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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Official (?) RPI 2013 system
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#476
Posted: 7/22/2013 11:55:27 AM

For Monday we have two plays - Detroit and Oakland. Detroit is a 4 game series so if they win today we start a new 3 game chase tomorrow.

Detroit is 44 point difference @ Chicago Sox

Oakland is plus 54 points @ Houston.

Record: 73-4

A: 50-27

B: 15-12

C: 8-4

 

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#477
Posted: 7/23/2013 12:01:13 AM

Detroit and Oakland both win on the A game.

We have Detroit again tomorrow since it's a 4 game series.

Record: 75-4

A: 52-27

B: 15-12

C: 8-4

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jenjay23
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#478
Posted: 7/23/2013 6:30:03 PM

Hey Dan and others, thanks for keeping this system rolling and all the tools and strategies that go along with it. As I am sure many of you do on a daily basis, I am always thinking of "other" profitable edges out there.  Building off a system such as this, I was hoping someone has the proper data base to possibly backtest results with odds to see if it is profitable.  I have only gone off assumptions and intuition of following the final scores everyday. I am not sure if this was brought up in previous years, as I am sure someone has thought of it.

Theory is:

For all qualifying teams who have won thier "A" game, and we have profited 1 unit, Fading the qualifying team in a 2 game chase in the B & C games for 0.25 units.  I figure in most cases that team should be a dog, so risk is losing 0.75 units and profiting 0.25 in the series if the better team sweeps.  If the fade comes in, we profit another ~0.25-0.5 units on top of the 1 from the A game.  In cases of 4 game series, the qualifying team must win the first 2 games, then fade the qualifying team for the C & D game chase for 0.25 units.  Maybe filter out Home versus Road and only fade if qualifying team wins thier "A" game and are on the road??

If any of you have a proper database to see if this would even be profitable, or more profitable, much appreciated.  If this is not the right place to post let me know and i will move it.

GL 2 all

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#479
Posted: 7/23/2013 6:36:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jenjay23:

Hey Dan and others, thanks for keeping this system rolling and all the tools and strategies that go along with it. As I am sure many of you do on a daily basis, I am always thinking of "other" profitable edges out there.  Building off a system such as this, I was hoping someone has the proper data base to possibly backtest results with odds to see if it is profitable.  I have only gone off assumptions and intuition of following the final scores everyday. I am not sure if this was brought up in previous years, as I am sure someone has thought of it.

Theory is:

For all qualifying teams who have won thier "A" game, and we have profited 1 unit, Fading the qualifying team in a 2 game chase in the B & C games for 0.25 units.  I figure in most cases that team should be a dog, so risk is losing 0.75 units and profiting 0.25 in the series if the better team sweeps.  If the fade comes in, we profit another ~0.25-0.5 units on top of the 1 from the A game.  In cases of 4 game series, the qualifying team must win the first 2 games, then fade the qualifying team for the C & D game chase for 0.25 units.  Maybe filter out Home versus Road and only fade if qualifying team wins thier "A" game and are on the road??

If any of you have a proper database to see if this would even be profitable, or more profitable, much appreciated.  If this is not the right place to post let me know and i will move it.

GL 2 all

I might have the info on this. I was tested something I called the Anti-RPI and that could translate over to what you are looking at. I need to run the numbers from the break forward. Giveme a bit and I'll come back with my findings.

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#480
Posted: 7/23/2013 8:11:01 PM

JenJay - We have played 79 series to date. We need to eliminate the 27 A game losses by the qualifying team, leaving 52 series wins on the A game. Taking into account the 4 game series that the qualifying team won on the A game (prompting another A game), we are down to 43 series (I did not count the 2 series that won on the A game on 7/22)

13 of the 43 series were sweeps by the qualifying team. So you'd have 30 wins and 13 losses of 3 units each if we assume a dog scenario on the team we are betting on.

Just too many sweeps by the good teams.

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#481
Posted: 7/23/2013 9:17:51 PM
Much appreciated and thanks for the info......
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#482
Posted: 7/23/2013 11:14:32 PM

Tuesday 7/23:

Detroit wins on the A game.

Record: 76-4

A: 53-27

B: 15-12

C: 8-4

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#483
Posted: 7/25/2013 11:50:27 AM
No plays today. Toronto is sub .500. Probably Pitts tomorrow, will confirm Friday morning.
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#484
Posted: 7/26/2013 10:59:07 AM

We have Pitts on the A game.

Record: 76-4

A: 53-27

B: 15-12

C: 8-4

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JEFFTHEHAT
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#485
Posted: 7/26/2013 8:25:05 PM
You know your in trouble when the 5 hitter for the pirates struck out without swinging the bat. Why did he even get up,should of just said give me an out I don't feel like swinging!       
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#486
Posted: 7/26/2013 11:15:05 PM

Pirates lose on the A game, B game Saturday.

Record: 76-4

A: 53-28

B: 15-12

C: 8-4

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b_rad_1983
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#487
Posted: 7/27/2013 1:18:18 AM
What is a normal bet increment for games a,b and c?
Would you normally play all the same amount, 
or 
A=$100 B=$50 C=$25?
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#488
Posted: 7/27/2013 1:27:15 AM
I won't suggest for anyone to bet a certain amount. All I'll say is that if you bet each series to win 1 unit (whatever amount that unit is to you), you'd be profitable on the season. 

Given an overall record of 76-44, you'd most likely do very well on a labby line too. 

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#489
Posted: 7/28/2013 1:20:35 AM

Pirates win on the B game. System is rolling.

Record: 77-4

A: 53-28

B: 16-12

C: 8-4

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#490
Posted: 7/28/2013 1:23:52 AM
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#491
Posted: 7/29/2013 12:03:14 PM

For Monday we have Cleveland as a play at home against ChiSox.

Tuesday looks like we will have Balt and Bost as plays.

Record: 77-4

A: 53-28

B: 16-12

C: 8-4

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b_rad_1983
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#492
Posted: 7/29/2013 3:47:55 PM
Good job with this Dan!
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#493
Posted: 7/29/2013 9:53:09 PM

And that is a Clev winner on the A game. Since this is a 4 game series we have another Clev A game Tuesday probably with Boston and Balt too. Will confirm tomorrow.

 

Record: 78-4

A: 54-28

B: 16-12

C: 8-4

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#494
Posted: 7/29/2013 10:55:52 PM
What a great night for system plays. 
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#495
Posted: 7/30/2013 12:22:45 PM

Tuesday - We have Boston, Balt and Clev all on A games.

Record: 78-4

A: 54-28

B: 16-12

C: 8-4

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#496
Posted: 7/30/2013 10:09:47 PM

Tuesday -  Boston, Balt and Clev all win on the A game. Sweep!!

Record: 81-4

A: 57-28

B: 16-12

C: 8-4

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#497
Posted: 8/1/2013 12:23:28 AM

Not sure how many on here are in Vegas but does anyone want to meet at the Red Rock this weekend for a beer (or beverage of choice) and shoot the sh*t?

 

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b_rad_1983
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#498
Posted: 8/1/2013 1:16:59 PM
Fly me out there :) 
I'm going to focus more on these rpi system bets and lay off big parlays.. Hopefully I can start profiting. 
I will start out with 10$ for 4 picks, then once I win 4, I will double my bet for another 4. I think that's kinda like the labby line you suggested. 
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#499
Posted: 8/1/2013 10:10:46 PM

Get ready for a big day Friday. Looks like we will have Detroit, Pitts, Boston, Clev, and Tampa.

Will confirm Friday morning.

 

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#500
Posted: 8/1/2013 10:55:14 PM
Ya it looks to be 5 teams for the ol' RPI.

Pitching match ups for DET PIT and TB are pretty even for their first games, but become more favorable in game 2 for each team.

BOS and CLE do not have good pitching match ups in either of their first 2. That doesn't mean they won't win however.
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