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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: T/R Home/Away Power Rankings
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
BuckeyeKaptn
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#76
Posted: 6/16/2013 11:50:11 AM
Plays for 6/16

Cws C
Nyy C
Oak C
Az  C
quote
JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#77
Posted: 6/16/2013 12:00:44 PM
You left Tex off?
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#78
Posted: 6/16/2013 12:35:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

You left Tex off?

Tex was a C bet yesterday, as far as I go, although they have an excellent pitcher going today and I might play it anyway.  
I'm going back and looking at some filters that would take out some of these losses.  I found one, but it would take out even more wins.  I'm going to try only 2g plays like the system one you post, pitcher filters.  
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#79
Posted: 6/16/2013 12:37:05 PM
I don't get this.  Nyy has a higher RPI, better pitcher than LAA by Sagarin, higher T/R line, but are dogs @ +129.  Ughh
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#80
Posted: 6/16/2013 2:52:24 PM
BK, remember that Vegas generally set the odds not on who they think is better or worse, but so that they receive even public betting on both sides because they make 10% from every bet.
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#81
Posted: 6/16/2013 4:51:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hardyvault:

BK, remember that Vegas generally set the odds not on who they think is better or worse, but so that they receive even public betting on both sides because they make 10% from every bet.
Yeah, that's what I meant but didn't say.  There have been reports that except for Cano, they suck so the crowd is following that.  Which is good cause I bet Nyy.
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#82
Posted: 6/17/2013 4:28:37 PM
6/17
St. Louis Cardinals
Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants

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#83
Posted: 6/17/2013 10:17:23 PM
Tomorrow and Wednesday, I'll update the scorecard with the right figures and also will be back testing a number of filters.  I don't want to just throw a couple out without checking first.
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#84
Posted: 6/18/2013 6:46:47 AM
6/17
St. Louis Cardinals  Won
Atlanta Braves  Won
Arizona Diamondbacks  Loss
San Francisco Giants   Loss

6/18
Az B
SF B
Mil A

Nyy is a 2g series...no play
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#85
Posted: 6/18/2013 1:08:19 PM
Group Jun 6/7 11-1 +5.92u
YTD 11-1  +5.92u
(Hou -7.00u) 

Group Jun 10/11 9-2 -7.68u
YTD 20-3 -1.76
(Nyy -7.00, Atl -10.62)

Group Jun 13/14 12-3 -22.78u
YTD 32-6 -24.54u
(Tex -15.20, Cws -13.35, Az -7.44)

It'd be nice if good teams played like good teams (BOLD)
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#86
Posted: 6/18/2013 1:17:37 PM
6/18 plays
Arizona Diamondbacks  B
San Francisco Giants  B

Milwaukee Brewers A

YTD 32-6 -22.54u

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 3

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#87
Posted: 6/19/2013 7:45:13 AM
6/19 Play
Milwaukee Brewers B


6/18 plays
Arizona Diamondbacks  B  Won +290
San Francisco Giants  B  Won +208

Milwaukee Brewers A Loss -111

YTD 36-6 -18.67u  1 pending
Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 3

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

Before this group:
YTD 32-6 -24.54u

quote
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#88
Posted: 6/19/2013 8:14:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Group Jun 6/7 11-1 +5.92u
YTD 11-1  +5.92u
(Hou -7.00u) 

Group Jun 10/11 9-2 -7.68u
YTD 20-3 -1.76
(Nyy -7.00, Atl -10.62)

Group Jun 13/14 12-3 -22.78u
YTD 32-6 -24.54u
(Tex -15.20, Cws -13.35, Az -7.44)



I found a filter that would have removed Nyy, Tex and Az plays out.  However, I only checked these losses, not all games played.  
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#89
Posted: 6/19/2013 1:34:16 PM
Have you tested T/R dif of > 1 to see if increasing the T/R dif used to determine bets increases or decreases the number of wins?

Also, what do you use as your determining factor on whether or not to bet the RRL's?
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#90
Posted: 6/19/2013 2:40:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mudnuckers:

Have you tested T/R dif of > 1 to see if increasing the T/R dif used to determine bets increases or decreases the number of wins?

Also, what do you use as your determining factor on whether or not to bet the RRL's?
First, I stopped the RRL backtest for now.  I wanted to find filters for the regular part...like what you suggested.  
To answer your question about increasing the number higher than 1....for the 12 losses, the average of the difference from the play's number and the opponent's is 2.8.  From a high of 5 to a low of 1.1.

However, I did find a filter that takes out 8 of the losses, and increases our units.  Read VVV
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#91
Posted: 6/19/2013 2:52:13 PM
I found a filter that takes out 8 of the losses...the MLB Team Predictive Power Rating:
http://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/ranking/predictive-power-ranking-by-team

Without the filter, YTD since Apr 29th:  133-12  +29.19u
With the filter, YTD since  Apr 29th:   64-4  +42.77

For each regular play as currently set up, check the new filter to see if the play is at least .9 or more difference.  .8 and less is negative units.

I will be updating the spreadsheet for the filter, along with the new back test.

Oh, 6/17-8 group's plays would have not included San Francisco (which won), and Milwaukee (which is on a B play).  
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#92
Posted: 6/19/2013 5:00:03 PM
Official:  No Plays
YTD:  64-4, +42.77u

Unofficial 6/19 Play

Milwaukee Brewers B

YTD 133-12 +29.19u  1 pending



Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

Before this group:
YTD 32-6 -24.54u (Thread only)

quote
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#93
Posted: 6/19/2013 5:03:36 PM
New Spreadsheet with both T/R (Unofficial) and T/R Filtered (Official).  RPI is still on there.  I updated the back test for RPI, T/R Unofficial and added the T/R Official 
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#94
Posted: 6/19/2013 7:15:56 PM
For those that download the new version, I might have set the OVER percentage to 50 (cell P2).  It should be 60.
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#95
Posted: 6/19/2013 11:10:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

For those that download the new version, I might have set the OVER percentage to 50 (cell P2).  It should be 60.


thanks for all the work you do buckeye keep posting the plays here and keep up the good work!
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BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#96
Posted: 6/20/2013 6:59:34 AM
Unofficial 6/19 Play

Milwaukee Brewers Won +211
YTD 37-6 -19.54u (Thread only)


20-Jun
Official:  
San Francisco

YTD:  64-4, +42.77u

Unofficial 6/19 Play
San Francisco
San Diego

YTD 134-12 +30.19u 


Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

Before this group:
YTD 37-6 -19.54u (Thread only)

quote
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#97
Posted: 6/20/2013 1:47:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stayeduptolate:



thanks for all the work you do buckeye keep posting the plays here and keep up the good work!
Thanx, I appreciate it.  I'm always looking for solid plays, systems etc. and also looking for input.
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#98
Posted: 6/21/2013 6:50:01 AM
20-Jun
Official:  
San Francisco Loss

Unofficial 6/20 Play
San Francisco  Loss
San Diego  Won


Today's Plays:
21-Jun
Official:
San Francisco B
Houston 
Atlanta
Oakland

Unofficial
San Francisco B
Houston 
Atlanta
Oakland
Cleveland
Baltimore
Kansas City
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

Before this group:
Official YTD 0-0 0u (Thread Only)
Official YTD:  64-4, +42.77u
Unofficial YTD 37-6 -19.54u (Thread only)
Unofficial YTD 13-12 +31.30u

quote
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#99
Posted: 6/21/2013 6:03:41 PM
Cancel that Houston being an official play.  Those of you that have Ver 4 will see that.  On my own personal copy, I copied a formula wrong, and it brought Houston up as an official play.  Houston is an unofficial play.
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BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#100
Posted: 6/22/2013 6:49:15 AM
21-Jun
Official:
San Francisco B Loss
Atlanta Loss
Oakland Won

Unofficial:
San Francisco B Loss
Houston Loss
Atlanta Loss
Oakland Won
Cleveland Won
Baltimore Loss
Kansas City Loss
Cincinnati Loss
Pittsburgh Won

Today's Plays:
22-Jun
Official:
San Francisco C
Atlanta C

Unofficial:
San Francisco C
Houston B
Atlanta B
Baltimore B
Kansas City B
Cincinnati B


Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 4

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

Before this group:
Official YTD 0-0 0u (Thread Only)
Official YTD:  64-4, +42.77u
Unofficial YTD 37-6 -19.54u (Thread only)
Unofficial YTD 13-12 +31.30u

quote
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