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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Simple NFL System
OnTheBlackSports send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/3/2013 10:23:28 PM
If you go back over the past five years and chase an over for every team in the NFL only 3 streaks have gone longer than four games.  One ended on game 5 the other 2 on game 6.  

Using a bet risk progression of 1.1, 2.31, 4.85, 10.19, 21.39, and 30 units you'd be up 133 units over those past 5 seasons.

I'll be posting the results after each week.  
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#2
Posted: 9/4/2013 10:09:20 AM
This is only to start the season, right? 
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#3
Posted: 9/4/2013 10:29:01 AM
Correct.
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#4
Posted: 9/4/2013 10:09:47 PM
Be careful; 
6 game chase in the NFL is a long time. Throw in a bye week and the book will have your money tied up for almost 2 months. 
Plus, one loss and you will have to go perfect over the next 3 years to be in the black again. 

Do you have a breakdown of winners per game per year? It may be better to accept a couple losses at a lower risk with a 3 or 4 game chase. 
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#5
Posted: 9/5/2013 7:08:46 AM
First of all your math is slightly flawed as with the bet progression above you would lose 69 units if all six games lose, but you would also win the other 31 that year so the loss would be 38 units or about a years worth of units.  

It is a bit aggressive, but going a traditional route and trying to pick 10 games a weekend and hitting at an amazing 70% rate would leave you up only 20 units over the same time period.

A plays 86-74
B plays 41-33
C plays 26-7
D plays 4-3
E plays 1-2
F plays 2-0
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#6
Posted: 9/5/2013 3:46:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by OnTheBlackSports:

First of all your math is slightly flawed as with the bet progression above you would lose 69 units if all six games lose, but you would also win the other 31 that year so the loss would be 38 units or about a years worth of units.  

It is a bit aggressive, but going a traditional route and trying to pick 10 games a weekend and hitting at an amazing 70% rate would leave you up only 20 units over the same time period.

A plays 86-74
B plays 41-33
C plays 26-7
D plays 4-3
E plays 1-2
F plays 2-0

If you pick 70% betting 10 games just 1 weekend a year for 5 years your up 18.5 units for 5 years. 10 games all 17 weeks for 5 years would put you up 314.5 units for 5 years.
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#7
Posted: 9/5/2013 4:23:24 PM
Jeff what's your point? My point is that you are able to make more with this type of a chase so the risk is worth it over the same time period.
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#8
Posted: 9/5/2013 4:38:35 PM
I like the over tonight, and the idea of betting less teams. Then i would jump in on the C bets we didn't play. Just a thought, C round proved well.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#9
Posted: 9/5/2013 4:58:43 PM
Why not just make it a 4 game chase? Over that 5 year period you we'd still be up 105 units. Personally I dont think that is enough data to formulate a system since its only 160 games. That one years worth the data in baseball and nobody in their right mind would play a 6 game chase with one years worth of data in baseball. If this held up for let's say 15 years a think you might have something. This is just my opinion of course. Good luck though. 

Let's all win

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#10
Posted: 9/5/2013 5:35:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by OnTheBlackSports:

First of all your math is slightly flawed as with the bet progression above you would lose 69 units if all six games lose, but you would also win the other 31 that year so the loss would be 38 units or about a years worth of units.  

It is a bit aggressive, but going a traditional route and trying to pick 10 games a weekend and hitting at an amazing 70% rate would leave you up only 20 units over the same time period.

A plays 86-74
B plays 41-33
C plays 26-7
D plays 4-3
E plays 1-2
F plays 2-0

You are right, i stand corrected. 
However, if you take away the 2011-12 year, where A games went 26-6, you are left with 60-68. 
Have you played this system the past couple years? 

I don't mean to be a buzzkill, just be careful, that's all. 
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#11
Posted: 9/5/2013 6:12:49 PM

The rule changes in NFL have a big influence on the game totals year to year.  It used to be rare to have a total over 50, this year there are 3 in week 1.

Bottom line is the results.

Thanks OTBS.

Good Luck to all.

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#12
Posted: 9/12/2013 11:34:18 AM
Week 1 ended up being way up and down but ended up with an 8-8 split.  

-1.6 units after week one, but the majority of this system starts coming through in the next 3 weeks.

Plays for week 2 listed below.

New England vs NY Jets - 4.2 units
Cleveland vs Baltimore - 2.1 units
Tennessee vs Houston - 2.1 units
Miami vs Indianapolis - 4.2 units
Carolina vs. Buffalo - 4.2 units
St. Louis vs Atlanta - 2.1 units
Dallas vs. Kansas City - 2.1 units
New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay - 4.2 units
Jacksonville vs Oakland - 4.2 units
San Francisco vs Seattle - 2.1 units
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati - 2.1 units
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#13
Posted: 9/24/2013 11:07:36 PM
Teams left after week 3:

New England
Tampa Bay
New Orleans
Kansas City


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#14
Posted: 10/6/2013 12:20:14 AM
Teams left after week 4:

Tampa Bay - Bye 
Kansas City vs Tennessee
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#15
Posted: 10/7/2013 9:50:55 PM
One team left for the year.

Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay 
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#16
Posted: 10/7/2013 10:15:50 PM
Yep.  I'm there with you.    I will be combining this with a couple huge money line plays to help offset the risk some.   But looks good right now!!
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#17
Posted: 10/8/2013 1:10:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by OnTheBlackSports:

One team left for the year.

Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay 

Unit size for this bet good sir? thanks
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#18
Posted: 10/8/2013 11:15:38 PM
The bet would be risking 21.39 units or bet to win 19.44 units.
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#19
Posted: 10/9/2013 4:24:31 AM
This is bad news.  I like the under for Phi/TB.  TB has scored very, very few points weeks 1-5.  Phi can put up points, but TB knows the only way they can win is with solid def.  And despite a poor win/loss record they have been pretty stingy on defense.

GL on the play.  Is this the final play of the 6 game chase?

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#20
Posted: 10/9/2013 9:57:03 AM
Tampa had a bye last week so this would be game 5 in the chase.
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#21
Posted: 10/9/2013 4:36:29 PM
Opening o/u line, or do you wait until just before the game starts?  Right now I see 45.5 for this game 5.
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#22
Posted: 10/10/2013 12:15:06 AM
All back testing has been done against closing lines.  We of course would try to get the best number available, but line moves are typically pretty hard to predict
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#23
Posted: 10/13/2013 4:21:13 PM
Nice to get this system closed out up 32 units. The same type of thing works for the NBA.  We'll start a thread on that in few weeks.  Add us as a friend or send a PM if you have other questions.
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#24
Posted: 10/13/2013 4:25:06 PM
Congrats. 
6 game chases are not for me, but good to see a profitable year. 

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#25
Posted: 10/21/2013 6:12:04 PM
I nailed the last play...thx OTBS! Solid system
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