I heard about someone doing this for college football and how there was value betting huge favorites, but very few people were willing to bet $1200+ to win $100. Thought I would do the same for the NFL.
Here are the findings (betting $100 for underdogs, betting 'x' to win $100 for favorites):
Home Favorites = -$10,900
Home Underdogs = -$345
Away Favorites = -$6,055
Away Underdogs = -$2,560
The only profitable blind bets were:
Home Underdogs (weeks 1-4) = $1,725
Home Underdogs (weeks 5-8) = $1,010
Home Underdogs (weeks 13-16) = $665
Away Favorites (weeks 9-12) = $2,530
Away Underdogs (weeks 13-16) = $2,080
The only profitable blind bets based on spread (still playing ML though) were:
Home Favorites between -7.5 and -11 went 167-26 for a profit of $4,420. Home favorites -15.5 and greater went 19-0 for a profit of $1900 (however, too much risk in my opinion as 2 losses could destroy your bankroll).
Away dogs between +2.5 and +6.5 went 210-276 for a profit of $7,420. Home underdogs between +7 and +10 went 28-52 for a profit of $3,235.
All raw data was obtained through footballlocks.com
It took a long time to tabulate this stuff, but I enjoy doing so. I'm not perfect, so some human error is to be expected, but if I can help anyone be successful, then hopefully karma comes my way.