Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2013-14

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2013-14
iamnomad PM iamnomad
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Posted: 10/6/2013 8:55:22 AM
thank you sir!
McVigorish PM McVigorish
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Posted: 10/8/2013 10:02:13 AM
Rolling with the Canucks tonight?  I'm thinking about playing the -1 PL.  
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/8/2013 12:03:16 PM

We have Van on the A game today. Nashville is not going to qualify.

Also, I'm going to stop posting the labby lines and units. Everyone bets differently and I'll let everyone track their own.

Regular system:

Record 4-0

A: 4-0

B

C

Double dip:

Record 1-0

A: 1-0

B

C

dracoe46 PM dracoe46
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Posted: 10/8/2013 12:34:55 PM
thanks Danrules24 you sir are awesome
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mills2626 PM mills2626
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Posted: 10/9/2013 12:50:01 AM
Make it 5-0!!
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/9/2013 1:03:53 AM

Van wins on the A game. Only a 3 game homestand so no double dip.

The next regular system possibilities are Thursday 10/10 with ANA (5), TB (7), Wash(5) and Friday 10/11 with Car (6) and Wpg (6).

On the double dip I doubt STL will qualify against Chicago on Wed. I'm showing -120 now, but we'll check it out.

Regular system:

Record 5-0

A: 5-0

B

C

Double dip:

Record 1-0

A: 1-0

B

C

System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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Posted: 10/9/2013 3:19:55 AM
STL is a possible double dip again, if odds go to -130 correct? 
rivermonsterz PM rivermonsterz
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Posted: 10/9/2013 3:41:02 AM
correct, they still have 3 home games to play.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/9/2013 12:19:39 PM

STL is not going to qualify for the double dip. I have them at -120, can't see it going to -130 against Chicago. Their double dip is done.

Hopefully we'll get 3 plays Thursday on the regular system.

 

lilmojo021 PM lilmojo021
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Posted: 10/9/2013 3:36:37 PM
Dan,
I have a few questions as I am new to your system and thread.  
1.  In the description of the system on page #1,  I understand rolling over units to the next game and splitting the cost with 2 other bets, but what im getting confused with the 2 columns.  For example:

Original bet in this case was $165 to win $100:

G1 :    50-50

G2 :    50-50

G3 :    50-50

Always cross off your wins first, then bring in your losses.  In our example.  We would cross off our two wins and then bring back in our base bet ($100).  I take half of a Game 1 loss and place it at the end of line 1 and half at the end of line 2.

50-133     (the 50 plus 83 which is half our loss)

50-133

50-50

So for game 2 you would play to win 50+133 = $183.

I understand the math, but where do we carry the split bet over to?  

Another question is a "series" equals a total of 3 games correct?  in this example it would be g 1, g2, g3?  if we carried the balance of a loss and split between 2 games, would we split it between g2 of series 1 and g1 of series 2?  how would this look if we had 4 games and multiple losers.  

Sorry if this is confusing ...I have read the full thread and would like some clarification.  Thanks

lilmojo021 PM lilmojo021
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Posted: 10/9/2013 3:43:01 PM
Dan, I somewhat think I have figured it out now.  I would still appreciate a response if possible and If you could since I am just joining the group post an updated list of A, B, and C plays.  Thanks.  If I followed correctly it looks as if all plays have been cleared and There will be new sets of A plays on Thursday?  Thanks again
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/9/2013 4:32:53 PM

lilmojo, In your example you broke it down correctly after that loss. The next B game play would be to win $183. Say that line was -200, we'd drop $366 on that game with a loss, so B line would change to 50 - 316 and the C game would go to 50 - 233.

The next time you have an A game the bet would be 50 - 133 as you show. If you have two teams on an A game you can split this to 50 - 67 for each. I hope that helps.

Not sure I understand your other question. If you are asking about what to do after a 3 game loss, what I would do is add another line for the last game instead of transfering any of that game 3 loss to game 1 or 2 of another series. Example using the numbers above. If game 3 was -200 and we are betting $566 to win $288 (50 - 233) and that game lost instead of making the line 50 - 799, you can add another line or 2 under game 3 (C game) to look like:

  • 50 - 400
  • 50 - 400

or

  • 50 - 200
  • 50 - 200
  • 50 - 200
  • 50 - 200

There really is no right or wrong way to do this. Just depends on what you are comfortable betting. Some do strict Martingale and if they suffer a 3 game loss either just move on or try to get it back over the next few series by increasing the bet a bit.

 

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/9/2013 4:34:41 PM

Also since every game has won on the A game, we haven't had to deal with this yet.

 

BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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Posted: 10/9/2013 10:46:24 PM
For those who need help with Aggressive Lab, go to this thread.  The Rizz explains it perfectly.  I also bumped it in the index.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100871088

 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/9/2013 11:28:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

For those who need help with Aggressive Lab, go to this thread.  The Rizz explains it perfectly.  I also bumped it in the index.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100871088

 

Thanks Buckeye.

hi2ak PM hi2ak
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Posted: 10/10/2013 8:24:14 AM
New to this thread..what classifies as a double dip?
flwareagle PM flwareagle
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Posted: 10/10/2013 8:39:44 AM
I have a question. If a team has a 5 game home stand and the first game they are a -120 favorite, I know there is not a play. However, if they are a -150 favorite in the second game, do we then chase games 2-4 or does the -130+ have to be on the first game of the home stand only?
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Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/10/2013 12:23:21 PM

If a team does not qualify for the FIRST game of the homestand the remaining games do not matter, it is a no play for games 2-????.

To qualify for a double dip, a team must first qualify for and win a game on the regular chase. After that win, if they have at least 3 games left on the homestand we look at that next game. If they qualify at -130 or higher odds it triggers a double dip play. If not -130, no double dip no matter how many games they have left, they would be done. Basically we treat the double dip with the same rules as the regular system. As long as there is at least 3 games left we start the qualifying process and chase anew.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/10/2013 12:26:37 PM

Thursday 10/10:  ANA (5), TB (7), Wash(5) all qualify and are A game plays today. With 5, 7, 5 games we have some double dip opportunities if they clear quickly.

Regular system:

Record 5-0

A: 5-0

B

C

Double dip:

Record 1-0

A: 1-0

B

C

lilmojo021 PM lilmojo021
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Posted: 10/10/2013 1:49:15 PM
What are your thoughts on playing the reg line at something like -120 in place of ML at -165?  I have never tracked NHL closely and would be interested in your opinion.  would it pay off to reduce the risk here?  thanks in advance!
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/10/2013 2:44:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by lilmojo021:

What are your thoughts on playing the reg line at something like -120 in place of ML at -165?  I have never tracked NHL closely and would be interested in your opinion.  would it pay off to reduce the risk here?  thanks in advance!

I personally play the ML. English Gent had a system that bet both the reg line and the ML on the top favorite each day and the reg line ran into a rather bad streak. I was surprised how many times the team won in OT/SO. Since I'm betting multiple systems, I keep my betting units relatively low for each one, so a -165 line isn't too bad at all. I just do a little line shopping here in Vegas and go with the system.

Do what you are comfortable with, but I'd hate to lose a reg bet only to see that team win in OT. Just win baby!

System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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Posted: 10/10/2013 10:02:11 PM
You should play ML for the whole game and NOT regulation line. Reason why is answered by the overtime juice. It ranges between -300 to -400. Which means 20-25% of the games will go into overtime, making you lose quit a bit more bets. I would advise getting real use to betting -200 or higher on a regular basis with hockey. Once you establish a cushion of profit, you will worry less about juice.
hi2ak PM hi2ak
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Posted: 10/10/2013 10:13:13 PM
Thanks Dan. Im on board! Heres to a profitable year!
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/11/2013 1:12:13 AM

Thursday 10/10 RESULTS: ANA (5) and TB (7) win on the A game. Wash(5) loses on A game and goes to B game on Saturday.

Wpg and Carolina don't look like they will qualify Firday on the regular system. Will update as needed.

For the double dip - ANA has 4 games left starting Sunday. TB has 6 games left but I doubt they qualify on Saturday against Pitt.

Regular system:

Record 7-0

A: 7-1

B

C

Double dip:

Record 1-0

A: 1-0

B

C

VegasVixen PM VegasVixen
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Posted: 10/11/2013 11:36:40 AM

Spreadsheet has one error:

For EDMOMTON you have a series beginning 3/1 vs CAL, the homestand actually starts 2/27 v MIN, CAL is gm 2...

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