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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Betting Blindly on the Money Line 2007-2012
canuck10
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canuck10
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#1
Posted: 8/21/2013 2:17:30 PM
Posted this in NFL Betting section, but I thought it was more applicable to Systems & Strategies. 


I heard about someone doing this for college football and how there was value betting huge favorites, but very few people were willing to bet $1200+ to win $100. Thought I would do the same for the NFL. 

Here are the findings (betting $100 for underdogs, betting 'x' to win $100 for favorites):

Home Favorites = -$10,900
Home Underdogs =  -$345
Away Favorites = -$6,055
Away Underdogs = -$2,560

The only profitable blind bets were:

Home Underdogs (weeks 1-4) = $1,725 
Home Underdogs (weeks 5-8) = $1,010
Home Underdogs (weeks 13-16) = $665
Away Favorites (weeks 9-12) = $2,530
Away Underdogs (weeks 13-16) = $2,080

The only profitable blind bets based on spread (still playing ML though) were:

Home Favorites between -7.5 and -11 went 167-26 for a profit of $4,420. Home favorites -15.5 and greater went 19-0 for a profit of $1900 (however, too much risk in my opinion as 2 losses could destroy your bankroll). 

Away dogs between +2.5 and +6.5 went 210-276 for a profit of $7,420. Home underdogs between +7 and +10 went 28-52 for a profit of $3,235. 

All raw data was obtained through footballlocks.com 
It took a long time to tabulate this stuff, but I enjoy doing so. I'm not perfect, so some human error is to be expected, but if I can help anyone be successful, then hopefully karma comes my way. 

Cheers

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Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Riceboi
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#2
Posted: 8/22/2013 9:15:12 AM
Cool info thanks
Posted using a mobile device.
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bulichm send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
bulichm
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#3
Posted: 8/23/2013 9:12:47 AM
Sounds like playing SU dogs would make a good chase system.
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canuck10
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canuck10
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#4
Posted: 8/27/2013 9:26:48 AM
@ Bulichm - maybe in weeks 13-16, as both home & away have been profitable during that stretch.
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