We're experimenting with our forums. Check it out for yourself.

2nd half road FADE system

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 8 of 33 «  6 7 8 9 10   »
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2nd half road FADE system
kenkean89 PM kenkean89
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 1343
 
kenkean89
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#176
Posted: 7/13/2014 9:38:50 AM
Great work Dan!
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4965
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#177
Posted: 7/13/2014 7:59:01 PM

We have 6 teams that qualify this year. Houston, Texas, Cubs, SD, Colo and AZ.

I will post the plays during th break. Please note, we will not fade these teams when they play other teams on this list. The only exception will be if after eliminating the series versus another team on the list, ther eis still at least 5 games on the road trip.

For the double dip, I use 5 labby lines, one for each game.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4965
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#178
Posted: 7/13/2014 8:35:20 PM

Having 3 teams from the same division qualify has really reduced the number of plays since we eliminate series if both qualify. There are only 15 plays for this year, not counting double dips. Here are the dates of the plays with team and number of games for possible double dips.

  • July 18 - Hou 6, Texas 7
  • July 25 - AZ 6
  • Aug 1 - Texas 6
  • Aug 5 - SD 5
  • Aug 12 - AZ 10
  • Aug 14 - Hou 10, SD 7
  • Aug 25 - Texas 6
  • Aug 26 - Cubs 7
  • Sept 5 - Hou 9, AZ 6
  • Sept 8 - Cubs 6, Colo 6
  • Sept 16 - Texas 6

Some of the plays have an eliminated series somewhere in the road trip. I took that series out, so we'll need to keep an eye on those that have one of those involved.

 

 

kenkean89 PM kenkean89
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 1343
 
kenkean89
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#179
Posted: 7/13/2014 9:44:09 PM
thanks Dan.....how do you set up your labby for the double dips?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4965
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#180
Posted: 7/13/2014 10:20:19 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kenkean89:

thanks Dan.....how do you set up your labby for the double dips?

I use a seperate line for each game. Something like this:

  • gm 1 x-x
  • gm 2 x-x
  • gm 3 x-x
  • gm 4 x-x
  • gm 5 x-x

Use x for something you are comfortable with. I'm using 1/2 of my normal betting unit.

kenkean89 PM kenkean89
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 1343
 
kenkean89
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#181
Posted: 7/13/2014 10:29:20 PM
Got it! Thanks bro......
oilcountry99 PM oilcountry99
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 1003
 
oilcountry99
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#182
Posted: 7/14/2014 9:21:41 PM
I'm wondering why you chose to not use labby for the whole system?

Maybe a 3 game aggressive labby
Posted using a mobile device.
CanisMajor PM CanisMajor
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 185
 
CanisMajor
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#183
Posted: 7/15/2014 9:51:22 AM
Looking forward to this Dan.
 
Calling the system, 'Road Kill'.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4965
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#184
Posted: 7/15/2014 12:38:08 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

I'm wondering why you chose to not use labby for the whole system?

Maybe a 3 game aggressive labby

I'm not saying you can't use a labby line, personal preference. I will do a labby line on the double dip only because that portion of the system has had losses and a higher percentage go to a game 5.

I'm actually going to run 2 different double dip methods. The first is the traditional win one and out (which you can triple dip or more if there are still at least 5 games left on the road trip). This is how it is normally tracked.

The second method for tracking the double dip is to run on a labby line all the way through the road trip, every game included. If a team we are fading loses (win for us) and has 4 games remaining, their next game will be an A game on the labby line, if we lose that game, then next is a B game. If we win that bet that leaves the target team with 3 games left and their next game will be another A game. I'm taking these all the way through to try and pick up some extra wins.

I'm playing the labby with 1/2 units and 2 numbers, so the first bet will be to win 1 unit.

Everyone can bet as they see fit and use whatever money management, but this is how I will track it.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4965
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#185
Posted: 7/15/2014 12:38:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CanisMajor:

Looking forward to this Dan.
 
Calling the system, 'Road Kill'.

I like it.

oilcountry99 PM oilcountry99
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 1003
 
oilcountry99
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#186
Posted: 7/15/2014 2:29:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I'm not saying you can't use a labby line, personal preference. I will do a labby line on the double dip only because that portion of the system has had losses and a higher percentage go to a game 5.

I'm actually going to run 2 different double dip methods. The first is the traditional win one and out (which you can triple dip or more if there are still at least 5 games left on the road trip). This is how it is normally tracked.

The second method for tracking the double dip is to run on a labby line all the way through the road trip, every game included. If a team we are fading loses (win for us) and has 4 games remaining, their next game will be an A game on the labby line, if we lose that game, then next is a B game. If we win that bet that leaves the target team with 3 games left and their next game will be another A game. I'm taking these all the way through to try and pick up some extra wins.

I'm playing the labby with 1/2 units and 2 numbers, so the first bet will be to win 1 unit.

Everyone can bet as they see fit and use whatever money management, but this is how I will track it.


Thanks for your response Dan.  I find some useful info to the General Concept here, however it will be juice heavy and I would have to say not the best 'value' plays.  I may utilize these match ups in some form to generate profit.  With all of your documented results it appears that picking up 1 unit per series blind betting these should be attainable, just not my preferred method of operation (blind chase betting).

All the best of success as this plays out! I'll be rooting for everyone's success!
oilcountry99 PM oilcountry99
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 1003
 
oilcountry99
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#187
Posted: 7/15/2014 2:40:19 PM
Oh ya, I will say one nice thing about this system is there isn't an abundance of series to potentially have your bankroll tied up in several on going series all at once, thus giving the potential to be a little more aggressive if one choses to do so.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4965
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#188
Posted: 7/18/2014 12:56:57 PM

Ok, here we go!

Friday plays: Toronto (fade Texas) and ChiSox (fade Houston). Both A games.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4965
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#189
Posted: 7/18/2014 1:29:39 PM

Revised schedule of plays. I decided to include the plays versus other teams that qualify for the system. I never excluded them before and there wasn't a loss in the last 8-10 years on the regular system because of this, so I'm including the plays. We now have 24 plays.

Also, for the double dip, I will track as we did last year. We will continue the double dips after wins as long as there are at least 5 games remaining on the road trip.

  • July 18 - Hou 6, Texas 7
  • July 22 - SD 7
  • July 25 - AZ 6
  • July 28 - Colo 7
  • Aug 1 - Texas 9, Cubs 6
  • Aug 5 - SD 5
  • Aug 8 - Colo 6
  • Aug 12 - AZ 10
  • Aug 14 - Hou 10, SD 10
  • Aug 25 - Texas 10, Colo 7
  • Aug 26 - Cubs 7
  • Sept 1 -  AZ 10
  • Sept 5 - Hou 9, SD 9
  • Sept 8 - Cubs 6, Colo 6
  • Sept 16 - Texas 6
  • Sept 18 - AZ  7
  • Sept 22 - Colo 6, Hou 6
  • Bart_ PM Bart_
    Joined: Mar 2008
    Posts: 3548
     
    Bart_
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#190
    Posted: 7/18/2014 2:40:04 PM
    Thanks Dan.
    I think I will minimize my risk by betting to win 1u on the series which play on a team not on the list and 0.5u on team which is on our list.
    Posted using a mobile device.
    Danrules24 PM Danrules24
    Joined: May 2012
    Posts: 4965
     
    Danrules24
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#191
    Posted: 7/18/2014 3:49:54 PM
    QUOTE

    Originally Posted by Bart_:

    Thanks Dan.
    I think I will minimize my risk by betting to win 1u on the series which play on a team not on the list and 0.5u on team which is on our list.

    Can't blame you there. Just check out the schedule of the fade team as we enter the chase.

    Danrules24 PM Danrules24
    Joined: May 2012
    Posts: 4965
     
    Danrules24
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#192
    Posted: 7/18/2014 11:27:09 PM

    Friday results:

    Toronto (fade Texas) - Loss, goes to B game Saturday.

    ChiSox (fade Houston) - WIN, 5 games left so we go to Double Dip A game Saturday.

    Fade Record: 1-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 318-0.

    • A: 1-1
    • B:
    • C:
    • D:
    • E:

    Double dip record: 

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 476-4.

  • A:
  • B:
  • C: 
  • D:
  • E:
  • Danrules24 PM Danrules24
    Joined: May 2012
    Posts: 4965
     
    Danrules24
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#193
    Posted: 7/19/2014 10:32:57 PM

    Saturday results:

    Toronto (fade Texas) - B game - Winner. Still 5 games left on road trip so Fade Texas goes to double dip A game Sunday.

    ChiSox (fade Houston) - Double dip A game winner. Houston only has 4 games left so they are done.

    Fade Record: 2-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 319-0.

    • A: 1-1
    • B: 1-0
    • C:
    • D:
    • E:

    Double dip record: 1-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 477-4.

  • A: 1-0
  • B:
  • C:
  • D:
  • E:
  • Pendo PM Pendo
    Joined: Mar 2011
    Posts: 3356
     
    Pendo
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#194
    Posted: 7/19/2014 11:01:30 PM
    Good start for this years' ROAD KILL
    stickbit PM stickbit
    Joined: Jan 2008
    Posts: 419
     
    stickbit
    Participation Meter
    Prospect
    quote#195
    Posted: 7/20/2014 10:49:11 AM
    Danrules24 PM Danrules24
    Joined: May 2012
    Posts: 4965
     
    Danrules24
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#196
    Posted: 7/21/2014 12:01:03 PM

    Sunday results:

    Toronto (fade Texas) - A game double dip - Winner and they are done.

    Fade Record: 2-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 319-0.

    • A: 1-1
    • B: 1-0
    • C:
    • D:
    • E:

    Double dip record: 2-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 478-4.

  • A: 2-0
  • B:
  • C:
  • D:
  • E:
  • Danrules24 PM Danrules24
    Joined: May 2012
    Posts: 4965
     
    Danrules24
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#197
    Posted: 7/22/2014 1:26:19 PM

    Tuesday: Cubs (fade SD) A game. 7 game trip for SD so we could get some double dips here if the Cubbies take care of business.

    Fade Record: 2-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 319-0.

    • A: 1-1
    • B: 1-0
    • C:
    • D:
    • E:

    Double dip record: 2-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 478-4.

  • A: 2-0
  • B:
  • C:
  • D:
  • E:
  • kenkean89 PM kenkean89
    Joined: Apr 2006
    Posts: 1343
     
    kenkean89
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#198
    Posted: 7/22/2014 11:04:31 PM
    Keep rolling Dan..........
    Danrules24 PM Danrules24
    Joined: May 2012
    Posts: 4965
     
    Danrules24
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#199
    Posted: 7/23/2014 12:07:43 AM

    Tuesday: Cubs (fade SD) A game - WINNER! 

    Cubs (fade SD) goes to double dip A game Wednesday.

    Fade Record: 3-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 320-0.

    • A: 2-1
    • B: 1-0
    • C:
    • D:
    • E:

    Double dip record: 2-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 478-4.

  • A: 2-0
  • B:
  • C:
  • D:
  • E:
  • Danrules24 PM Danrules24
    Joined: May 2012
    Posts: 4965
     
    Danrules24
    Participation Meter
    Veteran
    quote#200
    Posted: 7/23/2014 11:57:19 PM

    Wednesday results: Cubs (fade SD) double dip A game - LOSS. Double dip B game Thursday Cubs (fade SD)

     

    Fade Record: 3-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 320-0.

    • A: 2-1
    • B: 1-0
    • C:
    • D:
    • E:

    Double dip record: 2-0

    13 year record 2002-2014 of 478-4.

  • A: 2-1
  • B:
  • C:
  • D:
  • E:
  • Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 8 of 33 «  6 7 8 9 10   »
    You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
    You must login/register to post or reply.
    Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View