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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Totals system
GreenMachine22 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 11/7/2013 9:33:40 PM
...although that doesn't really apply to this type of 'cover-all' strategy.
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#52
Posted: 11/8/2013 1:02:46 AM
Today's results.
6-3-2
Net profit: ~ +4.7 units.

Obviously depending on variances with line prices (and possibly numbers) others may have a different result.

If anyone did have a different result could you please let us all know.

Cheers.
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#53
Posted: 11/8/2013 1:28:04 AM
Definitely a good night....really wanna jump in but wanna see this backtested. Seems like it really could work with the way the labby is set with all the teams.
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#54
Posted: 11/8/2013 11:01:19 AM
Sounds like a concept that would work in MLB too...
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#55
Posted: 11/8/2013 9:22:41 PM
So for the Winnipeg game today, I got the line at 5.0 (heavy juice) as soon as it opened.  I see the line closed at 5.5.
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#56
Posted: 11/8/2013 9:34:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

So for the Winnipeg game today, I got the line at 5.0 (heavy juice) as soon as it opened.  I see the line closed at 5.5.

Depends where you bet. Looks like Vegas was pretty split as some had 5 others 5.5. I honestly didn't even notice that. I had the over 5 at -150.

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#57
Posted: 11/8/2013 9:37:02 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rob3996:

Sounds like a concept that would work in MLB too...

Not sure how it would work in MLB. Hockey seems to be easy since each game is either 5 or 5.5 with the ocassional 6. MLB is all over the map especially based on ballpark and starting pitchers. MLB can go from 6 or less to 11 or more.

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#58
Posted: 11/8/2013 11:57:31 PM
Todays results:
0-3-1 (the push could be a win depending on what you got for the Winnipeg game.
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#59
Posted: 11/9/2013 5:40:10 AM
I just saw a similar thread like this on another forum where they take the alternative 6.0 or 6.5 line total and do a chase/labby for each team. Obviously more juice involved but no team has lost more then 4 and its up WELL over 300 units so far this season.
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#60
Posted: 11/9/2013 1:38:57 PM
Good stuff, another angle to look at is playing the plus side of the line only.
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#61
Posted: 11/11/2013 6:18:32 AM
todays results.
3-3-1.

That 6.0 - 6.5 line sounds interesting. As does taking the overs for everything!

I think I may have missed a day in there, I'll try to record daily results just as a way for everyone to have a look.

Since I have started tracking on the 7th Nov I have -5.31 units.  This number may be slightly out due to line differences and a possibly inaccuracy with my record keeping for Saturdays game due to travel.
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#62
Posted: 11/11/2013 9:21:30 AM
I have played it since Oct 17...

There were 12 winning days and 13 losing days

Record is 79-72-13 and +24.24 units

Of course our lines may be different, but that is the record for me.
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#63
Posted: 11/11/2013 10:41:46 AM
I, as someone else said, saw this at the beginning but wanted a few weeks gone before coming back to it.

I just did a REAL simple backtest from the beginning of the season to Oct 24th and I cleared over 50 lines.  I had lines for every team, but I let no line go over 5 numbers.  Whenever a loss happened on a 5 line team, I took it's share of the loss and added it to a team that has only 2,3,or 4 numbers.  

I didn't do this on the backtest (like I said it was REAL simple) but you could also split part of the loses and add some to other lines, so any one line doesn't get too heavy.

@Louris54...for the Alt PL, how did they play it?  Always under, or as is here...6 (5) play over and 6.5 (5.5) play under?
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#64
Posted: 11/11/2013 10:52:40 AM
Also, when I had 1 number left, I took that and added it to a 2,3,or 4 number line.  I was real free on how I did it.  If one team is doing well while another isn't, let the first team clear the lines.

Dan, why would you stop after 5 line "clears" when there's so much season left?  With the example I did it above, I think I'd stop when all lines are at 5 numbers.
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#65
Posted: 11/11/2013 11:10:19 AM
Buckeye I like your idea of not letting a number go over 5, I might use that. 

You don't have to stop after a team clears 5 I was just looking to avoid a losing streak, but using that 5 number limit I think that would help a lot 
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#66
Posted: 11/11/2013 11:42:06 AM
Somewhere I saw the same for NBA.  Gonna search for that now and see how that's going.
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#67
Posted: 11/11/2013 12:32:33 PM
What they did was the same thing here team wise but theyd play the alternative under 6 or 6.5 line for every game. Very high winning percentage but obviously u gotta deal with some juice. In fact theres no labby but they chase each team to go under the alt under 6/6.5 line up to 5 games. No team has lost more then 4 in a row so far and its up well over 300 units so far. Personally to cut down on juice i like to do 2 team parlays where ill take a under 6.5 game i like, along with a game i think has no shot of going to overtime for a "no overtime" bet....this way youll get even money on your bet. I would chase it for up to 4 games/days
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#68
Posted: 11/11/2013 12:49:04 PM
im playing it too. i have a line for  each team but only 3 games.i take the loss and spread it with the 30 teams its been good so far..im using my book lines ,not covers i have chicaco with 14 as the best and calgary with 6 as the worse
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#69
Posted: 11/11/2013 1:27:02 PM
Cause DeGen is AWESOME on doing formulas for spreadsheets, I was able to do a quick backtest on the 2011-12 season for this.  Mind you that this just for W/L record, not the labby line.

At the 5.5 (and up) line and betting under, it's 473-422, and betting over at 5, it's 146-143.  Being that we don't do straight up but on the labby, I think that's good, but I'm an amatuer with the lines...but it's over 50%.

Gonna do the Alt PL now.
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#70
Posted: 11/11/2013 1:45:42 PM
For the Alt PL, I have 2 sets of numbers, one for all games with PL at 6 and one for 6.5.  Unless, the Alt PL is one more than the regular line, I do not know what the Alt PL is for each game.

Anyway, with the Alt PL set at 6, it's 684/403 betting under....at 6.5 it's 827/403.  Not too bad.

Now, when do the Alt PL's come out?
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#71
Posted: 11/11/2013 2:23:24 PM
U mean the alternative under 6/6.5 total??? Puckline is something totally different. Maybe i misunderstood u.
Anyway the alternative totals dont come out until the morning of the games on 5dimes.
And yeah its a pretty damn high winning %. But like i said with the juice, a losing streak would b scary
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#72
Posted: 11/11/2013 2:47:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by louris54:

U mean the alternative under 6/6.5 total??? Puckline is something totally different. Maybe i misunderstood u.
Anyway the alternative totals dont come out until the morning of the games on 5dimes.
And yeah its a pretty damn high winning %. But like i said with the juice, a losing streak would b scary

Yep, that's what I meant. But what I would do is what I stated in posts #63/64.
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#73
Posted: 11/11/2013 3:01:21 PM
5 years of data:
Year 5.5/Und 5/Ovr Alt@6 Alt@6.5

8/9 561/541 53/32 612/490 740/490
9/10 570/514 53/41 648/468 762/468
10/11 540/468 79/85 676/435 795/435
11/12 429/397 146/143 684/403 827/403
12/13 242/187 111/109 417/234 486/234
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#74
Posted: 11/11/2013 4:46:26 PM
Yeah those are sick numbers...nice job buckeye. Im thinking maybe doing a 3-4 game chase for a team to go under the alt 6/6.5 line might be profitable. Havent gotten to all the teams yet but i just looked at most of the teams daily game totals and no one has gone over the 6/6.5 more then 2 games in a row. Obviously losing a chase would be a big chunk of units since each game has an average of -200 or so on the line BUT youd be racking up units like crazy if you're playing every teams games. Is there any way to backtest past years in an fast efficient way buckeye?
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#75
Posted: 11/11/2013 4:48:10 PM
Also for the alt under 6 lines are u not including pushes in the record?
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