O/U Park Factor system 2013

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 1 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: O/U Park Factor system 2013
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/30/2013 11:22:11 PM

Going to give this another try this year. We tracked this for a little while last year under a thread by Canned Goods titled O/U system.

I'm looking at each individual teams O/U record for both home and away. A play is triggered when both teams have a 54% or better record for either the Over or Under. We chase for the series.

Last year I tracked this for the entire year (starting May 1) and the system went 208-13, with 3 of those losses only being 2 games (push on game 2 or 3).

2012 record 208-13                                                                       A: 118-103                                                                                    B: 65-38                                                                                         C: 24-11                                                                                        D: 1-0

System chases +108.88 units

Overall: 208-152  (57.7%)

Note: I did not back test for prior years and the 2013 system is 16-1 so far. Will follow up this post with plays we can track starting on Friday.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/30/2013 11:23:35 PM

sorry for the formatting issue.

A 118-103

B 65-38

C 24-11

D 1-0

 

Riceboi PM Riceboi
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5371
 
Riceboi
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 5/30/2013 11:37:09 PM
so this is a four game chase or only if the series has 4 games does it become a four game chase?
Posted using a mobile device.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/30/2013 11:50:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

so this is a four game chase or only if the series has 4 games does it become a four game chase?

If it is a 4 game series, I will chase to a D game. Low juice makes it a little easier. Otherwise it is a 3 game chase per series. I do not play any 2 game series.

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1070
 
DegenGamble
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/31/2013 12:19:04 AM
How many systems are you playing Dan? Lol
Posted using a mobile device.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/31/2013 12:26:15 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

How many systems are you playing Dan? Lol

lol, it does seem like a lot. Actually just the RPI, this O/U one and some of the Dog picks.

The RPI is one I'll play every year and hopefully we continue to find good dog plays with the other systems. I debated on posting this one, but what the heck. I just hope people proceed with caution as this hasn't been tested too much.

stickbit PM stickbit
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 404
 
stickbit
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 5/31/2013 9:18:32 AM
Great work Dan! I'm in...I use labby lines so thinking I might chase b & c only on a single labby line. curious can you give me the a, b, c, breakdown for the 16-1 record this season? thanks! this will be fun.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/31/2013 11:53:16 AM

Sorry, the systems is 18-1 going into today. I missed two series when I was out of town. Here is the breakdown so far. I will start with a blank slate when I post picks today, not cool to have official results without posting. Not great numbers for A and B, but the system did get stronger last year as the season progressed. Hoping for the same this year.

A 10-9

B  4-5

C 4-0-1 (a push on C game resulted in a 2 game chase loss)

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/31/2013 12:03:09 PM

Here we go.

Hou 60.8% @ LAA 61.5% A game OVER 8.5

KC 61.5% @ Texas 60.8% A game UNDER 9.5

Tor 60.8% @ SD 56% A game OVER 8.5

BMoney2013 PM BMoney2013
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 19
 
BMoney2013
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 5/31/2013 12:54:03 PM
Hi Dan. Thanks for posting this system. I was looking at the numbers and I think the Dodgers 57.1% @ Rockies 55.5% to the UNDER would qualify.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/31/2013 1:10:06 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BMoney2013:

Hi Dan. Thanks for posting this system. I was looking at the numbers and I think the Dodgers 57.1% @ Rockies 55.5% to the UNDER would qualify.

I have the Rockies at 14-12 under at home, 53.8%. The difference is I had a Push on 4/7 since I got 10 at my sportsbook (Red Rock) while covers had 10.5. I've been using the lines at Red Rock since that is where I bet.

BMoney2013 PM BMoney2013
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 19
 
BMoney2013
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 5/31/2013 1:15:26 PM

Understood. Thanks Dan and good luck

JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 3843
 
JEFFTHEHAT
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 5/31/2013 1:56:11 PM
Therecisvhuge discrepancies in numbers , I use Vegas insider for year to date stats and it has 12 overs and 15 unders way diff than both of your guys stats 
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 3843
 
JEFFTHEHAT
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 5/31/2013 1:56:53 PM
Lol, well not way
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 3843
 
JEFFTHEHAT
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 5/31/2013 1:57:36 PM
Nevermind brain fart my bad
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/31/2013 2:29:13 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Nevermind brain fart my bad

No worries. The numbers you had were the same as what BMoney had, mine was off one due to the Push. With that in mind, you could certainly play the series for an under, but I'm not going to make it official for tracking purposes.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 6/1/2013 3:15:13 AM

Friday results:

Hou 60.8% @ LAA 61.5% A game OVER 8.5 WIN

KC 61.5% @ Texas 60.8% A game UNDER 9.5 WIN

Tor 60.8% @ SD 56% A game OVER 8.5 Loss

Record: 2-0

A: 2-1

B:          Tor/SD pending

C:

 

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 6/1/2013 12:13:31 PM
Saturday: Tor/SD Over 8 B game
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 6/2/2013 2:42:05 AM

Saturday 6/1 results:

Tor/SD lose on the B game and go to C game Sunday. Not how I wanted to start.

 

Record: 2-0

A: 2-1

B: 0-1

C:

JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 3843
 
JEFFTHEHAT
Participation Meter
Banned
Posted: 6/2/2013 10:33:06 PM
Dan add me as a friend I have a couple questions about Bettor2wins system. I also have something that might interest you that could add more than enough units to cover losses and add quite a few.
SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 275
 
SweetDickWormy
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 6/3/2013 12:25:22 AM
Game 3 winner!  Congrats ! 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 6/3/2013 12:43:03 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Dan add me as a friend I have a couple questions about Bettor2wins system. I also have something that might interest you that could add more than enough units to cover losses and add quite a few.

Accepted. Ask away.

730champ PM 730champ
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 16256
 
730champ
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 6/3/2013 12:54:20 AM
nice win
730champ PM 730champ
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 16256
 
730champ
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 6/3/2013 12:57:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

Dan add me as a friend I have a couple questions about Bettor2wins system. I also have something that might interest you that could add more than enough units to cover losses and add quite a few.



damn man share the wealth...  im just trying to make a dollar out of 15 cents..
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4453
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 6/3/2013 1:10:55 AM

Sunday results:

Tor/SD wins on the C game.

Record: 3-0

A: 2-1

B: 0-1

C: 1-0

For Monday 6/3:

Col 59.3% @ Cincy 59.3% Over

Oak 63.3% @ Mil 65.5% Over

For Tuesday 6/4:

Tampa 56% @ Detroit 64% Over

Minn 55.5% @ KC 56.5% Under

Balt 67.8% @ Hou 62.1 % Over

Mets 68% @ Wash 58.3% Over

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 1 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.