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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: O/U Park Factor system 2013
JEFFTHEHAT
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#26
Posted: 6/3/2013 11:20:13 AM
Dan, sent to long Pm's awaiting your thoughts. Thx for your time.
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#27
Posted: 6/3/2013 3:44:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Sunday results:

Tor/SD wins on the C game.

Record: 3-0

A: 2-1

B: 0-1

C: 1-0

For Monday 6/3:

Col 59.3% @ Cincy 59.3% Over

Oak 63.3% @ Mil 65.5% Over

For Tuesday 6/4:

Tampa 56% @ Detroit 64% Over

Minn 55.5% @ KC 56.5% Under

Balt 67.8% @ Hou 62.1 % Over

Mets 68% @ Wash 58.3% Over



DanRules - so you know what I do - I automate things.  So here is the link 

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbcTRRaHNVZ2NnUVU/edit?usp=sharing


Have a question:

1) How come CWS 60% vs SEA 56% is not an UNDER play





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#28
Posted: 6/3/2013 4:13:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:



DanRules - so you know what I do - I automate things.  So here is the link 

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbcTRRaHNVZ2NnUVU/edit?usp=sharing


Have a question:

1) How come CWS 60% vs SEA 56% is not an UNDER play





Degen, I'll take a look at the spreadsheet in alittle bit, have some work stuff to do. I hate when work stuff gets in the way of gambling. lol

For Seattle, I have them at 12 unders, 11 overs at home so 52.2%. Not sure where the 56% is coming from.

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#29
Posted: 6/3/2013 4:22:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Degen, I'll take a look at the spreadsheet in alittle bit, have some work stuff to do. I hate when work stuff gets in the way of gambling. lol

For Seattle, I have them at 12 unders, 11 overs at home so 52.2%. Not sure where the 56% is coming from.


Even when you don't even look at my spreadsheets - you find bugs - LOL - yeah was an error in my formula - you're right - download latest version (same link)
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#30
Posted: 6/3/2013 4:34:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:


Even when you don't even look at my spreadsheets - you find bugs - LOL - yeah was an error in my formula - you're right - download latest version (same link)

Hilarious. I'll check it out in a bit. Hoping this is much easier than me tracking manually. Thanks!

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#31
Posted: 6/3/2013 5:02:03 PM
Not to be picky, Degen, but is there a way to add a page to track the results similar to the RPI spreadsheet you have?

Thanks!
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#32
Posted: 6/3/2013 6:45:35 PM
Dan is there any correlation to the losses and the %? Is it safer playing only matchups that are 60% and up for both teams? less plays but less losses. just wonder if you come out with more units if you had less plays but higher chance to hit and raise unit size.
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#33
Posted: 6/3/2013 8:20:13 PM
Dan, where are you getting your percentages?  I've been using TeamRankings O/U trends.  It's close to yours, same plays.  I was just curious.
DeGen....
Wow, this is taking forever to update!!!  Well, from memory....
you have the 2 numbers, one for over and one for under,(unless this update fixes it), that don't add up to 100% or close to it (due to any pushes)...
Okay, the update is done, I see it now.  Where do you pull the numbers from? 
.
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#34
Posted: 6/3/2013 8:26:09 PM
I pull them from Covers - not sure where Dan pulls them from
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#35
Posted: 6/3/2013 9:02:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Dan, where are you getting your percentages?  I've been using TeamRankings O/U trends.  It's close to yours, same plays.  I was just curious.
DeGen....
Wow, this is taking forever to update!!!  Well, from memory....
you have the 2 numbers, one for over and one for under,(unless this update fixes it), that don't add up to 100% or close to it (due to any pushes)...
Okay, the update is done, I see it now.  Where do you pull the numbers from? 
.

I've kept track of the over unders on my own spreadsheet. I use the lines I've been getting from Station casions which is where I ahve my online account. So we could have a game or two where one of us got a Push while the other had the O/U. With as few games as we have had, that could move the % a few points.

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#36
Posted: 6/3/2013 9:20:06 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

Dan is there any correlation to the losses and the %? Is it safer playing only matchups that are 60% and up for both teams? less plays but less losses. just wonder if you come out with more units if you had less plays but higher chance to hit and raise unit size.

I didn't keep track of the % of each team when played. I should have done that. As we get further into the season we won't see many teams at all with 60% (maybe the Pirates under at home). I'll track that moving forward and also figure out the plays that I did earlier and report back my findings.

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#37
Posted: 6/3/2013 9:20:40 PM
I have runs scored as well as covers closing total in the covers data tab - I could calculate over under % with teams that beat the total by 2 or more - thoughts?
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#38
Posted: 6/3/2013 9:31:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

I have runs scored as well as covers closing total in the covers data tab - I could calculate over under % with teams that beat the total by 2 or more - thoughts?

I would not be opposed to that.

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#39
Posted: 6/3/2013 10:07:28 PM

Monday 6/3 results:

Oak/Mil wins on the A game

Col/Cin loses on A game and goes to B game Tuesday.

Record: 4-0

A: 3-2

B: 0-1

C: 1-0

For Tuesday 6/4:

Tampa 56% @ Detroit 64% Over

Minn 55.5% @ KC 56.5% Under

Balt 67.8% @ Hou 62.1 % Over

Mets 68% @ Wash 58.3% Over

Col/Cin B game Over

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#40
Posted: 6/4/2013 4:28:23 AM
wonder if there is an angle to see how a team is hitting in their last 5 or 3 games or something... or against righties or lefties.. probably too much stuff to figure out
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#41
Posted: 6/4/2013 11:58:35 AM
So I uploaded a new version of the spreadsheet (V2) - SAME LINK

I added the ability to add your bets to the BET TRACKER tab and I added 2 columns i'm calling OVER EFF and UNDER EFF.  I put a little explanation on the spreadsheet but basically it's how efficient is the team at beating the total (home / away) by 2 or more runs

Might be helpful might not.

Note - that my spreadsheet missed Minn 55.5% @ KC 56.5% Under as a play because MIN comes up as 53.85% from my numbers from covers.

Dan Rules - how are you calculating OVER% and UNDER%? do you factor in pushes in the numerator or denominator?


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#42
Posted: 6/4/2013 12:13:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

So I uploaded a new version of the spreadsheet (V2) - SAME LINK

I added the ability to add your bets to the BET TRACKER tab and I added 2 columns i'm calling OVER EFF and UNDER EFF.  I put a little explanation on the spreadsheet but basically it's how efficient is the team at beating the total (home / away) by 2 or more runs

Might be helpful might not.

Note - that my spreadsheet missed Minn 55.5% @ KC 56.5% Under as a play because MIN comes up as 53.85% from my numbers from covers.

Dan Rules - how are you calculating OVER% and UNDER%? do you factor in pushes in the numerator or denominator?


Thanks for the new sheet. I have not been factoring Pushes at all, been treating them as a non-game. The more I think about that, it's probably the wrong way to go. Are you figuring it into the percentages just as a tie would lower a winning %?

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#43
Posted: 6/4/2013 12:43:07 PM

Tuesday plays:

With Degen's spreadsheet, 3 plays that I had were filtered out using the Covers lines and factoring pushes. Since I do not factor pushes into the % and I use my local lines, any play that I have that is filtered out by the spreadsheet, I will make as unofficial plays and track seperately. Hope it's not too confusing.

Official plays:

Col/Cin  Over B game

Balt/Hou Over A game

 

Official Record: 4-0

A: 3-2

B: 0-1

C: 1-0

Unoffical Record

0-0

Tuesday plays:

Tampa/Detroit Over A Game

Minn/KC  Under A game

Mets/Wash Over A game

 

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#44
Posted: 6/4/2013 1:16:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Tuesday plays:

With Degen's spreadsheet, 3 plays that I had were filtered out using the Covers lines and factoring pushes. Since I do not factor pushes into the % and I use my local lines, any play that I have that is filtered out by the spreadsheet, I will make as unofficial plays and track seperately. Hope it's not too confusing.


I originally factored in pushes and came up with different percentages - it would obviously impact the % - then I took them out to mirror what you were doing.

How do you want to factor in pushes?  

Also - I don't think any games get filtered out using Covers data except the MIN/KC game - but if you factor in pushes than it's back in.

Let me know how you want me to calculate the OVER/UNDER %

right now - I am adding the pushes to BOTH the numerator and denominator
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#45
Posted: 6/4/2013 1:29:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:


I originally factored in pushes and came up with different percentages - it would obviously impact the % - then I took them out to mirror what you were doing.

How do you want to factor in pushes?  

Also - I don't think any games get filtered out using Covers data except the MIN/KC game - but if you factor in pushes than it's back in.

Let me know how you want me to calculate the OVER/UNDER %

right now - I am adding the pushes to BOTH the numerator and denominator

I think factoring pushes is a good way to go. It will result in fewer plays but most likely stronger plays. On a 3 game chase if game 1 is a push, I end the chase (no 2 game chases). If game 2 is a push we are down to a 2 game chase (1 and 3), so accounting for pushes is needed IMO as they don't help us.  A team that is 14-11-1 should have an over % of 53.8% which accurately reflects 14 overs in 26 games.

There were a couple of games that Covers had as a push that I had as either an over or under. Covers might have had 8 as the number while my book had 7.5 or 8.5.

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#46
Posted: 6/4/2013 2:12:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I think factoring pushes is a good way to go. It will result in fewer plays but most likely stronger plays. On a 3 game chase if game 1 is a push, I end the chase (no 2 game chases). If game 2 is a push we are down to a 2 game chase (1 and 3), so accounting for pushes is needed IMO as they don't help us.  A team that is 14-11-1 should have an over % of 53.8% which accurately reflects 14 overs in 26 games.

There were a couple of games that Covers had as a push that I had as either an over or under. Covers might have had 8 as the number while my book had 7.5 or 8.5.


Sounds good - I added another column to the spreadsheet that displays the plays not factoring in PUSH games - this way you can see the difference.

Same Link
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#47
Posted: 6/4/2013 2:35:13 PM

Ok, sorry to do this guys but after a few back and forths with Degen regarding how to handle pushes, had to make some changes. I'm scrapping unoffical plays. I will be looking at the push data and making a determination if a series is an offical play or not. Washington and TB are good examples. Considering the push data Wash is still at 53.85 and combined with Mets 64%, I'm making it an official play.

TB drops all the way down to 48.28% when pushes are factored - not a play.

Also, there needs to be at least a 3 game difference in O/U numbers so Minn at 12-14-1 is not a play. Sorry Degen for another filter.

Ok, enough talk, here are the official plays for Tuesday:

Official plays:

Col/Cin Over B game

Balt/Hou Over A game

NYM/Wash Over A game

Record: 4-0

A: 3-2

B: 0-1

C: 1-0

 

 

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#48
Posted: 6/4/2013 4:41:58 PM
just a thought, why not factor pushes as .5 instead of 1 in your formula?
so 14-11-1 would be 54.9% instead of 53.8
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#49
Posted: 6/4/2013 5:12:58 PM
14-11 is 56% to start with what am I missing?
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#50
Posted: 6/4/2013 5:15:31 PM
Never mind you added the tie
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