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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Totals system
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#76
Posted: 11/11/2013 5:26:30 PM
I may need to find a place in Vegas that offers the alt line. Pretty sure my online/mobile apps for Cantor and Station casinos do not offer it.
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louris54 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#77
Posted: 11/11/2013 5:26:53 PM
Okay so far this year, the most games in a row that went over 6/6.5 was 4 and it happened only twice. Small sample size but thats what i got so far
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#78
Posted: 11/11/2013 5:29:48 PM
The 2 teams that lost 4 in a row this year were the NyIslanders and Nashville btw
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hansivonmueller
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#79
Posted: 11/11/2013 6:13:43 PM
What I've been trying, is playing the under (5.0,5.5). Only with teams scoring under the league average of 5.51. This eliminates the high scoring teams, although they may match up with a low scoring team. The 1st play of the chase starts with  U6.5 or U 6.0, after  that it is U5.5 or U 5.0. If a chase is getting too hefty, units are shaved off and redistributed among other plays. This may reduce the action, but the odds of winning appear better so far. The Rangers have three overs in a row, the most so far while trying this. They appear to have gone from an under team to an over team over night. May have to eliminate them from the list if they continue there high scoring ways. So this list is flexible if the stats are pointing to change. If time permits I would like to look at the number of match-ups between low scoring teams only and the results, to see if there is some kind of correlation and the winning percentage.

This is early days, so lots of time to see if the results pan out. I'm keeping units low until I feel absolutely confident in the system. In the mean time, its fun and games. Keep your wagering entertaining and don't let it eat your soul or your bankroll.
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BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#80
Posted: 11/11/2013 6:58:24 PM
For all the line numbers, a push meant the game didn't happen, and is not in any of the records...just easier to do my formulas.

82 games but 5 pushed would look like this 77-0. 
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#81
Posted: 11/11/2013 6:59:01 PM
Rangers have 3 overs in a row? Way more teams have lost 3 in a row overs this year...more like 7 teams. 2 have lost 4 in a row but no more then that.

Did u mean teams with a low scoring average of below 5.51? If so i apoligize for misunderstanding

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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#82
Posted: 11/11/2013 10:16:40 PM
0-1 today. Line was 5.0.
Great work on the back testing and ideas.
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hansivonmueller
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#83
Posted: 11/11/2013 11:29:49 PM
Yes, teams below the league average 5.51. No need for apologies. my english is poor.
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#84
Posted: 11/12/2013 11:19:36 PM
Great day today. I've got results as 7-2-2
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#85
Posted: 11/12/2013 11:56:01 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Great day today. I've got results as 7-2-2

That was much needed after some of the other losses. I got killed today in OT/SO games.

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#86
Posted: 11/13/2013 3:07:11 AM
so basically betting to clear four numbers from your labby lines, two numbers from each team or 1 # off your line from each line per team? Curious how you running your labby lines for this? 
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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#87
Posted: 11/13/2013 4:50:50 AM
It was much needed. Profited about 12-13 units today.
Since the 7th profit is about 5 units. Will continue to track from this date
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#88
Posted: 11/13/2013 3:36:28 PM
I have my labby lines set up as: 

tor: 5 5 5 5 
min 5 5 5 5 
dal 5 5 5 5 
edm 5 5 5 5 
phi 5 5 5 5 
pit 5 5 5 5 

so betting to clear two numbers per team correct? Each line represents 1 unit, so betting 1/2 unit per team which makes the total game starting 1u.  This look right? 
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#89
Posted: 11/13/2013 4:18:21 PM
I know this system is self explanatory but I am reading you guys have a different thing going for each team...can you share the details?  What are tonight's plays/unit sizes?
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#90
Posted: 11/13/2013 4:21:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:

I have my labby lines set up as: 

tor: 5 5 5 5 
min 5 5 5 5 
dal 5 5 5 5 
edm 5 5 5 5 
phi 5 5 5 5 
pit 5 5 5 5 

so betting to clear two numbers per team correct? Each line represents 1 unit, so betting 1/2 unit per team which makes the total game starting 1u.  This look right? 

Yes looks right, except each line would be 2 units (4 x .5 unit). They way you have it shows that your unit betting size is $10. So if Tor was playing Edm, the bet would be to win $20.

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#91
Posted: 11/13/2013 10:50:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Yes looks right, except each line would be 2 units (4 x .5 unit). They way you have it shows that your unit betting size is $10. So if Tor was playing Edm, the bet would be to win $20.


I did not want my lines to get too heavy or be betting 2u a game as a starting point until I have some cushion with this system. Setting it up this way will allow me to have 1u on each game today instead of 2.

Because there is one line for each team I think it is more of a cross 4#s off when you win (two from each team) and add two numbers when there is a loss 1 # for each team. Just split the risk for both lines. 

Any other systems you following DAN? 
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#92
Posted: 11/14/2013 12:55:48 AM
I like this system...very simple.  I took all unders and they all hit! 
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#93
Posted: 11/14/2013 1:43:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

I like this system...very simple.  I took all unders and they all hit! 

Why didn't you take the o5? 


I am really going to grind this system out. I am just trying to figure out which way to shift my numbers when they get above 5#s on a line. Which teams do you shift your labby #s to when its above 5#s on a line? 
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#94
Posted: 11/14/2013 2:16:29 AM
I read a lot today about hockey totals and subsequently had 'unders' on the mind, so I just took all unders tonight.  I almost took the Total Goals Scored U/16 but decided to just stick to the system.  Hind-sight's always 20/20
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rivermonsterz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#95
Posted: 11/14/2013 4:05:03 AM
Thats a good question grind3r!

Todays results 2-1.


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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#96
Posted: 11/14/2013 12:28:02 PM
When I shift numbers, I spread it out to teams that are down to one number of original unit size, have less than 4 numbers of the original unit size and/or 4 numbers of the original unit size. I do not add to any team that has a number higher than the original unit size or one that is beyond 4 numbers in the line. Hope that makes sense.
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#97
Posted: 11/14/2013 6:40:44 PM
Anyone have a break down of winning and losing days? I am curious to the variance of this system. It will be kinda hard to backtest and make a graph for this season based on labby variations. Would definitely be very time consuming based on the labby. martingale be pretty easy to backtest for this season. 
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#98
Posted: 11/14/2013 11:14:19 PM
Anyone have a link to a martingale chase of this? I think it will be super profitable doing like 1/4 of a unit and doing like a six game chase. For example if your unit size was $20 you would chase $5 for each team for six games. Just wish my book allowed me bet that small lol. 

if juice is -125 on average
A) $6.25 to win $5
B) $14.06 to win $11.25
C)$31.64  to win $25.31 
D) $71.19 to win $56.95 ($123.14)
E) $160.18  to win $128.14
F) $360.40  to win $288.32


Again its a lot of risk, but martingale makes it easy and if your cutting your unit size in 1/4 you are actually only losing $643.72 on a six game chase which is 32 regular units. Would have to win 128 series to make up for that loss. I look forward to back testing this in the future. 

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#99
Posted: 11/15/2013 1:07:30 AM
not great today.
2-4-1.
Net profit for the day: -5.48 units
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#100
Posted: 11/15/2013 2:16:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:

Anyone have a link to a martingale chase of this? I think it will be super profitable doing like 1/4 of a unit and doing like a six game chase. For example if your unit size was $20 you would chase $5 for each team for six games. Just wish my book allowed me bet that small lol. 

if juice is -125 on average
A) $6.25 to win $5
B) $14.06 to win $11.25
C)$31.64  to win $25.31 
D) $71.19 to win $56.95 ($123.14)
E) $160.18  to win $128.14
F) $360.40  to win $288.32


Again its a lot of risk, but martingale makes it easy and if your cutting your unit size in 1/4 you are actually only losing $643.72 on a six game chase which is 32 regular units. Would have to win 128 series to make up for that loss. I look forward to back testing this in the future. 


Interested to see the results!
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