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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Totals system
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#1
Posted: 10/16/2013 10:52:24 PM

I've been trying to find a good totals system for the NHL and have read through many of the tried systems on here and elsewhere. I think I may have come up with one that can work.

The premise is simple: Run a standard labby line of 4 numbers per team, each number being 1/2 unit (a $10 better would be 5-5-5-5). For each NHL game you bet the Over if the line is 5 and bet the Under if the line is 5.5 or higher. You combine the 2 outside labby line numbers from the two teams playing. So if you are just starting the bet would be to win $20 if your betting units are $10. If you lose, you add a number to each team's line. In the above example if the line was -120 and you lost $24 trying to win $20, you'd add $12 to the end of each losing teams labby line (5-5-5-5-12) The next bet for that team would be to win $17, plus whatever their opponent is at on their labby line. When the line clears, start again for that team.

I haven't done too much official backtesting so I can't provide numbers, but a quick look at the last 2 years seemed pretty good. I think one team got up to 9 or 10 numbers but it eventually cleared.

I'm personally using 1/2 of the numbers I used above just to test it out and my results are really good. I started on October 9 and including the NYR/Wash game I'm at +48.43 units. Will probably lose the Cgy/Ana under of 5.5 since it's 3 goals in the 1st period. Even if that loses it will be 46.43 units in 8 days. It would be hard to think of that pace continuing but I thought I'd share in case someone wanted to try it out.  

 

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hansivonmueller
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#2
Posted: 10/17/2013 2:48:36 AM
Flames game came out ok.
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#3
Posted: 10/17/2013 7:17:09 AM
Yes it did. 50.43 units in 8 days. Too bad I'll be unable to bet until Tuesday due to travel. 
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#4
Posted: 10/17/2013 8:39:46 AM
So, you're betting the total on EVERY game?
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hansivonmueller
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#5
Posted: 10/17/2013 2:50:49 PM
Lots of games tonight. I'll give this a go. I may do a different labby system, but will stick with the fundamentals. Now that I'm on this I hope it's not the kiss of death. Have a safe and wonderful time at your daughters wedding. By the way, I hope she's a stats major with an interest in sports.






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#6
Posted: 10/17/2013 6:43:25 PM
Hansivon
What labby style are you considering. The way Dan has it set up can be very profitable, but realistically I see the lines getting out of control real quickly.

I recommend an ultra conservative line in relation to bankroll

Continued success Dan, can't deny those extreme profits you've pulled in!
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#7
Posted: 10/18/2013 5:12:50 PM
great start, made little over 4 units only 2 games tonight.
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hansivonmueller
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#8
Posted: 10/18/2013 8:39:04 PM
Oilcountry99,
I'm shaving units off the losers and adding them to the winners for the next round. Trying to avoid a big  number on the chase.  Just an experiment at this stage and very conservative. I hope Dan has continued success.
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#9
Posted: 10/18/2013 9:20:46 PM
So, basically, the goal here is to just do this over and over again, for each team, the entire season?  I'm a bit confused by this.  Up until a few weeks ago, I'd never even heard of a labby line.  I'm not understanding why there are 4 numbers, and not 2, for each team.  It might be best for me to just stay away from this.
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#10
Posted: 10/19/2013 6:02:06 AM
So I am also new to this. playing with $4 units just to get into the swing of things.
Today: STL/WPG i ran 1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-1.  this loses so....
I am now looking at a loss of 4.82, or 2.41 per team. 
So does this look correct for the next progression.
WPG: 1-1-1-1-2.41
STL: 1-1-1-1-2.41.
So next time these teams play i will be trying to earn 4.41 from each of these teams?
Let say they lose again for example, chasing WPG and i outlayed 4 to make 3.41, my next line would look like this?
WPG: 1-1-1-1-2.41-2 ; would i be trying to make $3 in the next match off WPG?
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#11
Posted: 10/19/2013 8:20:43 AM
WPG next game would be to win 5.41 (1+2.41 from the WPG plus 1+1 from the opponents line, assuming it is their first game).

If WPG looses again you would add half of what you lost to the end of the line for each team.
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#12
Posted: 10/20/2013 5:19:11 AM
Thanks Bart. This very interesting this system. Will be playing along as much as possible with tiny units and let you know how it goes.
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#13
Posted: 10/22/2013 2:22:14 AM
So another question.
I do not know too much about hockey, but I have seen the lines change half a goal sometimes.
Thinking about this, is it best to wait until just before the game to place your wagers, or should they be placed according to the opening line?

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#14
Posted: 10/22/2013 2:25:36 AM
Also if anybody is wondering, I have profited about 8 units in 3 days.
I like this alot! .... however am wary it crash at any moment so will continue to play small.
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#15
Posted: 10/22/2013 1:35:38 PM

Sorry guys, I was unable to post or follow too much due to travel. Because I missed so many games, I'm banking my previous winnings and starting each with team with full lines. Someone mentioned why 4 numbers and not 2. Really no answer for that one, just my preference. Since I'm splitting the numbers to a half unit each I didn't want to have the situation where I lose game one making it 3 numbers, then after a win left with just a half unit bet.

yes Rivermonsterz, play small unit size on this system. Let's grind out some decent profits. I do expect some longer lines at some point and you can be creative with those losses. Split to a second line if need be for a specific team or even transfer a little bit to other teams to make the bets smaller. Lots of flexibility with the labby lines.

I haven't seen the totals lines change too much. I tend to bet closer to gametime if possible so I really don't watch the lines all day.

Not sure how this should be tracked and posted going forward if it all. Maybe we just play it according to how I described in post 1 and just comment on here about how we are doing. I'm +50.43 units for the time of Oct 9 - Oct 16. Starting up again today with clean, 4 number labby lines of 1/2 unit for each team. My original thought was to have each team clear 3 teams which would be 6 units per team for a total of 180 units. I'll post my totals and see if we can make some decent profits!

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#16
Posted: 10/22/2013 2:27:29 PM
would you mind posting plays?, cause i'm not from america, and i don't quite understand some of the rules, due to the slang used in describing the rules but i really looks like a promising system.. 
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#17
Posted: 10/22/2013 3:38:53 PM
I love this system. Give you lots of action each and everyday. I am riding with ya on this system starting tonight. Let's do this!
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#18
Posted: 10/22/2013 3:45:52 PM
Dan,
Nice to see you back, hope the wedding was a great success. The totals have been doing well. What amazes me is the outcomes, there are games where I'm thinking there is no way this game is going over only to be surprised at the end and vice versa. So I gave up speculating. The betting rules are pretty straight forward so I don't see any need to post the plays. Labby line management seems to be the crucial element.  If you tweak your labby line in any way, I would be interested in hearing about it. I was also curious about tapering off at the end of the season and your thoughts on that.Cheers

GregTek,
If Dan doesn't see your post the rules are as about as simple as it gets. If the game total is @ 5.5 you bet under 5.5, if the game total is @ 5.0, bet over 5.0. Do this for all the games and use a labby line to manage your wagers. Google labby line if you don't know what it is.  Good luck.
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#19
Posted: 10/22/2013 4:05:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hansivonmueller:

Dan,
Nice to see you back, hope the wedding was a great success. The totals have been doing well. What amazes me is the outcomes, there are games where I'm thinking there is no way this game is going over only to be surprised at the end and vice versa. So I gave up speculating. The betting rules are pretty straight forward so I don't see any need to post the plays. Labby line management seems to be the crucial element.  If you tweak your labby line in any way, I would be interested in hearing about it. I was also curious about tapering off at the end of the season and your thoughts on that.Cheers

GregTek,
If Dan doesn't see your post the rules are as about as simple as it gets. If the game total is @ 5.5 you bet under 5.5, if the game total is @ 5.0, bet over 5.0. Do this for all the games and use a labby line to manage your wagers. Google labby line if you don't know what it is.  Good luck.

The wedding was fantastic, I'm exhausted. I'm using low amounts for my labby numbers since this isn't a proven system and I want to test it out a bit. I agree that we will taper off toward the end of the season. But for now, let's see where this takes us. Our numbers might be off a bit due to different lines and some rounding but it should be close enough.

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#20
Posted: 10/22/2013 11:44:13 PM
Hey Dan, would how do you think this work out by taking the favourite o/u?
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#21
Posted: 10/23/2013 12:26:14 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Hey Dan, would how do you think this work out by taking the favourite o/u?

I don't know, never tested it.

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#22
Posted: 10/23/2013 12:43:08 AM

Not a good first night back, went 1-6 with a push, -11.9 units. To date, +38.53 units. Only 2 games Wednesday

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#23
Posted: 10/23/2013 4:42:21 PM
Dan,
Here's some numbers for you. I believe the average goals/game for the league is 5.49. Teams that have not gone over 5.0 consistently are 
Buf (2 out of 10), Bos (0 -10),Phi (1-8), Col (4-9), Min (2-10), Nas (2-10), Det (4-10), LAK (4-10), ClB (2-9), Mon (3-9). Last night both O 5 plays lost and all the teams involved are under the 5.49 average. The over plays involved high scoring teams except the one that won. Hawks an under team and Panthers a low range over team. I'm thinking of playing the O 5 only if a high scoring team is involved and the U5.5 if a high scoring and low scoring team are involved. If the books make an error and have two low scoring teams U5.5 I will jump on that.  I see that as unlikely though. 

Tonight, Sens are above the average playing a below the average Wings. The total is 5.5 this is the type of play I'm following to see how consistent the results are going under the 5.5.

The Bos-Buf game involves two under teams, so it will be interesting to see that result also.

I'm going to track this for a while and see how consistent or inconsistent it is.  For now I don't think the Under teams are consistently covering the O 5. I will need to further backtrack to see all the the results.
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#24
Posted: 10/23/2013 4:56:44 PM
My mistake, both O 5 plays did not lose, NJ-Clb was a push. I'm starting to think that there has been more pushes than wins or losses for the O 5.0.
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#25
Posted: 10/23/2013 8:29:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hansivonmueller:

Dan,
Here's some numbers for you. I believe the average goals/game for the league is 5.49. Teams that have not gone over 5.0 consistently are 
Buf (2 out of 10), Bos (0 -10),Phi (1-8), Col (4-9), Min (2-10), Nas (2-10), Det (4-10), LAK (4-10), ClB (2-9), Mon (3-9). Last night both O 5 plays lost and all the teams involved are under the 5.49 average. The over plays involved high scoring teams except the one that won. Hawks an under team and Panthers a low range over team. I'm thinking of playing the O 5 only if a high scoring team is involved and the U5.5 if a high scoring and low scoring team are involved. If the books make an error and have two low scoring teams U5.5 I will jump on that.  I see that as unlikely though. 

Tonight, Sens are above the average playing a below the average Wings. The total is 5.5 this is the type of play I'm following to see how consistent the results are going under the 5.5.

The Bos-Buf game involves two under teams, so it will be interesting to see that result also.

I'm going to track this for a while and see how consistent or inconsistent it is.  For now I don't think the Under teams are consistently covering the O 5. I will need to further backtrack to see all the the results.

Interesting stuff, good work. Let's track this  alittle bit and see if we need some filters.

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