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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Post All-Star game system
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#1
Posted: 12/9/2013 1:50:16 AM

I was thinking about the baseball post All-Star game systems (my fade system and CKP22's system) and wondered if this would translate to NHL. Did a back test for 3 seasons using the following parameters:

Target teams that at the break are 10 games or more above or below .500. An OT loss is considered a loss. For teams 10 above .500 play them on a chase when they have at least a 3 game homestand. For teams 10 below .500, chase when they have at least a 3 game road trip. Chase up to 4 games only (only 1 time in 3 years did it go to a game 4). Win 1 and done, no double dipping.

Obviously no results from last year since there was no ASB. Also in 2009-2010 I used the Olympic break as the ASB. I tested the 09-10, 10-11 and 11-12 seasons so far. Not a lot of plays but for those 3 years it is undefeated at 69-0.

When I have more time I'll back test further, but for now just wanted to put this out there and maybe get some dialogue going.

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#2
Posted: 12/9/2013 9:51:51 AM

Hi Dan, I assume you mean fade the Road team that is 10 games under .500 and on a 3 game road trip?    Also, I'm not all that familiar with the MLB system, but I am assuming that after the ASB, that the teams will be static?   Meaning, once that line in the sand is drawn, those teams will be played for the remaining of the year?

Thanks as always.

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#3
Posted: 12/9/2013 4:14:23 PM

Yes fade the road team 10 games under and on the home team 10 games over. The teams do not change, once you make the list, those are the target teams. Of course we need to be smart and watch for major injuries.

I looked at playing all the games but got a couple losses. What I mean by all games is say Pitt is 10 games over .500 at the break. Play all of their home games and chase for up to 3-4 games. Once they win, start over. The 2011-2012 season would have added 100+ wins but there were 2 losses.  I guess if you did this on a labby line you could come out pretty well. I'll need to test for those other years as I did it just for the one year. Hmm, that has me really thinking about this again. Let me run some numbers when I get a chance.

On a side note, if you bet baseball, the post ASB systems have been money.

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#4
Posted: 12/9/2013 5:27:22 PM
I run a very similar system to this, but I start it after the 1st month of play… though I was late to start because I was on hols. 

I play it as martingale ABC… if I come to a series loss then I take the losing bets and revert to aggressive labby ABC to recover, during the recovery stage I am also trying to win a half unit profit.. after 3 wins on this I then switch back to martingale ABC.

I do that pretty much for all systems I run and it has been running smoothly so far..
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#5
Posted: 2/10/2014 9:58:55 PM
Dan, any further updates on this? 
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#6
Posted: 2/10/2014 11:06:35 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bart_:

Dan, any further updates on this? 

I only tested the previous 3 seasons as previously mentioned.

The teams that qualify this year for the home chase are: Boston, Pittsburgh, STL, Chicago, Colorado, Anaheim, SJ.

The qualifying road FADE teams are: Florida, Buffalo, NJ, NYI, Calgary and Edmonton.

More info to follow.

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#7
Posted: 2/10/2014 11:31:04 PM

There are 22 series that qualify.

Bet on Home teams (homestand start dates listed):

  • Boston - March 13
  • Pitt - March 22, April 9
  • STL - March 27
  • Chicago - March 1, March 19
  • Colo - April 4
  • Anaheim - Feb 28, March 31
  • San Jose - March 4, March 18, April 1

Bet against Road teams

  • Florida - March 18
  • Buffalo - March 3, March 18, April 3
  • NJ - March 11
  • NYI - March 4, April 10
  • Calgary - March 30
  • Edmonton - March 11, April 1

Note: I do not like the NYI -  March 4 matchups. The start off in Winnipeg then go to Edmonton and Calgary. They have a 4th game in Vancouver however. If I bet this one, I'm going light and hope it doesn't get to a game 4.

 

 

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#8
Posted: 2/11/2014 1:01:45 AM
Blackhawks start March 1 vs PIT as part of stadium series at soldier field. Due to weather, ice conditions, etc... I may sit that 3 game home stand out. Too many variables opposed to the traditional home game
Posted using a mobile device.
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#9
Posted: 2/11/2014 1:56:40 AM
Good point otunj, I agree. 
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#10
Posted: 2/11/2014 2:17:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Note: I do not like the NYI -  March 4 matchups. The start off in Winnipeg then go to Edmonton and Calgary. They have a 4th game in Vancouver however. If I bet this one, I'm going light and hope it doesn't get to a game 4.

Remember the Post ASG baseball system last year?  There was an all-time high for the number of teams that qualified, setting up many series where the qualifying teams where playing each other.  As a result, it had it's worst year on record.  All the losses came from those series matchups.  What would be a good idea, going forward, is to eliminate all those series where two qualifying teams match up against each other.  That should go for this system, also.  For the NHL, if a qualifying team has at least 2 of the 3 games against another qualifying team, in their "bracket", the series should be passed. 

 

 

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#11
Posted: 2/11/2014 11:13:25 AM
I like that idea Bruin. I'll modify the series qualifiers and repost. 
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#12
Posted: 2/12/2014 4:44:39 AM
Hi Dan

Will you be running the "RPI" chase system this season?
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#13
Posted: 2/12/2014 11:14:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Systemtrend:

Hi Dan

Will you be running the "RPI" chase system this season?

If B2W does not come back to run this system (it is his system) and nobody else volunteers, then yes I will run it.  We have until May to figure it out. 
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#14
Posted: 2/13/2014 2:15:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:


If B2W does not come back to run this system (it is his system) and nobody else volunteers, then yes I will run it.  We have until May to figure it out. 

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#15
Posted: 2/22/2014 8:04:20 PM
Just checked the 2008-2009 season. I got the record of 26-3 on a 4 game chase.

17-1 for betting on teams at least 10 over .500
9-2 for fading teams at least 10 under .500.

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#16
Posted: 2/27/2014 11:39:32 PM
Friday - We start the regular chase with Anaheim. We are betting that they win 1 game out of 3 vs STL, Car, MTL.
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#17
Posted: 3/1/2014 1:53:07 AM

Friday results: Anaheim wins on the A game and are done.

In my earlier post where I listed the plays, I had Chicago for March 1. We are voiding that play. Not only is the first game an outdoor game but they play 2 of 3 vs teams that qualified for the regular chase. As we found out in the baseball chase, that spells trouble, so we will play it safe here.

next play is fading Buffalo starting on March 3.

Total: 1-0

A: 1-0

 

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#18
Posted: 3/3/2014 2:12:09 PM

Monday: Today's play is bet on Dallas as we enter a chase fading Buffalo.

Total: 1-0

A: 1-0

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#19
Posted: 3/3/2014 11:39:21 PM

Monday results: Dallas (fade Buffalo) wins on the A game. 

Next play is Tuesday on SJ. Note: The NYI were scheduled to be a FADE play but 2 of their 3 games are against other FADE teams, so no play on that series.

Total: 2-0

A: 2-0

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#20
Posted: 3/4/2014 3:06:53 PM

Guys - Starting Wednesday I will be on vacation for 2 weeks with no internet access. So I have posted the plays below for the regular chase and the FADE chase systems. I eliminated games that do not qualify because they play 2 or more teams that also qualify for the same system. It is chase up to 3 games to win 1 and done.

SJ - 3/4 (today), 3/6, 3/8

Bos - 3/13, 3/15, 3/17

SJ - starts 3/18 (I'll be back after this)

FADE system (bet against team to lose 1, up to 4 game chase)

NJ - 3/11, 3/14, 3/15

EDM - 3/11, 3/13, 3/14, 3/16

Fla - 3/18 (I'll be back after this)

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#21
Posted: 3/4/2014 3:40:46 PM
Quick question..did u mistype the colorado april 4 series? Only 3 game home stand i'm seeing begins march 8, but looks like that would be eliminated (vs CHI, STL)

Thanks for everything btw!
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#22
Posted: 3/4/2014 3:45:14 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by otunj:

Quick question..did u mistype the colorado april 4 series? Only 3 game home stand i'm seeing begins march 8, but looks like that would be eliminated (vs CHI, STL)

Thanks for everything btw!

Yes that should have read March 8, but it is eliminated as you show,

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#23
Posted: 3/5/2014 1:20:46 AM

Tuesdat results: SJ loses on the A game, goes to B game Thursday.

See post 20 for all scheduled plays.

Total: 2-0

A: 2-1

B: 0-0 (SJ Pending)

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#24
Posted: 3/11/2014 2:18:31 AM
Tuesday: Play Philly (fade NJ) and Minny (fade Edmonton) on the A game.
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#25
Posted: 3/12/2014 12:35:08 AM
Tuesday results: Philly (fade NJ) and Minny (fade Edm) both lose on the A game. 

STL (fade Edm) on the B game Thurs and FLA (fade NJ) on the B game Friday.
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