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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Totals system
System_Grind3r send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#101
Posted: 11/15/2013 2:44:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

not great today.
2-4-1.
Net profit for the day: -5.48 units

Are you betting to win 2u a game today? I am at -2.65 units today. But have a starting labby line of 1u. Everyone should be getting different numbers each day now since so many different labby variations going on. 

Tomorrow I betting to win 1u every game except sjs/edm I am betting to win 1.425u and ANA/CAR i am betting to win 1.375u. 

Hopefully I can profit a couple units by end of week. 
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#102
Posted: 11/15/2013 7:39:44 PM
I will be full steam ahead with this system starting tomorrow. I will be back testing if I want to do martingale via 3 game chase or just keep doing labby as I am now.
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#103
Posted: 11/16/2013 2:53:16 PM
ATLANTIC DIVISION BASED ON 3 GAME CHASE for this system
bos
a)6-3
b)2-1
c)1-0

buff
a) 6-6
B) 3-2
c) 1-1

DET
A) 6-6
B) 4-1
C) 1-0

FLA
A) 4-5
B) 2-3
C) 3-0

MON
A) 8-4
B) 2-2
C) 2-0

OTT
A) 9-4
B) 3-1
C) 1-0

TB
A)6-6
B)4-1
C)0-1

TOR
A)4-7
B)4-2
C)1-1
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#104
Posted: 11/16/2013 2:58:22 PM
I am guessing at -120 juice on average a loss equates to roughly 10 units per 3 game chase. Its 83-3 for the atlantic division which roughly means you will still be up around 50 units for that division. Most divisions will be similar. I do not think its worth the risk doing martingale for 4,5, or even 6 games to remain undefeated. It does happen and its just way too much risk. I rather lose two series in a row for a total of 20 units than do a six game chase. 

A) 1.2 TO WIN 1
B) 2.64 TO WIN 2.2
C) 5.808 TO WIN 4.84 
BASED ON -120 JUICE. 
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#105
Posted: 11/16/2013 4:18:06 PM
Good stuff system....another thing u can do is redistribute the units from a 3 game chase loss and divide it by however many teams arent currently on a losing streak and chase it that way. A great thing about a system like this is you can and should use very small unit size and still make good money since u are playing every game.
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#106
Posted: 11/16/2013 7:08:01 PM
Anyone know of any good football or nba systems like this? Most of these systems for nba and nfl are losing from what I see. 
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#107
Posted: 11/16/2013 8:04:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:

Anyone know of any good football or nba systems like this? Most of these systems for nba and nfl are losing from what I see. 

NFL:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100847790&page=8

&

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101747393
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#108
Posted: 11/17/2013 4:49:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:

I am guessing at -120 juice on average a loss equates to roughly 10 units per 3 game chase. Its 83-3 for the atlantic division which roughly means you will still be up around 50 units for that division. Most divisions will be similar. I do not think its worth the risk doing martingale for 4,5, or even 6 games to remain undefeated. It does happen and its just way too much risk. I rather lose two series in a row for a total of 20 units than do a six game chase. 

A) 1.2 TO WIN 1
B) 2.64 TO WIN 2.2
C) 5.808 TO WIN 4.84 
BASED ON -120 JUICE. 

Nice, gonna back test over the offseason.
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#109
Posted: 11/17/2013 5:31:29 PM
Grinder....did you play an A game everyday and if that lost, chase...for each team?
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#110
Posted: 11/17/2013 8:39:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Grinder....did you play an A game everyday and if that lost, chase...for each team?

I am running a labby for each team, but I am new to this system so most of my lines are fresh and have no idea where I am interms of units. I am trying to start with 1# on my labby line worth 1/2 a unit. So with fresh lines when two teams go against each other and it wins I win a total of 1u. I see a lot of people playing two units per game, but I think that is too risky. 

I am thinking of some other ones for NFL, NBA, and MLB. I did some testing for similar stuff for MLB betting every game under. I am considering doing the same approach with NBA for DOGS and NFL for dogs as well. 1/2 unit with 1# as a starting labby line. If the team is a favorite instead of a dog just fade for the labby. I'll give more examples later. Gotta go!
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#111
Posted: 11/17/2013 8:42:05 PM
Will have a few days off this coming weekend, so looking forward to testing this season for a short sample with unders and dogs since public tends to drive most of spreads up so we could benefit from taking dogs and unders. I would consider taking all unders for hockey, but there is logic to 5 and 5.5 since average margin falls right in the middle. 

Any thoughts or advice in future testing is appreciative. I am still considering 3 game chase or labby. I like labby long run, but it is a bit of a hassle doing all the lines each and every day. 

I am on KC +7.5 for late game. Lets get it!
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#112
Posted: 11/18/2013 12:38:08 AM
Played this very system expect im taking the alternative under 6/6.5 line at 5 dimes for each team in each game....Im up 57 units my first week
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#113
Posted: 11/18/2013 7:25:15 AM
From the 2011/12 season (avoiding the 2012/13 strike shorten season), I started a backtest of doing a 3g chase of the O/U, based on the line (5, go over, 5.5, go under) per team.  So far I've only have completed for NY Rangers, NY Islanders, and New Jersey.

Using Covers closing line as $ base, so far, I have this "System Chase" as 107 wins, 9 losses.  43.36 units up.  The 43.36 would based on the fact if you bet 2 units every bet.  You would play the O/U every night as we are now with the Labby.

I'm trying to figure out the easiest way to explain this without confusing anyone (myself included).  
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#114
Posted: 11/18/2013 8:19:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

 

Using Covers closing line as $ base, so far, I have this "System Chase" as 107 wins, 9 losses.  43.36 units up.  The 43.36 would based on the fact if you bet 2 units every bet.  You would play the O/U every night as we are now with the Labby.


We are trying to win 2 units per wager.  Team A and Team B are on an A bet. It loses. At -110 odds, they split the loss of -2.2.  Team A plays Team C next, and Team B plays D.  Team A and C are both on a B bet, so the O/U bet would be to win 4.20 ( one unit each to win and the -1.10 lost on the A bet).  Team B is on the B bet but Team D is on an A bet.  The O/U bet would be 3.10 (one unit for each to win and B's loss on A bet of -1.10).  If both games wins, all teams start on an A bet their next game.
The problem is, what if Teams B/D lost?  The loss would be 3.41 (@-110).  How do you split that up?  I think you would divide 3.41 by 3, as there's 3 total losses (Team B's 2, and D's 1).  3.41/3=1.14, so 2.28 would go to B (2 losses) on it's C leg bet, and D (one loss) would have 1.14.

Anyway, the backtest is looking promising through 3 teams.  Thanx for the idea, Grinder.

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#115
Posted: 11/18/2013 8:21:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by louris54:

Good stuff system....another thing u can do is redistribute the units from a 3 game chase loss and divide it by however many teams arent currently on a losing streak and chase it that way. A great thing about a system like this is you can and should use very small unit size and still make good money since u are playing every game.

Excellent idea.
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#116
Posted: 11/18/2013 8:31:22 PM
This back testing is very tedious. I did not place any bets today and wanted to do some back testing. I wish I had alternate lines at my book, but its straight up. Each loss is roughly 8 units, but I feel a team wins 8 series before it losses so a 3 game chase is profitable. Even just back testing 1-2 months for a team is very tedious and time consuming. I am just working on this current year to see where its at. 
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#117
Posted: 11/18/2013 9:04:53 PM
So looking at the upcoming games for tomorrow there is a ton of action if you were doing labby or A B C chase with this system. 


Thats six c-bets tomorrow. You do need quite a big bankroll for this system which is why i advocated starting with 1/2 a unit for a chase or keeping 200 units for your bankroll. 
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#118
Posted: 11/18/2013 9:07:30 PM
stl -a
buff -a
nyi - b
tor -a
ott -a
phi -a
min -c
mon -b
nas - b
det - c
bos -a
nyr -c
chi - c *this would be 2nd straight series loss
col -a
clb - a
edm -b
fla -a
van - a
tb -c 
la -c

Thats what the lines are suppose to show in previous post. Didn't let me copy and paste from excel some reason. 
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#119
Posted: 11/18/2013 9:12:20 PM
If you do 1 unit for A 2 u for B and 5 unit for C roughly 8 units per series you would have 48 units at risk. That is a little too much discomfort for me. I will be playing each series to win 1/2 a unit. As Buckeye said, it profited over 3 teams 43 units to win 1 unit, so 3 teams is roughly 21.5 units profit doing 1/2 a unit at a time. I am not greedy, so i'll use that as a process until this system is back tested more fully. 
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#120
Posted: 11/18/2013 11:35:49 PM
I have a filter that looks like it will help (I've back tested half the teams in 2011/12 so far).  If you have a 3g loss, wait until that team wins one before starting the A game again.  Added 30+ units.....Nice language, Tom Brady...(end of NFL Monday night game)
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#121
Posted: 11/18/2013 11:38:59 PM
Epic ending to the Monday night game. Was rooting for CAR even though I didn't have any bets today. I am still considering playing this system starting tomorrow. Going to have to go small as I have to use some of my bankroll for recent medical expenses. Considering just going to play poker since its more consistent for me. 
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#122
Posted: 11/19/2013 1:27:24 AM
buck did you finish testing this season or just started testing last season only? 
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#123
Posted: 11/19/2013 6:47:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:

buck did you finish testing this season or just started testing last season only? 

No, I don't have this season downloaded yet, and I scrapped last season when I saw it was strike shorten and went to 2011/12.  The reason I put out that filter was that so far 9 chases went at least 6 straight losses and 1 went to at least 9.
I had the under last night (I'm doing the same on O/U NFL as we are doing here with 44.5 line being the point number) and a 4 team teaser with New England.
Maybe this weekend, I'll download this year's and test it.  I'm doing a quick test in that I'm using 1 unit for a win and -8u for a loss, instead of using the exact numbers Covers has.
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#124
Posted: 11/19/2013 7:53:33 AM
3g chase take Over @ 5 and Under @ 5.5 or 6.
I just downloaded the 2013/14 season and did a quick backtest.  Using 1u as a win and -8u as a loss, I got, including last night's games, and does not include any losses from open series.... I have 328W/15L for 192 units up.
That's playing every game.  The one filter I had did not come up and pushes were as if the game was never played.
However from what I've seen from the 2011/12 season so far, I'm gonna wait to play it.
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#125
Posted: 11/19/2013 4:32:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

3g chase take Over @ 5 and Under @ 5.5 or 6.
I just downloaded the 2013/14 season and did a quick backtest.  Using 1u as a win and -8u as a loss, I got, including last night's games, and does not include any losses from open series.... I have 328W/15L for 192 units up.
That's playing every game.  The one filter I had did not come up and pushes were as if the game was never played.
However from what I've seen from the 2011/12 season so far, I'm gonna wait to play it.

After laying out all the data and seeing how many units are at risk when we have 10 games scared me a little bit. Even though there are 10 games only its 20 chases with 6 c bets and 48 units or more at risk. I think this system is great long run, but definitely need some back testing before I jump in. Even when i considered playing it last night for today I noticed a lot of games are at 5 and I am just not sold on that number yet. Seems like 5 is evenly split between under / wins / and pushes all being 33% this season for that exact number. 

In the future I do think best way of playing this system is a 3 game chase because as you said there was 9 straight losses for one team which would be 24 units lost for those 9 games. The proper backtesting would give us how much of a bankroll we need to pursue such a system. We could than use 1% and increase each chase new chase as our bankroll grows instead of keeping a stagnant unit. I am not worried about sitting out a month or whatever until system is tested. 

I greatly appreciate you testing this buckeye. I only did 4 teams for this season yesterday was was aggravated on how long the process was taking. I was inputting each game into excel and was going to use -120 as standard juice for the system. 

What is so scary about the 2011 / 2012 season? 
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