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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: My 6 game chase with "chase insurance"
neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
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#1
Posted: 7/25/2013 6:08:08 PM

Reading some of the idea's in the forum about ways to chase and reduce risk has led me to an idea I am thinking may work. Basically I am making picks, based on my own handicapping, and chasing losses to 6 games.  My betting progression will be  1%, 3%, 6%, 13%, 26%, 51%  . After each chase ends HALF of the profit will be put back into the chase amount , and the other HALF put into what I will call chase insurance. I am thinking that if I let this build up, and I reach a game 4 or 5, I can reduce some or all of the amount left to chase by using some of the banked "chase insurance" to buy down the amount I am chasing... Once I have doubled the roll, I will cash out half, and begin again. Sounds good in theory...lets see if it works

starting roll  $914.95

Record 0-0

Profit  $0

Chase Insurance  Banked -$0

 

Bet 1 - Red Sox/Rays Under 8.5  +100

 1% - $9.15 to win $9.15 

 

 

 

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#2
Posted: 7/25/2013 7:00:48 PM
Very interesting. My initial thought was that it will take a long time to double up especially if you are betting on any faves. I need to give this some more thought. Maybe I'll back test this using $1000 starting bankroll and see how it would have done on the RPI system. Not sure how to handle multiple chases at once.
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NoSoLucky
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#3
Posted: 7/25/2013 8:21:27 PM
No offense, but all of it is your money regardless of what you call it or where you put it. $500 profit and $500 banked insurance is $1000 of your gambling money no matter how you slice it.

Why not have your starting bankroll be $457 and fund your chase insurance with the other $457 immediately?
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#4
Posted: 7/25/2013 8:44:32 PM

boston game ppd ....

Bet 1 ..Oakland  -106   $9.15 to win $8.63

 

- difference is that if $457 is my initial roll, betting 1% is only half the profit ..as the roll grows, the bets grows, and the insurance grows...in theory anyway ..

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NoSoLucky
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#5
Posted: 7/25/2013 9:04:04 PM
You are assuming you're going to win enough early on to get a decent size amount for the insurance to cover you later. What happens if you lose a big chase very early with only $30 in the insurance bank?

Maybe you should put SOME of your starting bank in insurance and start at 3% instead of 1% and keep 100% winnings for profit. Then when you hit a certain profit amount you start adding  half to insurance again and go back to 1%.

Just a thought.
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Posted: 7/25/2013 9:13:14 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

You are assuming you're going to win enough early on to get a decent size amount for the insurance to cover you later. What happens if you lose a big chase very early with only $30 in the insurance bank?

Maybe you should put SOME of your starting bank in insurance and start at 3% instead of 1% and keep 100% winnings for profit. Then when you hit a certain profit amount you start adding  half to insurance again and go back to 1%.

Just a thought.

 

agreed that if I hit a 6 game loss right off the bat doesn't matter how I manage my money..I am done... cant start at 3% for my chase though because to properly recoup my losses and still make a profit, starting at 3% would not leave me enough by game 6 to recoup losses of games 1-5  ...I like the idea though of adding more to insurance once I hit a certain point...ie , if I double up ,..cash out a quarter , start a quarter as insurance and start over..with 1.5 the bank roll ...interesting...anyway got a ways to go before I need to worry about that...

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Posted: 7/25/2013 9:14:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

You are assuming you're going to win enough early on to get a decent size amount for the insurance to cover you later. What happens if you lose a big chase very early with only $30 in the insurance bank?

Maybe you should put SOME of your starting bank in insurance and start at 3% instead of 1% and keep 100% winnings for profit. Then when you hit a certain profit amount you start adding  half to insurance again and go back to 1%.

Just a thought.

 

agreed that if I hit a 6 game loss right off the bat doesn't matter how I manage my money..I am done... cant start at 3% for my chase though because to properly recoup my losses and still make a profit, starting at 3% would not leave me enough by game 6 to recoup losses of games 1-5  ...I like the idea though of adding more to insurance once I hit a certain point...ie , if I double up ,..cash out a quarter , start a quarter as insurance and start over..with 1.5 the bank roll ...interesting...anyway got a ways to go before I need to worry about that...

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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 7/25/2013 9:14:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

You are assuming you're going to win enough early on to get a decent size amount for the insurance to cover you later. What happens if you lose a big chase very early with only $30 in the insurance bank?

Maybe you should put SOME of your starting bank in insurance and start at 3% instead of 1% and keep 100% winnings for profit. Then when you hit a certain profit amount you start adding  half to insurance again and go back to 1%.

Just a thought.

 

agreed that if I hit a 6 game loss right off the bat doesn't matter how I manage my money..I am done... cant start at 3% for my chase though because to properly recoup my losses and still make a profit, starting at 3% would not leave me enough by game 6 to recoup losses of games 1-5  ...I like the idea though of adding more to insurance once I hit a certain point...ie , if I double up ,..cash out a quarter , start a quarter as insurance and start over..with 1.5 the bank roll ...interesting...anyway got a ways to go before I need to worry about that...

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#9
Posted: 7/25/2013 9:23:08 PM
man, sorry about the triple posts..at a cottage with not great internet ..never sure if it works when I hit submit or not..
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#10
Posted: 7/26/2013 12:24:10 PM

level 2  (3%)  Mets gm 1 over 8  -104

$27.45 to win $26.39

 

 

 

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#11
Posted: 7/26/2013 4:50:20 PM

starting roll  $914.95

Chase Record 1-0

Profit  $17.24

Chase Insurance  Banked -$8.62

Current Roll - $923.57

next play

Level 1 - Tampa Bay  (1%)  -105  , $9.24 to win $8.80

 

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#12
Posted: 7/27/2013 12:59:23 AM

starting roll  $914.95

Chase Record 2-0

Profit  $26.04

Chase Insurance  Banked :$13.02

Current Roll: $927.97

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#13
Posted: 7/27/2013 4:39:47 PM
Level 1 - (1%)   Padres/D-backs  U 8.5 +104   $9.28 to win $9.47


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JEFFTHEHAT
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#14
Posted: 7/27/2013 5:14:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:

Level 1 - (1%)   Padres/D-backs  U 8.5 +104   $9.28 to win $9.47



Let's get em that is a (B) bet in my 2 game chase system
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Posted: 7/28/2013 11:31:48 AM
Level 2 - (3%)  Mets  +133   $27.84 to win $37.03




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Posted: 7/28/2013 3:14:30 PM
..ouch ...assuming Mets don't pull off a miraculous comeback i am going to level 3..

Level 3 - (6%)  Padres/Dbacks U 8.5 -110   $55.68 to win $50.62



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#17
Posted: 7/28/2013 11:47:49 PM


starting roll  $914.95

Chase Record 3-0

Profit  $39.54

Chase Insurance  Banked :$19.77

Current Roll: $934.72


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