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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL 60 minute draw - chase
rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rivermonsterz
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#1
Posted: 11/23/2013 1:01:05 AM
So Dan's over/under totals system sparked an idea in my head to chase every team for the 60 minute draw.

Due to odds usually being above $4.00 (+300?), a martingale chase could work.

Below is a list of the teams with the first number being the longest streak of games without OT played this year, and the second number being how many times they have played OT for this year.

I just wanted to bounce some ideas off some of you more experienced guys out there, just to see if it could work.

I do not have any numbers from previous years.

Central
Chicago: 4 - 7
Colorado: 11 - 2
Dallas: 5 - 6 
Minnesota: 7 - 6
Nashville: 9 - 3
St Louis: 5 - 6
Winnipeg: 7 - 8
TOTAL OT: 38

Pacific
Anaheim: 7 - 6
Calgary: 10- 7 
Edmonton: 8 - 4
LA: 4 - 8
Phoenix: 6 - 8
San Jose: 6 - 8
Vancouver: 4 - 9
TOTAL OT: 50

Atlantic
Boston: 11 - 4
Buffalo: 8 - 4
Detroit: 7 - 8
Florida: 8 - 6
Montreal: 15 - 3
Ottawa: 8 - 5
Tampa Bay: 5 - 7
Toronto: 9 - 4
TOTAL OT: 41

Metropolitan
Carolina: 7 - 6
Columbus: 13 - 5
New Jersey: 5 - 7
NY Islanders: 7 - 6
NY Rangers: 13 - 1
Philadelphia: 13 - 2
Pitsburgh: 14 - 1
Washington: 6 - 7
TOTAL OT: 35

TOTAL OT: 164

Now I know it would be a good idea to go and back test, but I have no idea how to do that as of yet (planning on starting to learn the skills over the Christmas Holidays)

Just some food for thought above, and it would be great to hear back on whether this is a feasible idea or not.
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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 11/23/2013 1:03:20 AM
I would also add that if you are trying to win 1 unit per team, per game, I would like to at least keep 500 units set aside for this.

I have not sat down and down some proper calcs as of yet however.
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#3
Posted: 11/23/2013 1:22:40 AM
Interesting stuff. I'm not going to do research on this because where I bet doesn't offer that prop bet. At least I don't think so anyway. I better make sure on that. Will chime in later with any ideas if I come up with any.
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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 11/23/2013 4:34:54 AM
Just had a quick look at some calcs.  With odds of $4.00 (+300) the bets start to get out of control at around the 11th chase mark.

I have worked out that if you were to cancel a chase after 9 losses, a restarted a new one, the system would be up 60 units roughly so far for the year (as opposed to the 160 if you just kept chasing).

I should also mention that most games I see odds of $4.20 - $4.35. (+320, +335)
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#5
Posted: 11/24/2013 4:24:41 AM
Total number of OTs played in;
2010-11 = 307
2011-12 = 292

The longest streak I can see a team without playing OT is 17, which is highly chase-able.

Just trying to decide now, how far from the end of the season would you start the last chase. 20 games from the end? would that be around late February?
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GreenMachine22 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 11/24/2013 11:24:31 AM
river...this looks promising.  Back testing is as simple as looking through each and every day's worth of games here on covers...under the "scores" tab.  Tedious, yes - but necessary when testing/considering viable wagering options.


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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 11/25/2013 6:23:30 AM
I'll set aside this weekend for some tedious back testing then. Looking forward to my first back test, I'll let you know how it pans out.
The thing that worries me a little however is that most of the books here in oz only offer about $3.80 for the tie, which could get rather dangerous with some of the chases that would have occurred so far for this season. It makes me wonder if this turns profitable how long before the book offering $4.20 catches on and brings it in line with the others.
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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 12/12/2013 4:42:36 AM
So work has been crazy lately, therefore no back testing. I have been tracking this since I posted first, and basically it looks good so far if you play to win 10 units then clear the lines. Has cleared twice since original post. Back testing will be done from the 27th dec - 31 dec when I'm away in a small coastal town with my grandparents so stay tuned to find out whether this is a flop or a handy little money maker.
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Spreader777
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#9
Posted: 12/18/2013 6:26:24 AM
I used to do something similar a few years ago.  Chase for OT, but only select from the Wagerline Survivor leader board...  Any NHL game that was picked by a leader with a streak of 9 wins or more was amazingly an overtime game at least 1/3 of the time.  I'm not sure if it still works, but it wouldn't hurt to monitor the results.  I would not randomly chase the NHL for OT.  GL
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#10
Posted: 12/30/2013 6:42:33 PM
I've been playing this for about two weeks now and it usually earns around 2 to 5 units per night (I think, I only recently started tracking my daily earnings). I'm up 14 units in the last week and a half or so, including the Christmas break. I've been skipping the Rangers, Predators, Flyers and Penguins but I think I'm going to start including them as well.

I'm thinking of stopping sometime in early to mid March. Maybe a bit earlier for the teams that don't make it to OT very often. What do you guys think?
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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#11
Posted: 1/9/2014 4:19:59 AM
So have done some basic backtesting of 2010/2011, 2011/2012, and this current season.

Have been playing this since the 24th November, 2013, but the rules are, as soon as you hit a profit, you re-set the chase.

Am currently up about 61 units.

Go forth and prosper!

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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
rivermonsterz
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#12
Posted: 1/9/2014 4:24:07 AM
oh and i should have said the back testing i did was more than enough for me to put my balls on the line and up my units big time.
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#13
Posted: 1/9/2014 12:26:20 PM
Thanks for the info. What unit size are you using relative to your bankroll? I've been betting to win 1% of my bankroll. After doing a bit of testing, I think 1% might be just a bit much considering we have to account for the occasional streaks of no overtime for up to 15 games or so. Here's the tables I've used to figure out what unit size I want to be using.

.5% units
http://i.imgur.com/xieNGBr.jpg

.75% units
http://i.imgur.com/TKu7geF.jpg

1% units
http://i.imgur.com/lK3L44j.jpg
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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#14
Posted: 1/9/2014 7:08:19 PM
In back testing I found some very long streaks some over 20 games, all added up that would be a lot of money out of your account.
What I did notice is that if you reset the chase every time you were in profit you only require 20 units in your bankroll. I have been playing to win $100 from each team each game, the longest I have had to chase for is 10 days, but after day 10 profit went to 17.5 units...
.
After that the chase was re set, as some lines still had quite a few numbers which could easily get out of hand and eat in to your profits.
Yesterday started a new chase and profited 0.7 units, so I re set that chase too.
The most uneconomical chase I have had this season was 5 days of hockey for 2.4 units.
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