Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2013-14

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2013-14
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#401
Posted: 12/10/2013 12:48:37 AM

Monday results: Anaheim wins on regular chase A game and Vancouver wins double dip A. Both are done.

Tuesday: NYR C game. Winnipeg will not qualify

Regular system:

Record 29-4

A: 25-9

B: 3-6

C: 1-4 (NYR pending)

Double dip:

Record 16-0

A: 11-5

B: 4-1

C: 1-0

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#402
Posted: 12/10/2013 10:13:07 PM

Tuesday results: NYR lose on the C game. They are a bad team. Of course they still have 6 more games left on this homestand and will probbaly win the next two against Columbus and Clagary, but they are not official plays.

5 losses already, not good. Playing just the A games is looking like a good move.

No other games until Thursday.

Regular system:

Record 29-5

A: 25-9

B: 3-6

C: 1-5

Double dip:

Record 16-0

A: 11-5

B: 4-1

C: 1-0

trychome PM trychome
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quote#403
Posted: 12/10/2013 10:41:16 PM
this may be a record low for series losses.  i may chase again and treat the next games as a new homestand.
TheBeefMan PM TheBeefMan
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quote#404
Posted: 12/10/2013 10:49:40 PM
Wow. I feel bad for anyone who has played this as a straight Martingale.
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System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#405
Posted: 12/12/2013 1:23:31 AM
There was an google link on here that shared possible plays coming up. Anyone remember what page # that was on? Had to backdate my computer and lost some book marks in the process. 
System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#406
Posted: 12/12/2013 1:34:18 AM
I found it on post #13 nvm... I was looking for a blue highlight link so i passed over it several times. 
hardyvault PM hardyvault
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quote#407
Posted: 12/12/2013 1:06:59 PM
Hey Dan, since we basically lost the data from last season's lock-out shortened year, and the lousy performance of this system this season (I like this system btw) why not only play the double dip system and double up the unit bet?

Continued success, you're a stud at finding trends, H
BigTenWatto PM BigTenWatto
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quote#408
Posted: 12/12/2013 1:13:19 PM
Pretty sure its just Ottawa tonight.

Dan, what are the odds you have figured out what the bank balance would be if we just played A games and double dip A games?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#409
Posted: 12/12/2013 2:28:36 PM
Sorry guys I'm on the road today. Yes I think it is just Ottawa today on the A game. I'll answer the other questions later tonight.
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Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#410
Posted: 12/12/2013 8:55:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hardyvault:

Hey Dan, since we basically lost the data from last season's lock-out shortened year, and the lousy performance of this system this season (I like this system btw) why not only play the double dip system and double up the unit bet?

Continued success, you're a stud at finding trends, H

The double dip does not have too much of a history behind it, so it's still kind of unproven as far as systems go. I tend to maybe add a little bit to the double dip plays if I like the matchups for the next couple of games.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#411
Posted: 12/12/2013 9:00:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Pretty sure its just Ottawa tonight.

Dan, what are the odds you have figured out what the bank balance would be if we just played A games and double dip A games?

I have not figured that out. Shouldn't be too hard to figure. I'll take a look when I get a little time.

System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#412
Posted: 12/12/2013 10:09:31 PM
I think in general whether is a double dip or regular A game, flat betting them for 1u or 2u is going to cost you money long run. Yes this is an amazing season with A bets hitting at a very high profitable rate, even when flat betting, but doing the labby as Dan is doing is by far the most profitable way thus far. 

If you have a stagnant bankroll and are trying to maximize your profits use 1% of your bankroll or 2% of your bankroll for each new line instead of doing a standard unit size and just let the labby do the work for you. 

I for one keep a standard unit size because I work full time and do not have a bankroll set aside for sports, just collect from my bookie each week and that money just goes right in the bank with the other money. It is really all a matter of comfort for each individual whether they are doing this to make a little extra money or to actually make it a professional investment. 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#413
Posted: 12/12/2013 10:30:03 PM

Thursday results: Ottawa wins on the A game and are done. Nash did not qualify.

Next plays are Saturday (Det, NJ, Buff)

Regular system:

Record 30-5

A: 26-9

B: 3-6

C: 1-5

Double dip:

Record 16-0

A: 11-5

B: 4-1

C: 1-0

System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#414
Posted: 12/14/2013 2:04:58 AM
Nothing will qualify
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#415
Posted: 12/14/2013 11:00:38 AM
Correct, none of the 3 qualify for today.  
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#416
Posted: 12/14/2013 8:11:44 PM
No possible plays until Tuesday (Toronto and LA).
System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#417
Posted: 12/15/2013 2:52:43 AM
Thanks Dan
System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#418
Posted: 12/17/2013 2:59:10 AM
TOR will be a  close call depending if you play -130 or -145 as a play. FLA is on quite a run winning 5 of last 6 games only losing to CHI. LA will definitely be a play -221 right now vs edm. 

I'll wait for your official posting on TOR dan. I am surprised they are going to qualify given losing streak vs winning streak. 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#419
Posted: 12/17/2013 4:16:32 PM
LA is a play. I'm showing Toronto at -125 to -135 depending on where you bet. Given the spread of lines, I'm not making this an official play. That being said I will be betting to win one unit on this game only, not chasing. I show them winning almost 62% of the time, so decent value at -125 to -135.
System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#420
Posted: 12/18/2013 12:04:16 AM
Dan, Did you ever share the system you are running on the side based on percentages you have? I know you posted it earlier in the season that you were doing some side plays, but idk if you are running another thread with those or not. 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#421
Posted: 12/18/2013 12:57:38 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:

Dan, Did you ever share the system you are running on the side based on percentages you have? I know you posted it earlier in the season that you were doing some side plays, but idk if you are running another thread with those or not. 

No I haven't posted any of those plays. Still just testing. The record is currently at 102-68 for NHL which includes ML, PL and totals. I'll need to really dig into the numbers and see what is working best and what isn't. I've taken dogs because there was value when comparing the line versus predicted win% and also the -1.5 PL for +odds. So 60% win % on those is pretty good, but wouldn't be as good for those somewhat heavy ML odds. I'm up on those plays but nothing to brag about.

System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#422
Posted: 12/18/2013 1:01:44 AM
Ive been following top nhl favorite these past two weeks, a little less; currently 8-1 they are doing wonderful. Although I did manage to miss sharks at -300 favorite this past week so lucky there. Just running a labby over 3 lines with it. I did some testing using 1 line and it gets ugly playing ML. I will play PL at -300 or more ML -299 or less. Some days are a little tricky like today for example, LA was early biggest favorite, but closing lines indicate BOS. I actually took both cause they were both -210 on covers -212 my book for a while. 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#423
Posted: 12/18/2013 1:03:10 AM

Tuesday results: LA wins on the A game and have a chance at double dip Thursday but its against SJ.

No plays Wednesday. Possible play Thursday with Ottawa (vs Fla), Friday with Chicago.

Regular system:

Record 31-5

A: 27-9

B: 3-6

C: 1-5

Double dip:

Record 16-0

A: 11-5

B: 4-1

C: 1-0

System_Grind3r PM System_Grind3r
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quote#424
Posted: 12/19/2013 2:15:50 AM
Going to have to wait a little bit on OTT. Usually try and get my bets in night before but I see -134 on covers right now. FLA is on some what of a hot streak as well... might stick to the traditional -145 for tomorrow. 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#425
Posted: 12/19/2013 4:18:39 PM

Thursday: Ottawa is a play. I show them at -135 or -140 at most places. I'm personally only playing it for the A game as I do not like the B and C matchups. My simulator shows them winning 64% of the time in this game. Play at your own risk, I'm only going 1 unit.

LA does not qualify for the double dip and are done 

Regular system:

Record 31-5

A: 27-9

B: 3-6

C: 1-5

Double dip:

Record 16-0

A: 11-5

B: 4-1

C: 1-0

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