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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2 game chase with a unique betting strategy!
JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#1
Posted: 7/23/2013 5:25:31 PM
I have a 2 game chase for totals ready to unleash, it has a ton of losses but the way you bet is what makes this very profitable.

First of all totals have an ave. of -110 so if you lose a 2 gm chase you only lose 3.41 units.

I can tell you as of last night the record is 192-54 if you took that at face value it's up roughly 8 units hardly worth playing

If you are betting a fav. system the ave. is probably -150 a game making a 2 game chase loss of -5.25 units, a 3 game loss with standard betting would cost you 14.63 units and 4 game chase would be 36.58 units! 

So this is how I propose to bet: If lose a 2 game chase let's just say a loss of -3.41 units (the ave.) the team that triggered the chase you wait for it's next chase, then start the bet with a wager that recovers the lost units (-3.41) if the game is -110 again your first bet would be 3.75 units enough to recover the losses and make it even if goes to game 2 again your bet would be 7.87 units. If wins or not chase over again. If wins recovers all losses from before. If loses repeat. which means your first bet would be 12.78 units at -110 for the 3rd chase which is still less than a 3 game chase for fav's. Only 3 times this year would you have to chase to a 4th time and that is less than what a "D" loss would cost you playing fav's. Going to back check only to see how many times went to 4th chase. Bottom line is to date playing like this would net you 192+/- units as there is quite a few dogs in this. This basically men's no losses! Questions are encouraged
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#2
Posted: 7/23/2013 5:49:15 PM
so with this betting system for this pick system, you are only making money on the A or B game and all chase bets are to recover?

and of course, how are you deciding the O/U for each game?
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JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#3
Posted: 7/23/2013 5:59:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

so with this betting system for this pick system, you are only making money on the A or B game and all chase bets are to recover?

and of course, how are you deciding the O/U for each game?

That's up to the bettor, the way I laid out is least amount of exposure but if you bet to win a unit this system could make 300+ units a year
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#4
Posted: 7/23/2013 6:21:13 PM

Jeff

so basically is this a 6 gm chase ?, i.e 3 rounds of 2 bets ?.if so, why not just chase to six ..at the end of the day its the same thing no ?..or am I missing something.. 

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#5
Posted: 7/23/2013 6:28:36 PM
Is this a team totals Chase or game totals Chase on that team
Posted using a mobile device.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#6
Posted: 7/23/2013 6:49:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chound:

Is this a team totals Chase or game totals Chase on that team

It's a chase for the game total
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#7
Posted: 7/23/2013 7:46:44 PM
a little of topic, but i was thinking about game totals and a system that could assist in getting more wins as picking totals is hard.

I'm thinking about using starting pitching totals results as the main component. You can find the data here. http://www.donbest.com/mlb/pitching-ats/

Just for shits and giggles i laid a small amount for the under on NYY/TEX due to each pitcher being 70.6% / 88.9% for the under.

Lets see what happens. I'm looking for a way to back test this.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#8
Posted: 7/24/2013 12:19:00 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by neilsy25]

Jeff

so basically is this a 6 gm chase ?, i.e 3 rounds of 2 bets ?.if so, why not just chase to six ..at the end of the day its the same thing no ?..or am I missing something.. 

[/Quote

It's not the same, if you were to use this system as a straight up 6 game chase there would be 6 losses for a complete annihilation of your bankroll a couple times over. This way you alleviate any losses with much less risk.
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#9
Posted: 7/24/2013 8:20:06 AM

thanks ..but I still don't understand...so your betting progression is

1st chase - 1.1u  , 2.31u

2nd chase  - 3.75 u , 7.87u

3rd  chase 12.78 u , 28.11 U

so at this point if you lose you are down about 56 units...how do you recover these units, since this will happen 6 times..?

again, sorry if I am missing something, like you , I am always looking for different/safer ways to chase , so I am trying to understand this...thanks

 

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#10
Posted: 7/24/2013 1:26:06 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, Jeff, but I think I got it.  It's not a STRAIGHT 6 game chase. It's 3 2 game chases, in that the 2nd and 3rd legs of the chase may not be for another week or two.  So...you take a 2g loss on a leg, meanwhile you are playing other chases that are winning, then BOOM, the trigger comes for the 2nd leg of chase and you play it with the 2g loss from the previous leg and another unit...meanwhile playing other winning chases...same thing again if the 2nd leg losses.
It's kinda like having a slow leak on a tire, instead of a blowout, it's nice and easy.  The total loss doesn't hit right away...especially when you are winning nearly 75% of the chases.

Thoughts?

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#11
Posted: 7/24/2013 1:30:10 PM
On top of that, you can do like I do, and just not bet the 2nd or third leg of the chase, just take the losses and move on.  I do this for all systems.  Just cause a system says Team A will win, doesn't mean I'm going to take a chance against Team B's All Star, Saragin A 5, WHIP .800 ERA 1.09 pitcher!!! 
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#12
Posted: 7/24/2013 2:56:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Correct me if I'm wrong, Jeff, but I think I got it.  It's not a STRAIGHT 6 game chase. It's 3 2 game chases, in that the 2nd and 3rd legs of the chase may not be for another week or two.  So...you take a 2g loss on a leg, meanwhile you are playing other chases that are winning, then BOOM, the trigger comes for the 2nd leg of chase and you play it with the 2g loss from the previous leg and another unit...meanwhile playing other winning chases...same thing again if the 2nd leg losses.
It's kinda like having a slow leak on a tire, instead of a blowout, it's nice and easy.  The total loss doesn't hit right away...especially when you are winning nearly 75% of the chases.

Thoughts?


Bullseye Buck!
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#13
Posted: 7/24/2013 3:15:32 PM

 Its still a 6 games loss ?..whether you lose all 6 in a row...or lose 2..wait  till next time...lose 2 more....wait till next time , lose to more, either way your down the cost of chasing 6 games ..spread it over 6 straight games..or over a month , at the end of the day the unit lossed are the same ...no ?

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#14
Posted: 7/24/2013 6:33:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by neilsy25:

 Its still a 6 games loss ?..whether you lose all 6 in a row...or lose 2..wait  till next time...lose 2 more....wait till next time , lose to more, either way your down the cost of chasing 6 games ..spread it over 6 straight games..or over a month , at the end of the day the unit lossed are the same ...no ?


Look at it this way....You win a few chases and you're up 10 units, then you get hit with a 2g loss.  By playing it straight 6 games, which all lose, not only have you lost all your profits, you've killed your bankroll.  By what I stated, you might be up to 20 units by the time the 2nd 2g chase comes about, and 2 losses might eat into your profits, but it won't kill your bankroll.  Same for the third.  You can also choose to either not play it, or to play it as a new chase and start with one unit. 
I do know what you're saying, a loss is a loss is a loss.  I do it this way: I follow about 5 or 6 systems, and I keep records on how they are doing....and plan on doing my own backtests over the offseason with them.  Anyway, I choose what i wish to play and make my plays.  At the end of the day, I see if I'm up or down.  If I'm down, I increase my bets for ALL plays by about 25%...$100 to $125 or so...If I win, my bets stay the same.  Since I've started doing this, I'm up about 50%.  I've stopped chasing the losses in the systems and I'm able to skip plays that are a B bet but against a great pitcher/team...like I said in post #11.
As for any suggestions about Labby lines, I've tried to do those a couple of times and just got to lazy to keep it going!
GL, Neil.  Fire away any more questions/suggestions...we're all here to win, and we're all looking at different ways to get there. Maybe another set eyes will find a filter to get rid of some of those losses.
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#15
Posted: 7/25/2013 12:04:28 AM

guys, I am not here to argue, and like u say...we are all on the same side, but c'mon, that makes no sense.... either its a chase or it isn't..... sure, if you are up 10 units one week, and decide not to chase any further..that's fine.. but what about all the other weeks, when you are down 10 units..so you do chase to game 4,,,5,,and 6,, and lose.. now you are down 50+ units, and the following week, just being up 10 units and deciding not to chase is not an option.............. how is this a unique betting strategy ?..sometimes chasing,..sometimes not... what kind of back testing or logic supports this ?..how can it be 192-0 , when sometimes you go to 6 games... and sometimes you don't ?.. I dunno, I will follow along, and of course hope you guys are right and I am wrong so we win $$ ...but ...

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#16
Posted: 7/25/2013 1:22:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

On top of that, you can do like I do, and just not bet the 2nd or third leg of the chase, just take the losses and move on.  I do this for all systems.  Just cause a system says Team A will win, doesn't mean I'm going to take a chance against Team B's All Star, Saragin A 5, WHIP .800 ERA 1.09 pitcher!!! 


I was wondering, do you ever do the opposite? By opposite I mean do you sometimes bet the "B" game of a chase even if the "A" game has already won?

I ask because I have started doing what you're doing and bailing on teams after one loss and not chasing because I see a bad pitching match up. But sometimes I see GREAT pitching match ups and double dip. Like STL last 2 games.

I have only been doing this a for a little while and was curious as to its long term success if you have been doing this for longer than I.
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#17
Posted: 7/25/2013 7:48:47 AM
Neil, I'm not arguing either, trying to explain it away.  Argument is good if used properly, like here.  Personally, I look to the pitchers...next year I'm going to add team's OPS as a part of my spreadsheet, and figure that into my calculations.  Best way, if you're not sure, is to follow, but not play the system....get a feel for it.  Do that for all the systems and then come back next March/April knowing what does well, and what to avoid. 

...Lucky, oh yes, for sure, or a horrible matchup and take the over.

How I do it doesn't always work.  Since Saturday, I'm 5-4 playing Over, and 5-3 playing Under.  At least I have a profit!
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