1st Inning Score Chase System

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 1st Inning Score Chase System
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/22/2013 10:44:10 PM
YTD 12-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/22/13

OFFICIAL

TEX / STL (SCR N) - B BET - L

UNOFFICIAL

OAK / SEA (SCR N) - B BET - W
ATL / MIL (SCR N) - B BET - W


6/23/13

OFFICIAL

TEX / STL (SCR N) - C BET

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/24/2013 10:12:13 AM
YTD 15-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/23/13

OFFICIAL

TEX / STL (SCR N) - W
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/24/2013 11:08:07 AM
YTD 15-0 (have not back tested yet)


A Games - 8 wins
B games - 5 wins
C games - 2 wins

0 Losses

No plays today


DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/25/2013 1:46:17 PM
YTD 15-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/25/13

OFFICIAL

ARI / WAS (SCR N) - A Bet


UNOFFICIAL

TEX / NYY (SCR N) - A Bet
stickbit PM stickbit
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stickbit
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Posted: 6/25/2013 10:43:48 PM
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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Posted: 6/25/2013 10:49:02 PM
Both hIt nice job  
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/26/2013 11:18:50 AM
YTD 17-0 (have not back tested yet)


6/25/13

OFFICIAL

ARI / WAS (SCR N) - A Bet - W


UNOFFICIAL

TEX / NYY (SCR N) - A Bet - W
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/26/2013 11:22:47 AM
YTD 17-0 (have not back tested yet)


A Games - 10 wins
B games - 5 wins
C games - 2 wins

0 Losses

No plays today
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 6/28/2013 11:46:50 AM
Hope you keep rolling with this and posting plays Degen. Like it a lot!  Good luck to you!   
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/28/2013 2:03:20 PM
YTD 17-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/28/13

OFFICIAL

CIN / TEX (SCR N) - A Bet
LAA / HOU (SCR N) - A Bet
STL / OAK (SCR N) - A Bet


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / BAL (SCR N) - A Bet
WAS / NYM (SCR N) - A Bet
ARI / ATL (SCR Y) - A Bet


Here are 2 plays that i'm on the fence about - for CHC / SEA - i'm taking the "A" game off - due to the pitcher matchup - both are in top 10 in Sagarin Rankings - may jump on tomorrow if goes to B bet, and I missed an unofficial play on KC / MIN which would have been an "A" game win but since it's a 4 game series - may chase the last 3 games

CHC / SEA (SCR Y) - A Bet (TAKE A BET OFF)
KC / MIN (SCR N) - A BET (4 game series - missed A Bet)
730champ PM 730champ
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730champ
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Posted: 6/28/2013 2:19:39 PM
good work i gotta stat paying attention to this.. 17 units in two weeks is legit
730champ PM 730champ
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730champ
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Posted: 6/28/2013 2:20:13 PM
have you tracked unofficial record? 
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/28/2013 2:35:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 730champ:

have you tracked unofficial record? 

i'll have to go back through the thread - what makes a play unofficial it's usually one stat that is off by a % point or so.  So a good example would be NYY / BAL (SCR N) in 1st for today

Totals
2013 - 53.1% scr in 1st
Last 3 - 0% scr in 1st
Hm/Away - 57.9% scr in 1st

Individual Team Stats
2013 - NYY 23.1% / BAL 30%
Last 3 - NYY 0% / BAL 0%
Hm / Away - NYY 29.7% / BAL 28.2%

So in this instance - everything is a go except the TOTAL hm/away stat is not under 55%

All other Total Stats are under 55% and Individual Team Stats are under 33% - so since it's only one stat that is off by a few % points - I made it an unofficial play.

It would very helpful to really dig in and backtest to come up with the optimal Individual and Team % to use. It's just so tedious and time consuming.



DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/29/2013 11:46:37 AM
YTD 21-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/28/13 - RESULTS

OFFICIAL

CIN / TEX (SCR N) - A Bet - L
LAA / HOU (SCR N) - A Bet - W
STL / OAK (SCR N) - A Bet - W


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / BAL (SCR N) - A Bet - L
WAS / NYM (SCR N) - A Bet - W
ARI / ATL (SCR Y) - A Bet - W


OPTIONAL

KC / MIN (SCR N) - A BET (4 game series - missed A Bet) - L
CHC / SEA (SCR Y) - A Bet (TAKE A BET OFF)
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/29/2013 11:49:41 AM
YTD 21-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/29/13

OFFICIAL

CIN / TEX (SCR N) - B Bet


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / BAL (SCR N) - B Bet


OPTIONAL

KC / MIN (SCR N) - B BET (4 game series - missed A Bet)
CHC / SEA (SCR Y) - B Bet (Skipped A Bet - Bet B as A)
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/29/2013 10:20:17 PM
YTD 21-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/29/13 Results

OFFICIAL

CIN / TEX (SCR N) - B Bet - L


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / BAL (SCR N) - B Bet - L


OPTIONAL

KC / MIN (SCR N) - B BET (4 game series - missed A Bet) - L
CHC / SEA (SCR Y) - B Bet (Skipped A Bet - Bet B as A) - W
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/29/2013 10:21:30 PM
YTD 21-0 (have not back tested yet)

6/30/13

OFFICIAL

CIN / TEX (SCR N) - C Bet


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / BAL (SCR N) - C Bet


OPTIONAL

KC / MIN (SCR N) - C BET (4 game series - missed A Bet)
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 7/1/2013 1:42:56 PM
YTD 22-1 (have not back tested yet)

6/30/13 Results

OFFICIAL

CIN / TEX (SCR N) - C Bet - W


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / BAL (SCR N) - C Bet - L


OPTIONAL

KC / MIN (SCR N) - C BET (4 game series - missed A Bet) - W
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 7/1/2013 1:53:51 PM
YTD 22-1 (have not back tested yet)


A Games - 14 wins
B games - 5 wins
C games - 3 wins

1 Losses


Our first loss since tracking - good news

1) it was an unofficial play
2) it cost us ~9.1 units so we are still up at 22-1 by ~12 units


What we learned so far:

1) A series loss factoring in average odds is ~ a 9-10 unit loss
2) 60% A game win % - betting only A games would yield 14 units won and ~11 units lost
3) If we did a 2 game chase (A+B Only) - we would have won 19 units and lost 16 units
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 7/1/2013 2:08:05 PM
YTD 22-1 (have not back tested yet)

7/1/13 

OFFICIAL

DET / TOR (SCR Y) - A Bet
ARI / NYM (SCR N) - A Bet


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / MIN (SCR N) - A Bet
MIL / WAS (SCR N) - A Bet
SF / CIN (SCR N) - A BET

730champ PM 730champ
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730champ
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Posted: 7/1/2013 2:47:57 PM
do you think we should track the unofficial and official record separate?
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 7/1/2013 3:37:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 730champ:

do you think we should track the unofficial and official record separate?

Yeah - i'll go through the thread and figure it out
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 7/2/2013 9:50:56 AM
YTD 23-1 (have not back tested yet)

7/1/13 Results

OFFICIAL

DET / TOR (SCR Y) - A Bet - L
ARI / NYM (SCR N) - A Bet - L


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / MIN (SCR N) - A Bet - L
MIL / WAS (SCR N) - A Bet - L
SF / CIN (SCR N) - A BET - W
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 7/2/2013 10:05:17 AM
YTD 23-1 (have not back tested yet)

7/1/13 Results

OFFICIAL

DET / TOR (SCR Y) - B Bet
ARI / NYM (SCR N) - B Bet
SEA / TEX (SCR N) - A Bet
LAD / COL (SCR Y) - A Bet


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / MIN (SCR N) - B Bet
MIL / WAS (SCR N) - B Bet
BAL / CWS (SCR Y) - A Bet
CLE / KC (SCR N) - A Bet
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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DegenGamble
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Posted: 7/2/2013 10:06:30 AM
CORRECTION FROM LAST POST

YTD 23-1 (have not back tested yet)

7/2/13 

OFFICIAL

DET / TOR (SCR Y) - B Bet
ARI / NYM (SCR N) - B Bet
SEA / TEX (SCR N) - A Bet
LAD / COL (SCR Y) - A Bet


UNOFFICIAL

NYY / MIN (SCR N) - B Bet
MIL / WAS (SCR N) - B Bet
BAL / CWS (SCR Y) - A Bet
CLE / KC (SCR N) - A Bet
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