O/U Park Factor system 2013

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: O/U Park Factor system 2013
730champ PM 730champ
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Posted: 6/4/2013 5:47:06 PM
lets get it
730champ PM 730champ
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Posted: 6/4/2013 10:06:34 PM
damn looks like could of used that detroit over and kc under
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/4/2013 11:30:06 PM

Tuesday 6/4 results:

Official plays:

Col/Cin Over B game WIN

Balt/Hou Over A game Loss - B game Wed

NYM/Wash Over A game Loss - B game Wed

Record: 5-0

A: 3-4

B: 1-1

C: 1-0

Air1 PM Air1
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Posted: 6/5/2013 10:43:17 AM
Hey Dan, when you backtested this last season, how did you factor in the pushes?
Why not track the system 2 ways?
V1 dont count the pushes at all
V2 calc the % including a pushes.

BuckeyeKaptn PM BuckeyeKaptn
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Posted: 6/5/2013 12:23:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:

Hey Dan, when you backtested this last season, how did you factor in the pushes?
Why not track the system 2 ways?
V1 dont count the pushes at all
V2 calc the % including a pushes.

That's how i play it, pushes are a non factor. I had Detroit cause of it
mojator PM mojator
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Posted: 6/5/2013 1:36:57 PM
Hi, we take open or close total?
Open is 7,5 - close 8 = we take ...?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/5/2013 3:57:46 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by mojator:

Hi, we take open or close total?
Open is 7,5 - close 8 = we take ...?

I'm getting 7.5 on NY Mets/Was and 9 on Hou/Balt. I guess bet what your book offers. I'm using these lines as official lines.

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/5/2013 8:56:52 PM
And that clears the board fellas :)
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DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/5/2013 8:58:23 PM
Ooops - hope I didn't jinx it - looked at wrong game
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Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/5/2013 9:36:55 PM

Wednesday 6/5 results:

Despite Degen trying to jinx it...

Balt/Hou Over - B game WIN

NYM/Wash Over  - B game WIN

Record: 7-0

A: 3-4

B: 3-1

C: 1-0

For Thursday there is one play - Atlanta @ LAD OVER.

I won't be able to post in the morning so doing it now.

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/5/2013 9:43:51 PM
You know what I was thinking maybe look at O/U % vs a team, O/U % by pitcher, and O/U % by series (meaning if a 3 game series has 2 games go over then it's an OVER series

Thoughts?

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DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/5/2013 9:45:17 PM
We would use the home away ou % as well as the other 3 to determine series plays
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730champ PM 730champ
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Posted: 6/5/2013 9:54:47 PM
nice wins guys
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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Posted: 6/5/2013 10:40:12 PM
System off to good start , me likely!    
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/7/2013 1:02:18 AM

Thursday 6/6 results:

ATL/LAD Over Loss on A game. B game Friday

For Friday it looks like Bal/TB Over and Pitts/Cubs Over (along with ATL/LAD B game Over)

Record: 7-0

A: 3-5

B: 3-1  (Atl/LAD pending)

C: 1-0

RommiRommi PM RommiRommi
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Posted: 6/7/2013 2:47:18 AM
Bal/TB and Pitts/Cubs goes to A?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/7/2013 12:07:37 PM

Confirming Friday plays:

Atl/LAD Over B game

Balt/TB Over A game

Pitts/Cubs Over A game

If anyone runs the spreadsheet they will see some plays under the No Push data column, but remember there needs to be at least a 3 game difference in wins/losses. Take Clev for example, they are 13-11 with overs, so they don't qualify.

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/7/2013 3:51:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

If anyone runs the spreadsheet they will see some plays under the No Push data column, but remember there needs to be at least a 3 game difference in wins/losses. Take Clev for example, they are 13-11 with overs, so they don't qualify.


Updated the spreadsheet to include the 3 game difference filter and uploaded a new version - still V2 (same link)


Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/8/2013 2:25:11 AM

Friday results:

ATL/LAD Over, lose on B game, go to C game Saturday

Balt/TB Over loses on A game, B game Saturday

Pitts/Cubs Over loses on A game, B game Saturday

 

Record: 7-0

A: 3-7

B: 3-2

C: 1-0

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/9/2013 4:19:59 AM

Saturday results:

ATL/LAD Over, lose on C game, go to D game Sunday (yes D game)

Balt/TB Over loses on B game, C game Sunday

Pitts/Cubs Over wins on B game

Record: 8-0

A: 3-7

B: 4-3

C: 1-1 (Balt/TB pending)

D: 0-0 (Atl/LAD pending)

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/9/2013 5:40:44 PM

Sunday results:

ATL/LAD Over, WIN on D game

Balt/TB Over WIN on C game.

Need to get some more A game wins.

 

Record: 10-0

A: 3-7

B: 4-3

C: 2-1

D: 1-0

stayeduptolate PM stayeduptolate
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Posted: 6/9/2013 5:55:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Sunday results:

ATL/LAD Over, WIN on D game

Balt/TB Over WIN on C game.

Need to get some more A game wins.

 

Record: 10-0

A: 3-7

B: 4-3

C: 2-1

D: 1-0



hopefully when we get some plays tom! we will get a bunch of a wins!
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 6/10/2013 1:49:37 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

You know what I was thinking maybe look at O/U % vs a team, O/U % by pitcher, and O/U % by series (meaning if a 3 game series has 2 games go over then it's an OVER series

Thoughts?

Had been giving this some thought so I ran a test. If a series went 2 games Over, 1 Under it counted as a win for the Over for both the away and home team. In the case of a 4 game series I only counted the first 3 games unless there was a push, then game 4 was counted. All 2 game series were not counted unless both games were either over or under.

Collected data in April and started plays in May. What I did was add the 2 teams records based on Home and away. If there was at least a 3 game spread it was a play. For example if Wash was 4-4 as an away team and Hou was 5-1 Over at home we had a combined 9-5 overs, so a play.

Record through Sunday is 61-4. Based on -110 lines the 4 losses were 8.5 units each (rounding), 34 total. 61 wins - 34 losses is 27 unit profit so far.

Using the above rules Monday plays would be:

Chase to win 1 game

LAA/Balt Over

Bos/TB Over

Tor/ChiSox Under

Det/KC Under

Cle/Tex Under

AZ/LAD Over

Atl/SD Over

Interestingly enough, there are no series that start on Monday that qualify for the O/U system in this thread

 

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 6/10/2013 11:57:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Had been giving this some thought so I ran a test. If a series went 2 games Over, 1 Under it counted as a win for the Over for both the away and home team. In the case of a 4 game series I only counted the first 3 games unless there was a push, then game 4 was counted. All 2 game series were not counted unless both games were either over or under.

Collected data in April and started plays in May. What I did was add the 2 teams records based on Home and away. If there was at least a 3 game spread it was a play. For example if Wash was 4-4 as an away team and Hou was 5-1 Over at home we had a combined 9-5 overs, so a play.

Record through Sunday is 61-4. Based on -110 lines the 4 losses were 8.5 units each (rounding), 34 total. 61 wins - 34 losses is 27 unit profit so far.

Using the above rules Monday plays would be:

Chase to win 1 game

LAA/Balt Over

Bos/TB Over

Tor/ChiSox Under

Det/KC Under

Cle/Tex Under

AZ/LAD Over

Atl/SD Over

Interestingly enough, there are no series that start on Monday that qualify for the O/U system in this thread

 


Nice Dan - are you playing these or just testing it out?  Are you going to track it separately or use as a filter for the original system?
stayeduptolate PM stayeduptolate
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Posted: 6/10/2013 12:11:24 PM
hey guys where is the excel sheet for this btw Awesome system!!
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