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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Live Betting system?
NoSoLucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#1
Posted: 7/23/2013 7:58:33 PM
Anyone try live betting? Anyone try a live betting system?

Just curious as the opportunity for many small bets over a short period of time present themselves. To me this is safer than a few large bets especially when it comes to chasing.

My internet connection is spotty so doing the live betting thing is a hassle and from what I can tell the odds are TERRIBLE.

More info would be great. Its a new generation of betting and I think it would be nice to see who could come up with the first successful betting system for live play.
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hansivonmueller
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#2
Posted: 7/24/2013 12:29:31 AM
I do live betting. Yesterday I missed the RPI post, so didn't get to make the plays before game start (Det and Oak). However, made an in-play bet (parlay) when Det. was winning and Oakland was losing @ odds of 4.66. Oakland came through for the win, which was great.

It got me thinking, if a RPI pick is losing in the 1st 6 innings, why not take them to win in-play when the odds are better, hoping that the oppositions bull-pen is wanting. How this would have fared over the season, I do not know. If I have time I will make an attempt to track down the "A" plays and see how many made a late comeback whilst losing at anytime in 1st 6 innings.  If anyone has the data of "A" games that would be a great help.
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NoSoLucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#3
Posted: 7/25/2013 10:03:32 PM
My idea is more simple.

Take the "no runs scored in _ inning" bets.

Try to win 3 innings through out the game starting at the first inning for .33 units and chase until you have won 3 times then quit session.

Most games have 3 innings or more where no runs are scored. Yesterday (7/24) ALL but 1 game met that criteria and that was the STL game.

If you filtered out games involving teams with high scoring averages you may have won 9 units yesterday with that system. Thats a lot in a single day.

THE PROBLEM. Most books only have a few games where you can live bet in a day. Some only have one.
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NoSoLucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#4
Posted: 7/25/2013 10:06:52 PM
I will be working on a killer system for the NFL this year. I hope its ready by week 3 for some big

It involves the "next play a running play" bet. I know there is a way to win that bet more than 50% of the time. I just have to find it.
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BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 7/26/2013 8:26:45 AM
I don't pay attention to the games after I wager them to play live, maybe NFL though.
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NoSoLucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#6
Posted: 7/26/2013 1:26:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

I don't pay attention to the games after I wager them to play live, maybe NFL though.


I know some people hedge their bets using live betting.

If you make an even money bet for a team to win and you see that the other team with less than 3 min left in the game is receiving a kick off or punt and can possibly score a field goal to win (you lose) you can cancel that out. You simply put money on the "field goal yes" bet for the outcome of that offensive possession when it starts.

That way you only lose a little to none no matter what happens. If your team is up by many points, do nothing and take the win or play with the house money and try to double up with projected winnings. If you blow it, you actually lose nothing because your initial bet is a win to refund you.
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#7
Posted: 7/26/2013 2:15:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:



I know some people hedge their bets using live betting.

If you make an even money bet for a team to win and you see that the other team with less than 3 min left in the game is receiving a kick off or punt and can possibly score a field goal to win (you lose) you can cancel that out. You simply put money on the "field goal yes" bet for the outcome of that offensive possession when it starts.

That way you only lose a little to none no matter what happens. If your team is up by many points, do nothing and take the win or play with the house money and try to double up with projected winnings. If you blow it, you actually lose nothing because your initial bet is a win to refund you.
I found a web site that talks about hedging with Ov/Und and also the spreads.  Really informative.  It also says about doubling your bets, once you get an idea of how the game is going.  I'll post the link when I get a chance, probably this weekend, if I can find it.  I think it's a covers thread too.
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thirdperson
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#8
Posted: 7/30/2013 1:46:44 PM
Here is a profitable MLB system.  Moneyline first teams ahead by 3+ runs.  This is a winner 95% of the time from betting on 67 games.  But disadvantages in few live games offered by sportbooks and much time spend monitoring scores.
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NoSoLucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#9
Posted: 7/30/2013 10:44:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thirdperson:

Here is a profitable MLB system.  Moneyline first teams ahead by 3+ runs.  This is a winner 95% of the time from betting on 67 games.  But disadvantages in few live games offered by sportbooks and much time spend monitoring scores.


I thought about that, but the juice is insane. Bookmaker.eu actually lets you live bet on ALL the MLB games. Only basic bets like ML RL and TOTALS that adjust as the game goes on. But the odds get crazy for ML.

One thing I have noticed is if the team you want to bet on before the game starts has crappy odds, like -290 and they are the visiting team you can wait till after the top of the first inning. If they don't score the odds go down a decent amount.
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NoSoLucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#10
Posted: 8/1/2013 5:08:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

I found a web site that talks about hedging with Ov/Und and also the spreads.  Really informative.  It also says about doubling your bets, once you get an idea of how the game is going.  I'll post the link when I get a chance, probably this weekend, if I can find it.  I think it's a covers thread too.


Ever find that thread?
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#11
Posted: 8/3/2013 5:22:58 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:



I thought about that, but the juice is insane. Bookmaker.eu actually lets you live bet on ALL the MLB games. Only basic bets like ML RL and TOTALS that adjust as the game goes on. But the odds get crazy for ML.

One thing I have noticed is if the team you want to bet on before the game starts has crappy odds, like -290 and they are the visiting team you can wait till after the top of the first inning. If they don't score the odds go down a decent amount.

Can you give an example of how much the line moves? Let's say a home fave is up 3-0 after 3. ML was -150, what kind ML would the in game line move to?

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NoSoLucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#12
Posted: 8/3/2013 9:37:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Can you give an example of how much the line moves? Let's say a home fave is up 3-0 after 3. ML was -150, what kind ML would the in game line move to?


I would say around -900 for a fave after 3 innings. Maybe worse depending on the book.

An interesting thing some people are doing is betting on slight road underdogs at something like +120. If they score before the fave does, the fave becomes the underdog and you bet that as well. $100 on both +120s means you win $20 no matter what happens.

Go to betonline.ag and click on sportsbook then the red Live Betting button to check it out.
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NoSoLucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#13
Posted: 8/3/2013 9:49:34 PM
I also saw that betonline.ag lets you bet on how many homeruns will be hit in individual innings.

0 = -600
1 = +400
2 = +725

Some teams like MIA and SF playing each other would be a pretty safe bet on zero HRs every inning as they are ranked 29 and 30 in HRs. At $100 with $16.67 profit an inning if no HRs are hit in the game you would make $150.
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