2013-14 Bowl System Picks

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2013-14 Bowl System Picks
RalphyBoy PM RalphyBoy
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Posted: 12/19/2013 5:11:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fanch:

I'd like to echo cg2's question. When you say you don't play the blue games, do you mean the blue and black ones, or you only play green and red, as in you would only play Buffalo, Arizona, Bowl Green, Fla state, and possibly Tulane? Ty!

Having followed him the past 2 seasons the answer is yes, he only plays the green and red. The blue and black would fall into small plays if you choose. They havel
RalphyBoy PM RalphyBoy
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Posted: 12/19/2013 5:13:04 PM
They have some value, just not as much as the green and red. The green and red were 6-0 last year, but nothing is definite. 
timgopack PM timgopack
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Posted: 12/19/2013 8:30:38 PM
to help everyone out with a little information I know as it pertains to Florida State and Auburn if you listen to the behind the bets podcast with Chad Millman on ESPN he interviewed and does interview every week the manager of the one of the sports books in Las Vegas I can't remember which one right now but the reason some  books have auburn not getting as many points is because they're doing it to try and balance their bets because they have a lot of money invested in the future bets on Auburn that were anywhere from 500 to 1000 to 1 that they will have to pay if auburn Wins so they make the line lower to get more money on Florida State. Gratefulbets is awesome and I hope you have another great year like you did last year! He really knows his stuff!
timgopack PM timgopack
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Posted: 12/19/2013 8:35:14 PM
Pardon my English with run on sentences & stuff I'm writing this on my phone in a hurry on break :) At some places buffalo winter from 3 point favorite to a 2 points under dog!! 
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 12:34:35 AM
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>UPDATE>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

In my hurry to get these picks out, I just noticed that I placed the wrong info for Arizona…it should be Az ST 

AzSt…-14…..27………27………………….13………13



gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 12:56:07 AM
I'm very sorry for that Arizona mistake. They are listed next to each other so I just screwed up.  I know some of you have already placed your bets. I'm in the same boat, as i just returned this evening from making my plays on the bowls and NFL. They are not playing until Monday after Christmas so hopefully you have time to switch your bets. Parlay players might have a chance to hedge their bet if the parlay is still alive with a Buf and BGr win…I'm assuming no one is playing Tulane as the line moved from RED to BLUE right after visited the bowls. 
AzSt was at -12.5 today at MGM Grand. 

gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 12:58:54 AM
I'm assuming no one is playing Tulane as the line moved from RED to BLUE right after I listed the bowls. 
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 1:42:22 AM
While working on the Bowl system, a few games, that although do not fit the system criteria, stood out as interesting plays…totally subjective.

Tulane -2.5…..see post #19

OrSt -3….played a tougher road schedule and scored better

KsSt -4…offense's trending in opposite direcrtions

UCLA -7…a hot team vs. a mediocre team, also, 1,000 miles closer for a home field advantage?

Iowa +7…Mettenberger out, and Iowa is already a blue pick

TxAM -12…Duke QB out?
 
NTx -6.5…home field

Hou +3…Vandy QB out…blue play 




gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 2:24:41 AM
NFL Wk #16

I spent a good deal of time back testing the past 5 weeks of NFL with those systems I've been posting. 
First off, here is what I have as a final tally (with some minor changes to the original posted plays) for most of those plays I had posted. 

Original system:
Wk#……W/L
11…....…4-1
12………6-0
13………3-3
14……....3-2
15………4-2
total……20-8 = 72%

New system
Wk#……W/L
13………5-1
14………3-2
15………3-1
total……11-4 = 74%

Utilizing both systems (not just picking the teams from both systems that are the same), I back tested a few filters and this is the result.
Wk#……W/L
13………3-1
14………5-2
15………7-2
total……15-5 = 75%

Again, these are very small samples but they are derived from my base system of stats that have a longer history of being good predictors. However, maintaining a mid 70's % level will be a challenge.

Here are this week's picks using that back tested combo system which has  the highest win% and best ROI.

Car -3

StL -4.5

Cin -7...I did not play this in Vegas… 4 books that I checked had it at -7.5 

Den -10

SD -10

SF -12.5 

I am listing the regular plays and the new system plays for tracking purposes, only. 
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 2:30:12 AM
I am listing the regular plays and the new system plays for tracking purposes only. 

Regular plays
Den -10
SD -10
SF -12.5

New (former) plays 
Miami -2.5
Dallas -3 
Den -10
NYG +9
NE +2.5
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 11:19:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fanch:

I'd like to echo cg2's question. When you say you don't play the blue games, do you mean the blue and black ones, or you only play green and red, as in you would only play Buffalo, Arizona, Bowl Green, Fla state, and possibly Tulane? Ty!

Yes, I only play the strongest groups RED and GREEN….that's why I list the selection process and show the BLUE games as some games might move from BLUE to RED, or vice versa, as the lines change.

CG2A PM CG2A
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Posted: 12/20/2013 11:23:22 AM
Ok to confirm there are 4 official plays (buff, bowling green, Arizona St & Fl St)

The others are small plays if played (Tulane, wash, K St, Tex, Wis, Iowa, Houston)

Thanks for all the help and happy holidays to everyone!!
CG
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gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 12:37:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CG2A:

Ok to confirm there are 4 official plays (buff, bowling green, Arizona St & Fl St)

The others are small plays if played (Tulane, wash, K St, Tex, Wis, Iowa, Houston)

Thanks for all the help and happy holidays to everyone!!
CG


Roger that. 

I did lay small bets on OrSt -2.5, Wash -3, and KsSt -3.5. These are not part of the system plays.



glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 12/20/2013 1:16:40 PM
r u officially off Tulane Grateful?
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 12/20/2013 1:21:13 PM
i mean....did u bet it as a red play or small like a blue play
sfg8 PM sfg8
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Posted: 12/20/2013 2:04:26 PM
grateful..thxs for posting and all your hard work..bol.. and happy and prosperous new yr...you're the best...
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 3:40:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

r u officially off Tulane Grateful?

I'm glad to hear from you. What's happening with your parlay?

Yes, I did not play Tulane. I'm conflicted because I see another angle with Laf's QB out which, by default, should give Tulane more value to overcome that 2 points,  but in the end I'm not playing it, unless the line drops to -1 (but that's a moot point as I'm not flying back to Vegas until next Thurs).  I did make some small plays on other college games, as I posted above, but not Tulane. 
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 12/20/2013 6:49:41 PM
i asked my local a question about raising my limits....and just mentioned i accidently put Az instead of az state....he cancelled it and was able to change it, so right now i have the 4 big plays and 2 open.    so hopefully the NFL plays come thru or the lines switch to include some more of your plays.


seems like a short list this year.
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/20/2013 7:33:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

i asked my local a question about raising my limits....and just mentioned i accidently put Az instead of az state....he cancelled it and was able to change it, so right now i have the 4 big plays and 2 open.    so hopefully the NFL plays come thru or the lines switch to include some more of your plays.


seems like a short list this year.
Glad to hear you could change it. Well, it was 6 last year, and 5 this year until Tuesday. Maybe another line move adds a new game. I'm also tracking something else that I didn't want to introduce to the Forum but if it does well the first 15 games or so, I'll list the rest. Meanwhile, let's see how these first 2 games do.  
RalphyBoy PM RalphyBoy
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Posted: 12/20/2013 8:49:33 PM
Wow. Buffalo at +2. Something going on there?
Red_Soxxxxxxxx PM Red_Soxxxxxxxx
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Posted: 12/20/2013 10:08:37 PM
I have Arizona locked in. It's an omen. Thanks Grateful and good luck
gratefulbets PM gratefulbets
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Posted: 12/21/2013 12:33:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

I have Arizona locked in. It's an omen. Thanks Grateful and good luck

HAHA, that's a good omen, amen. Good luck to you.
Luckydan PM Luckydan
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Posted: 12/21/2013 1:48:24 PM
Buffalo at P and even -1 at some shops. Sounds like Billy Walters likes the Buffalo side as well.

GL
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 12/21/2013 6:26:16 PM
Buffalo looking horrible right now. Need to turn this around and fast.
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Red_Soxxxxxxxx PM Red_Soxxxxxxxx
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Posted: 12/21/2013 6:39:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Buffalo looking horrible right now. Need to turn this around and fast.

Agreed. I will be 5-1 and down a lot on the day if this loses. Oh we'll, let's see if they realize they have a football game today
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