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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL picks
dplewis34 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/25/2013 11:24:48 AM
Hi everybody. I have developed 11 new systems that I will post in this thread. All systems are a 3 games chase and you either bet the spread or moneyline (which ever is better). I have done 28 years worth of back testing on all systems. I will not post how to make the picks in each system because I am trying to sell this to someone, trying to get my name out there. I understand if you don't want to follow or if you have doubts. Fill free to follow and good luck to everyone.
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#2
Posted: 8/25/2013 11:33:20 AM
System 1: 391-23 A: 258-156 B: 104-52 C: 29-23
System 2: 130-11 A: 84-57 B: 26-31 C: 20-11
System 3: 167-10 A: 109-68 B: 39-29 C: 19-10
System 4: 272-8 A: 208-72 B: 51-21 C: 13-8
System 5: 115-6 A: 70-51 B: 34-17 C: 11-6
System 6: 118-3 A: 92-29 B: 20-9 C: 6-3
System 7: 82-4 A: 52-34 B: 21-13 C: 9-4
System 8: 81-5 A: 57-29 B: 16-13 C 8-5
System 9: 1023-77 A: Haven't completed yet
System 10: 1031-69 A: Haven't completed yet
System 11: 188-5 A: 125-68 B: 45-23 C: 18-5

Average total profit per year is 42 units
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#3
Posted: 8/25/2013 11:46:13 AM
New system completed. This is a 6 game chase so its a little risky but the wins are there. Total record since 1985 is 351-1 with a total average profit per year of 9.5 units. This will be system 12. Dont have any A,B,C,D,E,F stats yet, hopefully soon.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#4
Posted: 8/25/2013 12:28:35 PM
Is the 42 units for all systems combined? 
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#5
Posted: 8/25/2013 1:10:05 PM
All systems except system 12. Systems 1-12 will average about 52 units per year.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#6
Posted: 8/25/2013 2:10:22 PM
Is each system individually going to ave 52 units a year? None of the units made make sense as there is only -110 juice. A 3 game loss is just over 7 units. You said you are  betting spreads or money line which ever is better. If better means moneywise then laying or taking points is the way to go. If better means spread wise then ML is the way to go. Can you clarify better what your doing please.
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#7
Posted: 8/25/2013 3:42:23 PM
Sorry about that, I should have clarified better. Total of 52 units all together, not each system. On the picks it is better spread wise. Some systems are mainly money line bets and others are mainly spread bets.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#8
Posted: 8/25/2013 4:15:59 PM
Well good luck to you on your picks, in my personal opinion the  systems don't create enough value to be sellable, in other words not enough units returned per system. I'm curious to how this pans out for you.

The Hat
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#9
Posted: 8/25/2013 4:55:43 PM
Thanks for the input. Hopefully I prove you wrong :)
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#10
Posted: 8/25/2013 5:07:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dplewis34:

Thanks for the input. Hopefully I prove you wrong :)

I'm adding you as a friend please accept my request. I want to ask you a couple of questions if you dont mind.

The Hat
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#11
Posted: 8/25/2013 6:44:18 PM
Which systems are ATS?
The A game stats are great. You may be better off betting A games only on a labby line.
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#12
Posted: 8/25/2013 8:01:43 PM
I look forward to seeing your plays...
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#13
Posted: 8/27/2013 1:50:16 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bart_:

Which systems are ATS?
The A game stats are great. You may be better off betting A games only on a labby line.

 

What in the world is a labby line?

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#14
Posted: 9/3/2013 4:06:46 PM
Week 1 bets

System 11:
Minnesota +4.5 (A bet)
Chicago ML (A bet)
Cincinnati +3 (A bet)
Green Bay +4.5 (A bet)
San Francisco ML (A bet)
Seattle ML (A bet)
Indianapolis ML (A bet)
New England ML (A bet)
Washington ML (A bet)
Houston ML (A bet)

System 12:
New England ML (A bet)
Buffalo +9.5 (A bet)
Minnesota +4.5 (A bet)
Detroit ML (A bet)
Atlanta +3 (A bet)
New Orleans ML (A bet)
Arizona +4.5 (A bet)
St Louis ML (A bet)
NY Giants +3.5 (A bet)
Dallas ML (A bet)
Philadelphia +3 (A bet)
Washington ML (A bet)

If you cant tell, System 12 is a division system. Basically you are going to bet that every team in the NFL will when at least one game a year in the division (ML or spread). I have back tested using Covers.com stats and since 1985 this system is 351-1 with the only loss being Oakland in 2005. 

Not quite sure the best way to handle the bets using this system so any input would be appreciated.
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#15
Posted: 9/3/2013 4:16:04 PM
I think that you overlooked a couple of games, you're only playing 11 of the 16 games. Better hurry and get those other 5 in.
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#16
Posted: 9/3/2013 4:19:17 PM
I think that you overlooked a couple of games, you're only playing 11 of the 16 games. Better hurry and get those other 5 in. Oh, that's right, you'll probably cover those in systems 1 thru 10. Looks like a bookie's dream. 
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#17
Posted: 9/3/2013 4:31:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dplewis34:

Week 1 bets

System 11:
Minnesota +4.5 (A bet)
Chicago ML (A bet)
Cincinnati +3 (A bet)
Green Bay +4.5 (A bet)
San Francisco ML (A bet)
Seattle ML (A bet)
Indianapolis ML (A bet)
New England ML (A bet)
Washington ML (A bet)
Houston ML (A bet)

System 12:
New England ML (A bet)
Buffalo +9.5 (A bet)
Minnesota +4.5 (A bet)
Detroit ML (A bet)
Atlanta +3 (A bet)
New Orleans ML (A bet)
Arizona +4.5 (A bet)
St Louis ML (A bet)
NY Giants +3.5 (A bet)
Dallas ML (A bet)
Philadelphia +3 (A bet)
Washington ML (A bet)

If you cant tell, System 12 is a division system. Basically you are going to bet that every team in the NFL will when at least one game a year in the division (ML or spread). I have back tested using Covers.com stats and since 1985 this system is 351-1 with the only loss being Oakland in 2005. 

Not quite sure the best way to handle the bets using this system so any input would be appreciated.

Couple questions, how did you get stats back to 1985 on covers , I can't get past 2003! Also you are saying this is an 8 game chase if each team wins one game. That Is a ridiculous amount of units at 8 games. So if I did the math right losing that 8 game chase only cost close to 400 units 
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#18
Posted: 9/3/2013 4:52:56 PM
Jeff, you are right, the system 12 (division bets) do only go back to 2003, I apologize on the confusion. It would be a 6 game chase since you play the 3 other teams in your league twice. This is a more risky system since this is a 6 game chase so I would bet a low amount. With that being said the system has gone 351-1 since 2003. I am trying to find some filters to use to make this into a 3 game chase instead of 6 game to help with the risk. 
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#19
Posted: 9/3/2013 4:54:57 PM
reaptherewards, I do see what you are saying. System 11 only has games in the first 3-4 weeks of the year so it looks like there are a bunch of games. After that there will be fewer games played a week.
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#20
Posted: 9/3/2013 5:43:03 PM
Just looking at last year both DET and KC were 0-6 in their division

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#21
Posted: 9/3/2013 5:45:34 PM
The year before CLE ,MIN, ST.L went 0-6 that's 5 losses in 2 years!
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#22
Posted: 9/3/2013 5:47:34 PM
WAS, DET ,ST.L the year before that all went 0-6
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#23
Posted: 9/3/2013 6:00:35 PM
Ok did the math, from 2003-04 season thru the 2012-13 season 320 games were played. The record was 320- 20 putting you about 1,376 units in the whole for 10 years. I think I'm gonna pass on that one. 
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#24
Posted: 9/3/2013 7:15:25 PM
Looks like Detroit covered the spread against chicago last year.   That's a winner.  
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#25
Posted: 9/3/2013 7:18:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Ok did the math, from 2003-04 season thru the 2012-13 season 320 games were played. The record was 320- 20 putting you about 1,376 units in the whole for 10 years. I think I'm gonna pass on that one. 

Messed up my own math, 300-20 1,396 units in the hole.
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