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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Official (?) RPI 2013 system
fulkgl
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fulkgl
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#576
Posted: 8/18/2013 2:22:29 PM
Spreadsheet with past 3 years. I had to wait for the weekend. I need a new broadband service at my house. Current service was so bad I dropped it. I've had to send this message from a starbucks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvefeUqszdq1dEdkUDE3UHlkdWZmTFJvdE45LXhDMkE&usp=sharing

2013 has had a terrible August. The YTD has dropped to 8.8%.

Comparing the past 3 years shows the big profit from this system is the month of July. By month the system:

May avg ML-134 avg+10.53/100.16 = +10.51%roi
Jun avg ML-144 avg+6.34/92.85 = +6.83%roi
Jul avg ML-163 avg+23.56/76.00 = +31.00%roi <=== big profit
Aug avg ML-177 avg+11.83/137.60 = +8.21%roi

2013 compared to prior years.
* many more games played than prior years.
* A slightly higher ML this year.
* significantly higher average units risked per play. Higher ML causes this.
* the standard deviation this year (because of August) has skyrocketed. At the end of July this year's stats looked normal.
* we need about 8 straight A game wins to make 2013 numbers compare with prior years. The 6-11 A game record this August is killing the 2013 stats.

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fulkgl
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fulkgl
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#577
Posted: 8/18/2013 2:33:57 PM
I see Monday 8/19 plays as LAD and TEX. BOS and PIT are close in RPI, but their L10 records should disqualify them. 

TEX at home against HOU. How high will this line be? -330?

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#578
Posted: 8/18/2013 3:30:19 PM
I disagree with you on Boston and Pitt. The filter is if the opposing team is playing significantly better than the target team. In this case SF and SD are not playing at a level higher than Boston and Pitt to disqualify them if they meet the RPI standard. 
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Riceboi
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#579
Posted: 8/18/2013 7:51:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fulkgl:

Spreadsheet with past 3 years. I had to wait for the weekend. I need a new broadband service at my house. Current service was so bad I dropped it. I've had to send this message from a starbucks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvefeUqszdq1dEdkUDE3UHlkdWZmTFJvdE45LXhDMkE&usp=sharing

2013 has had a terrible August. The YTD has dropped to 8.8%.

Comparing the past 3 years shows the big profit from this system is the month of July. By month the system:

May avg ML-134 avg+10.53/100.16 = +10.51%roi
Jun avg ML-144 avg+6.34/92.85 = +6.83%roi
Jul avg ML-163 avg+23.56/76.00 = +31.00%roi <=== big profit
Aug avg ML-177 avg+11.83/137.60 = +8.21%roi

2013 compared to prior years.
* many more games played than prior years.
* A slightly higher ML this year.
* significantly higher average units risked per play. Higher ML causes this.
* the standard deviation this year (because of August) has skyrocketed. At the end of July this year's stats looked normal.
* we need about 8 straight A game wins to make 2013 numbers compare with prior years. The 6-11 A game record this August is killing the 2013 stats.



You're awesome Fulk! Thanks
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#580
Posted: 8/18/2013 8:07:19 PM
Also good to note that the previous seasons Home team losses occurred in May and June. RPI home teams have been rolling in July and August since 2011. Useful info for next season.

I wish I could see this system dating back to like 2005 or something haha. No way to backtest though unless someone actually tracked it all those years. Maybe bettor2win?
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#581
Posted: 8/19/2013 12:21:11 PM

Monday plays: Texas and LA Dodgers on the A game. Tuesday looks like Detroit and KC. 3 home teams and the LAD on the road in Miami.

Record: 96-6

A: 63-39

B: 22-17

C: 11-6

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#582
Posted: 8/19/2013 6:35:26 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

Also good to note that the previous seasons Home team losses occurred in May and June. RPI home teams have been rolling in July and August since 2011. Useful info for next season.

I wish I could see this system dating back to like 2005 or something haha. No way to backtest though unless someone actually tracked it all those years. Maybe bettor2win?

I just ran the numbers taking the home team AGAINST the target visitor RPI superior team. I took out the interleague series that were 2 home, 2 away. Taking the run line on the home team if a dog would have resulted in a 33-2 record. One series went to a game 4.

So 33-2 vs playing it the regular way of targeting the better team on the road record of 39-5. The difference in number of plays is the home and home interleague series and any double dips from the target team winning the A game in a 4 game series, prompting another play.

I'm not going to play it this way as I think this years record of system losses is a fluke. Just thought it was interesting.

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#583
Posted: 8/19/2013 7:08:14 PM
Dan, did you figure out the record for A, B and C games for those series?
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#584
Posted: 8/19/2013 7:55:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by spoutbec:

Dan, did you figure out the record for A, B and C games for those series?

Record 33-2

  • A: 21-14
  • B: 8-6
  • C: 3-3
  • D: 1-0
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#585
Posted: 8/19/2013 9:01:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I just ran the numbers taking the home team AGAINST the target visitor RPI superior team. I took out the interleague series that were 2 home, 2 away. Taking the run line on the home team if a dog would have resulted in a 33-2 record. One series went to a game 4.

So 33-2 vs playing it the regular way of targeting the better team on the road record of 39-5. The difference in number of plays is the home and home interleague series and any double dips from the target team winning the A game in a 4 game series, prompting another play.

I'm not going to play it this way as I think this years record of system losses is a fluke. Just thought it was interesting.



Definite fluke year. Hopefully it just means we are due no more than 2 losses next season.
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#586
Posted: 8/20/2013 12:17:31 AM

Monday results: Texas wins. LAD lose on A game, to B game Tuesday.

Tuesday looks like Detroit and KC also on the A game.

Record: 97-6

A: 64-40

B: 22-17

C: 11-6

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#587
Posted: 8/20/2013 12:21:46 AM
La dodgers is a play plus Detroit and kc ?
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#588
Posted: 8/20/2013 12:39:08 AM
Someone else has chi ws as a chase play ? What's up ?
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#589
Posted: 8/20/2013 1:12:03 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by tonyperaino:

Someone else has chi ws as a chase play ? What's up ?

Tuesday for this system LAD is a play on the B game, Det and KC on the A game.

 

As for KC/CWS, The Magna Carta system says to play the opposite of this system. That will happen sometimes. I'm taking KC to win one of 3 at home vs CWS. Maybe lay off the first game and chase the opposite of game one? I feel better betting on the better team at home. No Chris Sale in the series either.

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#590
Posted: 8/21/2013 12:35:39 AM

Tuesday results: LAD win on the B game. Detroit and KC lose on the A game, go to B game Wednesday.

Record: 98-6

A: 64-42

B: 23-17

C: 11-6

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#591
Posted: 8/22/2013 12:00:11 AM

Wednesday results: Detroit wins on the B game. KC loses on the B game, go to C game Thursday. Our 18th C game of the year. Incredible.

Record: 99-6

A: 64-42

B: 24-18

C: 11-6

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#592
Posted: 8/22/2013 1:02:49 AM
kc tomorrow !
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#593
Posted: 8/22/2013 9:06:06 PM
Dan what was the juice that you got for KC for all three games?
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#594
Posted: 8/22/2013 9:44:46 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Riceboi:

Dan what was the juice that you got for KC for all three games?

What I personally got was -180, -170, -170. You probably could have gotten better shopping around or offshore.

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#595
Posted: 8/23/2013 12:23:34 AM

Another system loss. Thanks to KC Mgr Ned Yost who apparently doesn't believe in bunting. How do you have 1st and 2nd, nobody out and not bunt the winning run to 3rd? Worse case is they walk the next batter to load them up for Butler. Again in the 12th, guy on 2nd and nobody out and you don't bunt the tying run to third?

 

Personally I'm done betting this system this year. I'll continue to post and good luck to all that play.

Record: 99-7

A: 64-42

B: 24-18

C: 11-7

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#596
Posted: 8/23/2013 12:28:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Another system loss. Thanks to KC Mgr Ned Yost who apparently doesn't believe in bunting. How do you have 1st and 2nd, nobody out and not bunt the winning run to 3rd? Worse case is they walk the next batter to load them up for Butler. Again in the 12th, guy on 2nd and nobody out and you don't bunt the tying run to third?

 

Personally I'm done betting this system this year. I'll continue to post and good luck to all that play.

Record: 99-7

A: 64-42

B: 24-18

C: 11-7



I was done after the 6th lost.  No need for more bleeding.  Good luck to all who are playing this forward on
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#597
Posted: 8/23/2013 1:54:38 AM
I still believe or hope to believe this system has some potential, maybe to add some tweaks and filters. I think a lil bit of problem lays in our greedines :) Maybe we should just run with Jun-Jul, where there were most wins and the prices were nice.. we stop in August etc... ? I'll be playing RPI unofficial for september as well but probably with 0.1u :) just so im in the game to see how the system turns out and how it works in september. I'm first year betting on MLB cuz im from europe, so i believe i've gained some valuable experiences and I'll be ready for next year. I'm also thinking about finding ways to minimaze chases losses and risk. Also thinking about chasing DOGs on -1.5 (that could be fun and cheap :)) 

But something stinks in this CWS @ KC - I don't know how that thing is working in U.S. but I know for sure a lot of games here in Europe are set or agreed. Yesterday I've checked their series, it was i think last 3 series ROAD team swept the home team... and so as Dan wrote - i couldnt watch the game but if there were chances almost intentionally left out - maybe there is something on that. I'm not the guy who goes blame Vegas and rigged games cause I've lost few units, it just made me think, and I think KC was a wrong choice yesterday, If i were to play it single i would've let it out.  And I hope US are less infected with the rigging games then Europe is. 

BOL to you guys and we'll get em next year.. :)

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#598
Posted: 8/23/2013 3:04:34 AM
Freakin KC let the home teams down. =(
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#599
Posted: 8/23/2013 10:43:12 AM
Home teams will still finish the season in profit. Only way for me to go. I'll still play road teams occasionally but after this season no way will I bet all road teams.
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#600
Posted: 8/23/2013 11:38:38 AM

For those still interested, A games on Cincy (home against Mil) and Texas (at CWS).

Record: 99-7

A: 64-42

B: 24-18

C: 11-7

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