Messages

Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages Page 4 of 28 «  2 3 4 5 6   »
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Official (?) RPI 2013 system
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#76
Posted: 5/13/2013 4:41:11 PM
BigTen, you are right about the rl - just win baby. I didn't say I bet the rl, just that I couldn't blame others that do.
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#77
Posted: 5/13/2013 4:48:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hansivonmueller:

Shame about B2W not being around, but as with most things in life you need to move on. I will try to add my two bits worth if there appears to be an error.  This is early days, so there may be errors, but as the season progresses I think things will fall into place.  If the posting becomes too tedious and you need a break Dan, just let the people know.

I may ask for a little help coming up. I have to travel from Vegas to California for my daughter's college graduation. Not sure if I'll be able to track things for the series that start on Thursday May 23 and Friday May 24 through that weekend. Anyone want to volunteer now for these days?

Looking ahead the series that start on Monday May 27 are all 2 game series as are the following series on Wednesday May 29. That'll be interesting. teams will need to qualify for both for a play. Chance for some double dips though.

quote
Jattdoit send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
Jattdoit
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 137
Location: Nevada
#78
Posted: 5/13/2013 7:55:46 PM
Dan are we going to follow all of b2w rules in this thread.example of the one that states to avoid series where the two potential teams are going in opposite directions.the better team might be on a three game slide where as the team under .500 might be on a 3 game win streak? I just remember him mentioning that, and it might help later in the year when teams start to rest players

quote
DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
DegenGamble
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1052
Location: New Jersey
#79
Posted: 5/13/2013 9:07:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

Dan are we going to follow all of b2w rules in this thread.example of the one that states to avoid series where the two potential teams are going in opposite directions.the better team might be on a three game slide where as the team under .500 might be on a 3 game win streak? I just remember him mentioning that, and it might help later in the year when teams start to rest players


So I found B2W's rules from last year

MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012

 

MLB RPI system in a nutshell. The RPI tends to tighten as the season progresses, so post all star game I use different numbers.

1. This is a series chase. I DO NOT chase after a 3rd straight loss in a 4 game series. IDK why, but I don't. You can if you like.

2. How to pick series. Pre all star game: check the upcoming series. Check the ESPN RPI rankings.

If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase.

If any team is the home team and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team, take the home team for a series chase. In 2011 if we used 40 points as a home team we would have had an extra loss with the NYY at the Beg. of the season. 

Filters:

1. If the lower RPI has been playing significantly better baseball over the last week or so, do not play the series.

2. Losing streaks. Big losing streaks by better RPI team, dont play series.

3. Teams going in obvious opposite directions in the W/L column, I will take the series even if off a Point or max 2 on the rpi.

4. Injuries. Watch how the teams play for a few days then decide to take a series if a good player has been hurt. The Angels lost Kendry Morales and went on a 10 game winning streak two (2) years ago. Go figure, so watch.

5. Another note, in a 4 game series, if, and ONLY if the team you bet on for the series wins the FIRST game of a four game series, start the series over the next day as a new series. Basically, wwe would be banking they will win one of the next 3 as well.

6. New rule implemented last year: Do NOT take a team that is .500% or below no matter how far off the RPI is.  If we had used this rule last year we would have went undefeated. 

7. If team with higher RPI is playing BACK TO BACK TWO (2) game series, take the chase as if playing a 4 game series versus a lesser opponent.  Both teams MUST meet the RPI qualifications before the first game of the first 2 game series.

8. POST All STAR GAME RPI DIFFERENCE NEEDED IS: 35 Home and 42 for Visitor

Now here is the thing - the way we determined if 1) Opp is playing better baseball 2) RPI team is on a losing streak OR 3) Teams going in opposite directions in W/L column was to look at last 10 and and total wins

This is how we did it last year - Last year we set last 10 to >4 and >3 wins than opponent

I just looked at the 2013 sheet - and we have the filters set too low - we have it set to last 10>=3 and  win edge >=3

Maybe that's why we have been getting so many plays - well I can just tell you what was set up last year - you guys decide what you want to set the filters to.

Not sure where we got 4 and 3 from last year - I think B2W sent me a PM with what we should use - i'll see if I can dig it out.

Now let the swirl begin - i'm sure there will be many opinions on what thresholds to use.

quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#80
Posted: 5/14/2013 1:57:22 AM

Monday system results

3-1

Detroit WIN

KC WIN

Colorado Loss, B game Tuesday

STL WIN. Another A game Tuesday since it's a 4 game series

Record: 18-1

A: 13-7

B: 4-2  (Colo pending)

C: 1-1

quote
BookieCrusher88 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
BookieCrusher88
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1291
Location:
#81
Posted: 5/14/2013 6:30:06 AM
I believe we have the Yanks and Reds as official plays as well but correct me if I'm wrong.
quote
jerry18
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
jerry18
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 83
Location: Slovenia
#82
Posted: 5/14/2013 6:48:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

I believe we have the Yanks and Reds as official plays as well but correct me if I'm wrong.

true! 
quote
Jattdoit send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
Jattdoit
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 137
Location: Nevada
#83
Posted: 5/14/2013 12:02:45 PM
Question didnt the rockies only have a difference of 37 on the rpi vs. the cubs? or am i doing it wrong? if i did the math right then that series shouldnt have been a play?
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#84
Posted: 5/14/2013 12:20:02 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jattdoit:

Question didnt the rockies only have a difference of 37 on the rpi vs. the cubs? or am i doing it wrong? if i did the math right then that series shouldnt have been a play?

The rpi difference yesterday for the start of the series was 50, making them a play.

For today:

Colo B game

NYY A game

Cincy A game

STL   A game

 

quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#85
Posted: 5/14/2013 12:23:52 PM
Degen, there is an error in the spreadsheet. The numbers for L10 are wrong. Take Cincy for example, the sheet shows 4-6 while they are actually 7-3. The Streak is wrong too.
quote
bennysparky13 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
bennysparky13
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 104
Location: New York
#86
Posted: 5/14/2013 12:24:28 PM
baltimore a game also
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#87
Posted: 5/14/2013 12:39:01 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bennysparky13:

baltimore a game also

Baltimore is NOT a play. They only have a 2 game series.

quote
Jattdoit send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
Jattdoit
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 137
Location: Nevada
#88
Posted: 5/14/2013 12:40:19 PM
Thanks Dan. i must be looking at todays number. GL!
quote
hardyvault send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
hardyvault
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 94
Location: Nevada
#89
Posted: 5/14/2013 1:25:24 PM
Question: does 'filter #1' remove COL from an official play?
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#90
Posted: 5/14/2013 1:54:45 PM
Both teams were 4-6 in L10 coming into the series. Cubs had a 2 game win streak, Colo a 1 game win streak.
 
Cubs were not playing significantly better coming into the series.
Cubs were 4-3 in last  7 while Colo was 2-5 last 7. Judgement call if you want to play it or not, but I don't see Filter 1 being a factor here.
quote
skew8 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
skew8
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 123
Location:
#91
Posted: 5/14/2013 6:49:22 PM
Much thanks and appreciation to Danrules24 for posting the plays and DegenGamble for devising the excel spreadsheet.  In spite of B2W's absence,  you guys have managed to carry on the system and I for one am thankful.  Appreciation to B2W of course for creating the system.  

Let's keep it going!!
quote
DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
DegenGamble
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1052
Location: New Jersey
#92
Posted: 5/14/2013 9:48:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Degen, there is an error in the spreadsheet. The numbers for L10 are wrong. Take Cincy for example, the sheet shows 4-6 while they are actually 7-3. The Streak is wrong too.

You rock DanRules - you always find my bugs in all my spreadsheets - keen eye my man.  I was not sorting the MLB history so all the oldest data was on top and it was grabbing that instead of the newest.

Anyway - uploaded V3 - same link

Make sure you copy any RPI history you may have to the new version - as I have not been updating it everyday - that's of course if you want the RPI history for the season.

DG
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#93
Posted: 5/14/2013 11:00:35 PM

Tuesday results:

Sweep!!

Colo wins on the B game

NYY wins on the A game

STL wins on the A game

Cincy wins on the A game

Record: 22-1

A: 16-7

B: 5-2

C: 1-1

No games for Wednesday, which is just fine.

quote
hansivonmueller
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
hansivonmueller
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 1884
Location: British
              Columbia
#94
Posted: 5/14/2013 11:15:42 PM
quote
TheGovernor11 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TheGovernor11
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 33
Location:
#95
Posted: 5/15/2013 10:34:44 AM
What's going on guys?  Glad to see a new thread was ressurected for this year.  I've been checking in every now and then to see if it would pop up.  If you need any help posting or tracking let me know.  I'm doing it anyways so it's no problem on my end.  Let's keep the good times rolling.
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#96
Posted: 5/16/2013 12:19:57 PM

No games for Thursday. 4 new series start today but no qualifiers.

For Friday there are 11 new series, so we will get some plays (Pitt, Stl?, AZ, ATL, )

quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#97
Posted: 5/17/2013 12:05:59 PM

Friday 5/17 system plays:

All A games

Pitts

AZ

ATL

STL

quote
superocean2013 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
superocean2013
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 8
Location: Ontario
#98
Posted: 5/17/2013 1:42:40 PM
Hi guys this is my first post and I started this late last year with good results, I appreciate all your posts and picks. Correct me if I am wrong but both Atlanta and LA Dodgers are both 4-6 in their last 10 games while Atlanta has lost 4 of their last 5, and LAD have won 4 of last 5. Does this still qualify as a play? Hopefully I have the correct info. Thanks
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 2093
Location: Nevada
#99
Posted: 5/17/2013 2:05:32 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by superocean2013:

Hi guys this is my first post and I started this late last year with good results, I appreciate all your posts and picks. Correct me if I am wrong but both Atlanta and LA Dodgers are both 4-6 in their last 10 games while Atlanta has lost 4 of their last 5, and LAD have won 4 of last 5. Does this still qualify as a play? Hopefully I have the correct info. Thanks

Welcome. Both are 4-6 in their last 10. Yes the Dodgers have won 4 out last 5, but they were at home against a Harperless Wash (2-1 series record) and Miami (2-1 series record). Before those 5 they lost 8 in a row including getting swept at home by AZ.

Atlanta went 4-6 on a road trip to Cincy, SF and AZ - 3 good teams. Atlanta is back home now where their are 9-5 while LAD are 6-9 on the road. Also, no Kershaw for this series for LA. Atlanta has the better team and clear pittching advantage.

Bottom line is it does qualify for an official play. Your call if you want to play it or not. Sometimes when I feel iffy on a play I'll lay off or bet 1/2 of what I usually do.

Good observation on the recent streaks.

 

quote
superocean2013 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
superocean2013
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 8
Location: Ontario
#100
Posted: 5/17/2013 2:09:22 PM
Thanks so much and Ill take your advice, good luck everyone, cheers!
quote
Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages Page 4 of 28 «  2 3 4 5 6   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.