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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2nd half road FADE system
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#1
Posted: 7/14/2013 6:47:15 PM

I'm hoping this will be a nice compliment to CKP's Home system that has been awesome.

Rules:

- .435 or worse win % at break

- at least a 5 game road trip

- Chase up to 5 games (manage your bankroll)

- if the fade team is a favorite, take the RL on the dog

Record for 7 years, 2006-2012 seasons:

190-0. 181 (95.3%) won in the first 3 games. 81% on games 1 or 2. There has only been 1 game 5 and 9 (8-1 record) game 4's in 7 years.

I will not be chasing for a double dip. For those of you that want to do this I will provide the public service and track it on here. A double dip play uses the same rules as above if after a system win there is at least 5 more games left in the road trip. You basically start a whole new 5 game chase each time.

Records for 7 years, 2006-2012 seasons: 263-2

226 wins on the first two games - 85.3%

92.4 % within first 3 games.

The two losses make this a little tricky. I'd only bet the double dip on a labby line and stop after a 2nd win. Losing a 5 game chase would kill a bankroll. Please note I'm not recommending it or playing it. I will track for testing purposes. If you do bet the double dip, please manage your bankroll.

 

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#2
Posted: 7/14/2013 6:52:33 PM

We have 5 teams that qualify - Minn, ChiSox, Hou, Miami, Milwaukee. I'm assuming SD holds on to a 10-1 lead in the 8th, thus making them above .435.

There are only 22 series for this system that will start Friday when Miami goes to Milw.

 

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NoSoLucky
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#3
Posted: 7/14/2013 7:13:51 PM
So just to be clear.

By fade you mean bet against correct?

And if a team that is now .500 (July 14) goes down to .435 later, they don't qualify?
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#4
Posted: 7/14/2013 7:16:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:

So just to be clear.

By fade you mean bet against correct?

And if a team that is now .500 (July 14) goes down to .435 later, they don't qualify?

Yes bet against the temas I listed for the entire second half. No other teams will qualify if they drop to the .435 level, only the teams that were at that level after today's action.

I will post the entire 22 series dates later tonight.

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#5
Posted: 7/14/2013 9:30:40 PM

Here are the first few qualifying series with numbers of games. Anything more than 5 can posible qualify for a double dip for those that choose to do so. Chicago White Sox are listed as Sox.

7/19 - Miami 7

7/22 - Minn 7

7/25 - Hou 10

7/26 - Mil 7

7/29 - Sox  7

8/5 - Minn 6, Milw 9

8/6 - Miami 9

8/13 - Hou 9

8/15 -  Sox 7

8/13 - Hou 9

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#6
Posted: 7/15/2013 12:14:36 PM
thanx for posting this...sounds good!
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#7
Posted: 7/15/2013 8:54:15 PM

I just went back and did 4 more years of checking, 2002-2005, went undefeated (106-0). We now have an 11 year record of 296-0.

Combined record:

A: 174-122

B: 72-50 (83% on A&B)

C: 38-12 (96% in the first 3)

D: 9-3

E: 3-0

Note: There has only been 3 years that the system did not have a game 4, so be ready for 1 or 2 (manage your bankroll or do a labby line).

 

The additional 4 years on the double dip produced 1 loss, 177-1.

11 year record on the double dip of 440-3. 408 won in the first 3 games 92%. 11 series went to a game 5 with only 2 years without a game 5. So if you play this be ready for a game 5. I wouldn't do a Martingale chase, as a game 5 would be a huge bet. Not telling anyone how to bet but a labby line could be your friend here.

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#8
Posted: 7/15/2013 9:33:46 PM
Just found the first loss in 2001 with the Mets. The system went 38-1 that year with the Mets 5 game chase losing 50.2 units. These lines were very low (-110 to -140).
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#9
Posted: 7/16/2013 12:30:01 AM
Dan I cross referenced CKP's home system with your road fade system and I found that HOU@OAK show up for both.

2 systems picking the same team?

Gotta be money
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#10
Posted: 7/16/2013 12:31:11 AM
Thats on 8-13 for anyone interested
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#11
Posted: 7/16/2013 12:31:44 AM
It will probably be a play on the RPI system too. 
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#12
Posted: 7/16/2013 7:19:51 AM
Is anyone doing all 3 systems (2nd half road fade system, post all star home system and the RPI ? Seems like some good money to be made 
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#13
Posted: 7/16/2013 11:11:18 AM
Scotty, I will,be doing all 3 systems. Could be some heavy juice days so be careful with your bankroll. 
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#14
Posted: 7/16/2013 12:42:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scotty84:

Is anyone doing all 3 systems (2nd half road fade system, post all star home system and the RPI ? Seems like some good money to be made 
 I am too, along with my official TR plays...plus with some Ov/Und that I play, depending on the pitchers using Sagarin/WHIP.  I don't do a chase, My daily wagering outcome determines the next day's unit size.  If I lose, I will up it by .25u size, cause that means the chases lost too.  If I win, I go back to my normal Unit size.
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#15
Posted: 7/17/2013 5:32:42 PM
Dan, are you doing a full 5 game chase? 
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#16
Posted: 7/17/2013 6:23:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bart_:

Dan, are you doing a full 5 game chase? 

I will bet up to 5 games but I'm using a labby line (or 2 or 3). A 5 game chase even at low odds could be huge. I prefer to spread it out. Everyone will bet their own way, but that's what I'm doing.

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#17
Posted: 7/19/2013 12:15:45 PM

We start today with fading (betting against) Miami. So the play is Milw.

Record: 0-0

  • A:
  • B:
  • C:
  • D:
  • E:
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#18
Posted: 7/19/2013 12:19:51 PM
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#19
Posted: 7/19/2013 1:19:47 PM
Good luck! I am joining you. Thanks for the hard work!
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#20
Posted: 7/19/2013 2:27:35 PM
like it!
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#21
Posted: 7/19/2013 2:43:33 PM
I'm using 2 lines

gm 1,3,5. 50-50-50
gm 2,4
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#22
Posted: 7/19/2013 2:46:48 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by chound:

I'm using 2 lines

gm 1,3,5. 50-50-50
gm 2,4

Interesting.

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#23
Posted: 7/19/2013 5:07:39 PM
Gm 2,4 50-50-50 also.....send message before finished
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#24
Posted: 7/20/2013 2:26:18 AM

Off to a good start. Milw wins on the A game.

Record: 1-0

  • A: 1-0
  • B:
  • C:
  • D:
  • E:

Next series is Monday fading Minn.

We are in a double dip situation with Miami. They still have 6 games to go on their road trip so Saturday is double dip A game betting on Milw (Miami to lose).

Double dip record

  • A:
  • B:
  • C:
  • D:
  • E:
  • quote
    CKP22
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    #25
    Posted: 7/20/2013 10:42:03 AM
    QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    I'm hoping this will be a nice compliment to CKP's Home system that has been awesome.

    Rules:

    - .435 or worse win % at break

    - at least a 5 game road trip

    - Chase up to 5 games (manage your bankroll)

    - if the fade team is a favorite, take the RL on the dog

    Record for 7 years, 2006-2012 seasons:

    190-0. 181 (95.3%) won in the first 3 games. 81% on games 1 or 2. There has only been 1 game 5 and 9 (8-1 record) game 4's in 7 years.

    I will not be chasing for a double dip. For those of you that want to do this I will provide the public service and track it on here. A double dip play uses the same rules as above if after a system win there is at least 5 more games left in the road trip. You basically start a whole new 5 game chase each time.

    Records for 7 years, 2006-2012 seasons: 263-2

    226 wins on the first two games - 85.3%

    92.4 % within first 3 games.

    The two losses make this a little tricky. I'd only bet the double dip on a labby line and stop after a 2nd win. Losing a 5 game chase would kill a bankroll. Please note I'm not recommending it or playing it. I will track for testing purposes. If you do bet the double dip, please manage your bankroll.

     



    Looks like good stuff. Thanks for sharing.
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