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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: T/R Home/Away Power Rankings
literato
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literato
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#201
Posted: 8/4/2013 11:21:20 AM

hello

file request an update with a file named "change a 2014.xlsm"
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#202
Posted: 8/5/2013 6:41:03 AM
Beats me...that is similar to an excel that I'm preparing for next year.  But my TR copy doesn't do that.  Just ignore that.
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#203
Posted: 8/5/2013 6:42:37 AM
Plays for 8/5
Official:
Boston

Unofficial:
Cleveland 
New York
Boston
Texas
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#204
Posted: 8/6/2013 6:51:02 AM
Plays for 8/5
Official:
Boston Loss

Unofficial:
Cleveland Loss
New York Loss
Boston Loss
Texas Won

Plays for 8/6
Official:
Boston B
Pittsburgh

Unofficial:
Cleveland B
New York B
Boston B
Chc
Pittsburgh

The other games are 2g series

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#205
Posted: 8/7/2013 7:39:00 AM
Plays for 8/6
Official:
Boston Won
Pittsburgh Won

Unofficial:
Cleveland Loss
New York Loss
Boston Won
Chc Loss
Pittsburgh Won

The other games are 2g series

Plays for 8/7
Official:
none

Unofficial:
Cleveland C
New York C
Chc B





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#206
Posted: 8/7/2013 8:08:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by literato:

hello

file request an update with a file named "change a 2014.xlsm"

I tried to answer your PM question, but I can't cause I don't have you as a friend.  I put in a request to you to add as a friend.
  
To answer your question, baseball was easier to figure out cause the games are grouped in a series, so if you lose the first game, you replay the same team to get another chance at winning as the rankings are based on a spread against the two teams.  
With NBA, NHL, and NFL, you play a team once and then move on, so you really don't have another shot at the same team.  I haven't back tested anything yet, I got a promotion at work and now I'm working about 15 hours a week more, plus it's at the time I normally relax and do my sports stuff.  
I was thinking of doing it for NBA, but stressing that it wasn't backtested totally  I have a few more months to try and get an indication on whether it's worth doing.
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#207
Posted: 8/8/2013 11:27:48 AM
Boston is an A game on the unofficial for 8/8.  cubs won, so no C bet there.  the other 2 games were c bets so win or lose, they're done. will update later
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#208
Posted: 8/8/2013 12:06:52 PM
For those that follow, I have started a backtest for NFL using the same rankings type as this thread's official plays, and also for the 'New Rankings' predictive score.  Those that have been to the web site will know what I mean.  
I plan on going and doing a backtest on the home/away as this thread's unofficial plays are but being that the predictive scores have less losses, I thought I'd start there first.  I will let you know, on this thread, how it's going, but for the plays themselves, I will start a new NFL T/R thread.
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#209
Posted: 8/8/2013 4:03:03 PM
First year finished, 2003, and results not encouraging, even with a few filters.  The only thing I got out of it was on the "Official" rankings was that the Monday night games went 12-3, with no filters and the "New" type went 10-4 without filters.  The "New" rankings don't have a ranking the first week, and there was one push on Monday night.
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#210
Posted: 8/9/2013 6:38:47 AM
Plays for 8/8
Official:
none

Unofficial:
Boston Loss


Plays for 8/9
Official:
Det
Cin
Atl
Tex
StL

Unofficial:
Bos B
Cle
Det
Was
Oak
Cin
Atl
Min
Tex
Stl
Pit
Sea
Tb
Bal
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#211
Posted: 8/9/2013 6:41:21 AM
ignore above plays
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#212
Posted: 8/9/2013 6:47:30 AM
Plays for 8/8
Official:
none

Unofficial:
Boston Loss


Plays for 8/9
Official:
Det
Cin
Atl
Tex
StL
Pit
Bal

Unofficial:
Bos B
Cle
Det
Cin
Atl
Tex
Stl
Pit
Tb
Bal

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#213
Posted: 8/10/2013 11:34:28 AM
What's your record for official plays? No losses yet?
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#214
Posted: 8/10/2013 2:20:45 PM
Since I made the filter, yes, one loss.  The second line shows the line as if I started the thread on April 29th.
Just checked, the first line are the plays from June 21st, to August 4th (I haven't the time to update yet)


Official YTD  (Thread Only) 41-1 28.92u
Official YTD:  108-5 74.69u
Unofficial YTD (Thread Only) 135-12 33.98u
Unofficial YTD 211-18 84.82u

Post #91 for the difference in Official/Unofficial

*Based on Covers' closing line

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#215
Posted: 8/10/2013 2:25:02 PM
Plays for 8/9
Official:
Det Loss
Cin Won
Atl Won
Tex Won
StL Loss
Pit Loss
Bal Won

Unofficial:
Bos B Loss
Cle Loss
Det Loss
Cin Win
Atl Win
Tex Win
Stl Loss
Pit Loss
Tb Loss
Bal Win



Plays for 8/10
Official:
Det B
StL B
Pit B


Unofficial:
Bos C
Cle B
Det B
Stl B
Pit B
Tb B




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#216
Posted: 8/10/2013 2:40:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Since I made the filter, yes, one loss.  The second line shows the line as if I started the thread on April 29th.
Just checked, the first line are the plays from June 21st, to August 4th (I haven't the time to update yet)


Official YTD  (Thread Only) 41-1 28.92u
Official YTD:  108-5 74.69u
Unofficial YTD (Thread Only) 135-12 33.98u
Unofficial YTD 211-18 84.82u

Post #91 for the difference in Official/Unofficial

*Based on Covers' closing line

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing



Is this your first year tracking this system? Looks good.
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#217
Posted: 8/10/2013 3:21:12 PM
also forgot to ask. your records above are just reflecting a chase on the ML for a 3 game chase right?

your records don't include all the RL stuff mentioned on the first page of this thread right?
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#218
Posted: 8/10/2013 7:22:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

also forgot to ask. your records above are just reflecting a chase on the ML for a 3 game chase right?

your records don't include all the RL stuff mentioned on the first page of this thread right?
Yeah, this is a 3g ML chase.  The RL didn't seem to work, and being that it wasn't fully backtested, I abandoned it.  There has to be a filter.  
Right now, I'm using a filter for all my plays on the percentage of wins that a team has on winning at the run line.  My base is 75%.  If a team scores 2+ runs more than the other team in 75% of their WINS, I will play the RL along with the ML, unless there's too much juice. Then it's just the RL

To your first question, yeah it's my first year.  It's actually my first year wagering on MLB.
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#219
Posted: 8/10/2013 7:26:46 PM
Nice. Good stuff man
Posted using a mobile device.
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#220
Posted: 8/11/2013 12:37:46 PM
Plays for 8/10
Official:
Det Win
StL Loss
Pit Loss


Unofficial:
Bos Win
Cle Loss
Det Win
Stl Loss
Pit Loss
Tb Loss

Plays for 8/11
Official:
StL C
Pit C


Unofficial:
Cle C
Stl C
Pit C
Tb C

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#221
Posted: 8/11/2013 2:21:33 PM
Through August 8th (2 losses on Unofficial, this series), does not count any ongoing series already won Friday or Saturday this past weekend.


Official YTD 43-1 +30.92u (Thread Only)
Official YTD:  110-5, +76.69u
Unofficial YTD 139-14 24.66u (Thread Only)
Unofficial YTD 215-20 +75.5u

Post #91 for the difference in Official/Unofficial

*Based on Covers' closing line

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#222
Posted: 8/12/2013 7:08:33 AM
Plays for 8/11
Official:
StL Win
Pit LOSS  


Unofficial:
Cle Win
Stl Win
Pit Loss
Tb Loss

Plays for 8/12
Official:
Atl
Det
Kc


Unofficial:
Atl
Cin
Det
Kc
Cle
Col
Bal


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#223
Posted: 8/12/2013 7:17:19 AM
Through 8/11

Official YTD  (Thread Only) 49-2 25.40u
Official YTD:  116-6 71.17u
Unofficial YTD (Thread Only) 147-16 12.34u
Unofficial YTD 223-22 63.18u

Post #91 for the difference in Official/Unofficial

*Based on Covers' closing line

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 5

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#224
Posted: 8/14/2013 6:46:56 AM
Being this wasn't fully backtested, and with the loss of Pittsburgh last week and Detroit going to a game C today....I'm going to call it a season.  If anyone wants to continue posting the plays or following through with the spreadsheet, go ahead.
We'll do this all again, next year.  I will have it fully backtested and I will start it checking from the beginning of the season to the end, to see if we can start earlier and go later.
I will check on how the -1.5rl does.
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#225
Posted: 8/14/2013 6:53:23 AM
I have completed a year's input for NFL with the rankings from TR in 2003, and I haven't gotten much except for that Monday Night went 12-3 with one push.  I'm halfway through 2012 and no filter seems to work from one week to next.  I have a couple more ideas to check.  If these don't work, I'm moving on to NBA, I know of a couple of systems that work there, I just have to jog my memory on how it goes
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