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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Narwhal NCAAF & NFL Pick Strategy
Narwhal send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Narwhal
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#1
Posted: 10/28/2013 2:49:49 PM
I have put together a set of guidelines for picking NCAAF & NFL games.

I use four factors when coming up with picks:

- Line movement
- Public %
- Predicted Spreads (I have a calculation I use to predict spreads)
- Power Rating

All four factors go into my plays and all four must line up.

I have been messing around with these for awhile trying to perfect the right combination of factors when picking games.  I feel that i have finally figured out the right numbers. This is not a system for action junkies as there will be a limited number of games each week that meet the criteria.

One more thing to take note, because public % and line movement are important factors picks are usually not made until 1 hour to 30min before game time.

Basically i wanted to create this thread as a place holder and i will be back throughout the week as plays come available that meet the criteria of the system and i will post them ITT.



 
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Narwhal
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#2
Posted: 10/28/2013 7:51:42 PM
blackhawks -133
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Narwhal
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#3
Posted: 10/28/2013 7:51:57 PM
wrong thread.
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Narwhal
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#4
Posted: 10/30/2013 3:14:01 PM
We have a play tonight

Memphis +1.5

- Opposite line movement
- 30% of bets coming in on Memphis spread
- my predicted spread came in at Memphis +0
- Power ratings I use have Memphis slightly ahead of Cincy.

Because all of these factors line up Memphis +1.5 is a play tonight.
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Narwhal
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#5
Posted: 10/30/2013 3:15:58 PM
I am posting this play early compare to when I usually post them but that is bc I could see the line continue to drop and I don't dont predict a big change in the public % on Memphis.
Posted using a mobile device.
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Narwhal
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#6
Posted: 10/30/2013 11:50:02 PM
System #1:

memphis +1.5

0-1



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Narwhal
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Location: Greenland
#7
Posted: 10/30/2013 11:52:21 PM
System #2:

West Virginia +14
Minnesota +10
South Alabama -3
Tulane +3.5

I know some of the numbers wont be able to get picked up right now.  With this system i base off power ratings and point differential between my spreads and actual spreads.  I usually pick these games sunday or monday right when the lines come out.  I will start posting them when i play them from here on out.
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