfl and college plays produced a lot of net wins, and hopefully will continue to do so. 

Third, I posted my basic system in last year's thread. If it's not detailed enough for you, then you'll just have to spend a little more time educating yourself and maybe come up with your own system that you can share with the forum…the opportunities are many. 

Fourth, Ive been on this site for many years, and I really don't like all of the sh8 that goes down in the main forums. This IS a system AND there is even a system of values for picking these plays that is tied to the line changes, which is outlined in the first post, which anyone can use

Fifth, perhaps if you complain enough you might be able to get this thread closed and then you will have contributed greatly to this forum, because we all know how much prime real estate I'm wasting here. 



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#110
Posted: 12/31/2013 10:09:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fanch:

are we sure Arizona was not indeed the play instead of Arizona state? lol

Yes, I reverse my original reverse and whole heartedly accept the win originally posted. Now if i can only get MGM to see it that way. 


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#111
Posted: 1/1/2014 10:23:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


First, this Bowl system is EXACTLY as it was last year. Why would I change a system one iota that after years of tweaking eventually went 6-0?

Second, the "tweaking and tinkering" with both the nfl and college plays produced a lot of net wins, and hopefully will continue to do so. 

Third, I posted my basic system in last year's thread. If it's not detailed enough for you, then you'll just have to spend a little more time educating yourself and maybe come up with your own system that you can share with the forum…the opportunities are many. 

Fourth, Ive been on this site for many years, and I really don't like all of the sh8 that goes down in the main forums. This IS a system AND there is even a system of values for picking these plays that is tied to the line changes, which is outlined in the first post, which anyone can use

Fifth, perhaps if you complain enough you might be able to get this thread closed and then you will have contributed greatly to this forum, because we all know how much prime real estate I'm wasting here. 



I can't agree with that anymore grateful.  Some people expect someones hard work for free then complain.  I know myself I spent countless hours working on finding successful systems in the NFL.  Always tweaking and looking for something that works better.  Now I have decided to start a bowl "bible" and spend a lot of time watching conferences vs conferences rather than team vs team.  Then use other systems as a filter from there.  I know now that the Mac is terrible.  Consistently.  And I will also see which conferences own other conferences.  Today is a great one.  Big Ten (usually weak) vs SEC (usually strong).  But both qbs are out for the SEC teams.  I am gonna try to look deeper into the conference vs conference scenario over the summer.
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#112
Posted: 1/1/2014 10:29:40 AM
I have faith..Who are today's picks
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#113
Posted: 1/1/2014 10:42:44 AM
Going Back 5 years New Years Day Games..Favorites are 17-11...With Favorites of 8 or more they are 8-1

O/U's of  60 or more are 7-0 Over

Thoughts?
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#114
Posted: 1/1/2014 12:37:22 PM
Thanks for all the input.......
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#115
Posted: 1/1/2014 12:51:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CBARocks:

I have faith..Who are today's picks

I've spent the past few days backtesting some older system plays, and some new variables, hoping to salvage the remainder of the bowls. So far I'm at 14-5 through 12-31 games..

These are not tried and true, it is a simple system that looks at various Sagarin values coupled with each team's overall strength of schedule. The net difference between each team in the bowl match ups is the net value. But, there are 3 categories of this value so the other 2 values can not be against the team with the initial net value…those will be listed as no play (np)

WSU  -4.5……9….L

USC -6,,,,,,,,,,,,8,,,,,W 

Buff  -1……….5…np

Tu -2…………4….L

ECU -13.5….19…W

OrSt -3……….5….W

BGr -5………..6…np

NIl -1.5……….1…np

Marsh -2.5…..9….W

Minn -4……..12…QB out…np

WU -3……….8…..W

ND -15.5……23….L

UNC -3….…..4…..W

Lou -3.5…….24.....W

KsSt -4……….3…np

Navy -6………9…W

Ms -3…………6….W

Or -14……….16….W

AzSt -14…….22….L

Az -7.5……….11…W

UCLA -7……..16….W

MsSt -7……….6…..W

TxAM -12…….12….L

UGA -9……….11……..QB out

NTx -6.5………14

Wisc pk………..6…..np

LSU -7……….20….QB out

Stan -4.5……..10

Bay -16.5…….21

Al -14.5……….15

OkSt +1………..2

OhSt -3………..7

Hou +3………..4 (should be np but Van QB is out so I'm playing Hou)

Ball -9………..14 (MAC concern?)

FlSt -8………..22






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#116
Posted: 1/1/2014 12:52:48 PM
So far I'm at 14-5 through 12-31 games..

Should be 13-5
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#117
Posted: 1/1/2014 1:00:14 PM
But, there are 3 categories of this value so the other 2 values can not be against the team with the initial net value…those will be listed as no play (np)

Let me clarify that: neither one of the other 2 categories net value, if on the opposing team, can have a value larger than the initial net value.
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#118
Posted: 1/1/2014 5:51:39 PM
Thanks
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#119
Posted: 1/2/2014 9:50:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


First, this Bowl system is EXACTLY as it was last year. Why would I change a system one iota that after years of tweaking eventually went 6-0?

Second, the "tweaking and tinkering" with both the nfl and college plays produced a lot of net wins, and hopefully will continue to do so. 

Third, I posted my basic system in last year's thread. If it's not detailed enough for you, then you'll just have to spend a little more time educating yourself and maybe come up with your own system that you can share with the forum…the opportunities are many. 

Fourth, Ive been on this site for many years, and I really don't like all of the sh8 that goes down in the main forums. This IS a system AND there is even a system of values for picking these plays that is tied to the line changes, which is outlined in the first post, which anyone can use

Fifth, perhaps if you complain enough you might be able to get this thread closed and then you will have contributed greatly to this forum, because we all know how much prime real estate I'm wasting here. 


Wow. I've never complained on this forum and if you check the history of this and last years thread I am one of the first to get on here and defend you against those that do.   If you truly got all butthurt about my post the, I'm at a loss.  It was not an attack on you.  Sorry for not kissing your a$$ for once. 
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#120
Posted: 1/2/2014 4:09:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gratefulbets:


I've spent the past few days backtesting some older system plays, and some new variables, hoping to salvage the remainder of the bowls. So far I'm at 14-5 through 12-31 games..

These are not tried and true, it is a simple system that looks at various Sagarin values coupled with each team's overall strength of schedule. The net difference between each team in the bowl match ups is the net value. But, there are 3 categories of this value so the other 2 values can not be against the team with the initial net value…those will be listed as no play (np)

WSU  -4.5……9….L

USC -6,,,,,,,,,,,,8,,,,,W 

Buff  -1……….5…np

Tu -2…………4….L

ECU -13.5….19…W

OrSt -3……….5….W

BGr -5………..6…np

NIl -1.5……….1…np

Marsh -2.5…..9….W

Minn -4……..12…QB out…np

WU -3……….8…..W

ND -15.5……23….L

UNC -3….…..4…..W

Lou -3.5…….24.....W

KsSt -4……….3…np

Navy -6………9…W

Ms -3…………6….W

Or -14……….16….W

AzSt -14…….22….L

Az -7.5……….11…W

UCLA -7……..16….W

MsSt -7……….6…..W

TxAM -12…….12….L

UGA -9……….11……..QB out

NTx -6.5………14

Wisc pk………..6…..np

LSU -7……….20….QB out

Stan -4.5……..10

Bay -16.5…….21

Al -14.5……….15

OkSt +1………..2

OhSt -3………..7

Hou +3………..4 (should be np but Van QB is out so I'm playing Hou)

Ball -9………..14 (MAC concern?)

FlSt -8………..22






Thanks for not giving up Grateful... I knew you were up to some calculating ...   
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#121
Posted: 1/2/2014 7:07:18 PM
1-2 on 01-01, so now 14-7.

I don't like Al -17 as the net value is only 15. Perhaps the better play is on Ok +17.
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#122
Posted: 1/3/2014 6:03:44 PM
I'm playing Mo +3 -120….the values look better for Mo.  
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#123
Posted: 1/3/2014 11:29:04 PM
Do you have an updated version with the line changes included?  I appreciate the help!  I could really use a bowl win!
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#124
Posted: 1/4/2014 11:25:31 AM
Good job Grateful.  I agree with it all.  Vandy its tough to go against an sec team but I like Houston.  Ball St looks awesome but with the Mac woes I find it hard to go with them.  I will take the points.  And judging by the previous games I like FSU more.  They had a weak schedule but they demolished the teams.  Missouri didn't make Auburn look like a championship team.  But what FSU did to Clemson and what Clemson did to Ohio St makes FSU look great.
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#125
Posted: 1/4/2014 2:44:56 PM
Nice work again on the bowl games and thanks for all the effort you put into it.  

Do you have any insights for the NFL wildcard games this weekend?  
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