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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: T/R Home/Away Power Rankings
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 6/6/2013 5:24:23 PM
Version 2 is available, same link
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#27
Posted: 6/6/2013 8:13:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

For those of you who use the Covers Data 2 tab to track, and you're sick of scrolling down to the current date every day, here's the fix:

On the sheet, any tab click on VIEW, Click on View Macros (on right in 2013 version of Excel), Click on Covers (macro name) and then Edit.

You should have opened up a new window.  On the right pane you should see Covers Macro under Sub Covers ().  Go down to the 5th "End With". Below that should be Rows "("3:3") . Select"

3 rows below that is "Rows ("3:702")

Change the 702 to whatever row you want to hide to.  Click the Run button (arrow pointing to the right) and it will do it for you without updating the whole page.  Click the to right X to get out of that window.  Done.

Found another stupid mistake, just on Covers Data 2, not for anything else.
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#28
Posted: 6/6/2013 9:31:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


Found another stupid mistake, just on Covers Data 2, not for anything else.
Never mind, its fine.
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RommiRommi
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#29
Posted: 6/7/2013 2:57:46 AM
Today games?

ATL B
COL B

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#30
Posted: 6/7/2013 6:54:44 AM
Yesterdays  6/6
Oak Win (Lost both RLs)
Phi  Win (Won both RLs)
Col  Loss
Nyy  Win (Won both RLs)
Atl  Loss

Atl B on 6/7
Col B on 6/7

As far as the RLs, I'm not chasing RLs on a ML win, for example Oakland's win.  I am chasing RLs on ML losses....Col, Atl.  For the thread, I will be counting the RL from Oak as a loss


I will be making a set form for the plays and recap.
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#31
Posted: 6/7/2013 6:58:03 AM
Really quick today's plays

Atl B 
Col B 

A Plays:
Pitts (@2pm)
Det
Tex
Bos
Stl
Nym
Hou
Az
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#32
Posted: 6/7/2013 2:06:55 PM
6/6 ML Plays: YTD:  3-0...2 Pending.
Oak Win 
Phi  Win 
Col  Loss  B on 6/7
Nyy  Win 
Atl  Loss  B on 6/7


RL -1.5:  2-1...2 Pending
YTD 2-1 +2.15u

Oak Loss -1.00
Phi  Win +1.80
Nyy  Win +1.35

RL -2.5:   2-1...2 Pending
YTD 2-1 +3.70

Oak Loss -1.00
Phi  Win +2.65
Nyy  Win +2.05

RL Total units:  +5.85

*Units based on 5dimes, when I make my bets.  These are the odds I got, some lines may be the reduced juice.
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#33
Posted: 6/7/2013 2:10:21 PM
6/7 ML Plays: YTD:  3-0...2 Pending.
Atl B 
Col B 

A Plays:
Pitts (@2pm)
Det
Tex
Bos
Stl
Nym
Hou
Az

RL -1.5:  2-1...2 Pending
YTD 2-1 +2.15u


RL -2.5:   2-1...2 Pending
YTD 2-1 +3.70


RL Total units:  +5.85

*Units based on 5dimes, when I make my bets.  These are the odds I got, some lines may be the reduced juice.

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 2

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#34
Posted: 6/7/2013 2:15:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

6/6 ML Plays: YTD:  3-0...2 Pending.
Oak Win 
Phi  Win 
Col  Loss  B on 6/7
Nyy  Win 
Atl  Loss  B on 6/7


RL -1.5:  2-1...2 Pending
YTD 2-1 +2.15u

Oak Loss -1.00
Phi  Win +1.80
Nyy  Win +1.35

RL -2.5:   2-1...2 Pending
YTD 2-1 +3.70

Oak Loss -1.00
Phi  Win +2.65
Nyy  Win +2.05

RL Total units:  +5.85

*Units based on 5dimes, when I make my bets.  These are the odds I got, some lines may be the reduced juice.

If you don't chase RL losses on ML wins maybe you should adjust the unit sizes for ML and RL so if you win the ML but lose the RL you still are plus for the bet.

Example:

ML 1 Unit, RL (or RRL for dogs) .25 unit, -2.5 RL .25 units

this way in the above case you win .5 units on a ML win and RL and -2.5 RL loss.

Just a thought....
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#35
Posted: 6/7/2013 2:56:13 PM
I had given that thought, I think you or someone else mentioned it a day or so ago (which I forgot about when I made my wagers!).  I figure if I just keep each at 1 unit, people can see it as all bets being equal, and can adjust as they wish to a half unit or what they wish.  That said, the -2.5 RL took home the most units last night.  This is the test year, sorta kinda...see if we could make any filters etc, like UD to make it stronger.or open it up more, somehow.  Open to suggestions.
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#36
Posted: 6/7/2013 4:32:05 PM
I'm also going through a backtest through this season to see if chasing the RLs are worth it.
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#37
Posted: 6/7/2013 7:11:55 PM
Bos has a doubleheader tomorrow.  If a 1pm loss, chase at 7pm.  Nym currently don't have a doubleheader.  Check to see if one shows up on the schedule for Sunday before 1pm.  If there is, Nym is a play.  No play if not, as then it drops to a 2g series.  If anyone cares, Min/Was have a doubleheader for Sunday.
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#38
Posted: 6/7/2013 9:09:52 PM
YTD to 6/6 -1.5 & -2.5 RL plays.

Using today's approximate lines from Detroit at -210 ML, we have even money (+100) at -1.5 and +165 at -2.5.  Using these numbers, here's how the units come out against W/L as I don't chase a RL loss after a ML win (the play wins by 1 or 2).

RL -1.5 (+100)  is 68-36 w/l...+32u    65%
RL -2.5 (+165)  is 59-45 w/l...+52u.   56%

That's just using a -200ml favorite.  These ^^^ numbers are the low end of the profit margin.  Yesterday, I got Phi at +134ml,  -1.5 +190, -2.5 +265.  All 3 won.  5.89u

The system for the year at ML is 100/6 w/l, +50.93u via Covers closing line.  If I added correctly, 46 went to the B game (including tonight's two), 17 lost and went to the C Bet, which 6 lost.

A Bets:  60-46   56%
B Bets:  29-17   63%
C Bets:  11-6     64%

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#39
Posted: 6/8/2013 12:50:12 AM
do does it make sense to play all ml, rl -1.5 and rl -2.5 for the same to win one unit?
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#40
Posted: 6/8/2013 7:04:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 730champ:

do does it make sense to play all ml, rl -1.5 and rl -2.5 for the same to win one unit?

That's what I do, however, it's solely up to you.  The run lines winning percentage isn't as great. Last night, -2.5 lost -1.8 units.  The way I look at it, I play all RL plays as a whole, one emmcompassing play, so to speak.  With all plays, not including the chase plays (ML losses that continue today), the night was up 2.5 units.  I can go more into it later.
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#41
Posted: 6/8/2013 7:04:35 AM
6/7 ML Plays: 5-0…….. YTD:  8-0…3 Pending.
Atl B LOSS C on 6/8
Col B WIN

A Plays:
Pitts WIN
Det WIN
Tex LOSS B on 6/8
Bos PPD Doubleheader 6/8
Stl  WIN
Nym  PPD, No longer a play
Hou LOSS B on 6/8
Az  WIN

RL -1.5:  4-1  +4.30u…….YTD 6-1 +6.45u 3 Pending
YTD 2-1 +2.15u
Atl B LOSS C on 6/8
Col B LOSS -100

A Plays:
Pitts WIN  +135
Det WIN  +100
Tex LOSS B on 6/8
Bos PPD Doubleheader 6/8
Stl  WIN  +130
Nym  PPD, No longer a play
Hou LOSS B on 6/8
Az  WIN  +165


RL -2.5:  1-4 -1.80u…….YTD 3-5 +1.90u 3 Pending
YTD 2-1 +3.70
Atl B LOSS C on 6/8
Col B Loss -100

A Plays:
Pitts LOSS -100
Det LOSS -100
Tex LOSS B on 6/8
Bos PPD Doubleheader 6/8
Stl  WIN +220
Nym  PPD, No longer a play
Hou LOSS B on 6/8
Az  LOSS -100


RL Total units:  +8.35

*Units based on 5dimes, when I make my bets.  These are the odds I got, some lines may be the reduced juice.

Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 2

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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#42
Posted: 6/8/2013 7:06:48 AM
Games today 6/8
BOS A and B (if needed, hope not)
Atl C
Tex B
Hou B
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#43
Posted: 6/8/2013 8:37:52 AM
thanks for updating buckeye nice to see where we are at based on all three odds
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#44
Posted: 6/8/2013 1:53:48 PM
I'm torned between your system and the dog efficient system.....What would you do?  Like yesterday, between St Louis and Cin.  Then Arizona and SF...
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#45
Posted: 6/8/2013 4:17:53 PM
I guess, check pitchers w/l, L10 etc.  In a basketball forum, a few people would say that if you have the opposites for 2 different systems, you play them both!!!  That is with spreads too, so you would always lose on juice.  "I always play every play!!"  I never played the two opposing plays. 
In this case, do what I said above or just don't play either.  I'm finally almost to the point where I have everything on my spreadsheets set, that I can check out pitchers etc, before betting.  By next week, for sure.

It looks like we have
Boston on a B play at 7pm.  Not yet official.  One inning to go.
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#46
Posted: 6/8/2013 5:09:03 PM
Boston on a B play at 7pm
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#47
Posted: 6/8/2013 10:17:03 PM
Hou and Tex both C for tomorrow.  Pending on Bos but they're winning 7-2.  This is in case I don't get up in time.
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#48
Posted: 6/9/2013 11:16:55 AM
So far this group of plays are up 3.5 units.  I need do more of a backtest on the RLs.  The ML plays are 8-0 with 2 pending...Tex and Hou.  The RLs are negative units.  Filters need to be found.  If anyone has ideas, it would be great.  DeGen, your idea of .5 units would have minimalized the losses.

I will uploading a new version of the spreadsheet.  In it on the summary tab, next to the RPI plays, will be the same for the T/R plays.  Also on it will be for Over/Under plays, if you follow such plays.  These 2 are also adjustable like the RPI plays.  I'd like to thank DeGen for all this.  I was able to dissect his spreadsheets to come up with this.  Also, this format is his original 2013 RPI sheet.  Give credit where it's due.
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#49
Posted: 6/9/2013 11:46:14 AM
Buckeye:

One filter that I already established for myself is that if a team qualifies they have to have a record above .500.  Thus, I didn't bet the Houston/KC series.  The whole idea to me is to bet on superior teams against crap teams.

I am however on the C game today with Texas.  I will be playing Texas +1.5 today as they are a dog.  As I mentioned before, I play all dogs +1.5.  Is it more expensive up front...of course it is. However, it saves your behind more often then not, prevents losses and avoids many C plays.  

For example; Atlanta won last night 2-1 in a nail biter on the C game.  If you had played it the night before taking Atlanta +1.5 you had already won on the B game and weren't sweating it.

Hope this is of help.  I am still working on more filters and back testing myself.  Good luck to you and everyone else trying this system!   


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#50
Posted: 6/9/2013 12:36:11 PM
6/9 Plays
Tex B 
Hou B

6/8 ML Plays: 2-0…….. YTD:  10-0…2 Pending.

Atl C Win
Bos A Loss
Bos B Win
Tex B Loss C on 6/9
Hou B Loss C on 6/9


RL -1.5:  1-1  =.25u…….YTD 7-3 -1.3 2 Pending

Atl C Loss -100
Bos A Loss
Bos B Win +125
Tex B Loss C on 6/9
Hou B Loss C on 6/9


RL -2.5:  1-1 +.9u…….YTD 4-6 -5.2u 2 Pending

Atl C Loss -100
Bos A Loss on 6/8
Bos B Win +190
Tex B Loss C on 6/9
Hou B Loss C on 6/9


RL Total units:  -6.5u
Plays Total units: +3.5


*Units based on 5dimes, when I make my bets.  These are the odds I got, some lines may be the reduced juice.
Link to current spreadsheet:  Version 2

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZblZxaktiYXNIelE/edit?usp=sharing

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