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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
nawlins51 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#151
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:41:50 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

I would also add no favs even at -1 higher than -130. I would say track it but I agree with nawlins - juice is the enemy - lets treat this as a system and see how it does as well

Totally agree Degen. Lets make it an official rule for tracking purposes. Play a fave at -130 or less. If higher than -130 then make -1 on the run line. If run line is higher than -130 then the play is scratched from our card.

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#152
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:44:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nawlins51:

Dan,

I say flat bet for now. We start getting into labby lines at this point and new folks come into this thread, we are going to darn their head up lol. For tracking purposes I say flat bet. Yeah lets track it and see how it goes. I will pop into the thread to help during the week to help you if I can. I have 2 procedures this month on my back so I may be MIA from time to time.

Flat bet it is. I'll add this to my daily posts and we shall see how it does. Good luck with the back issues.

On Degen's sugestion on the high faves even at -1, I'll track it if it's a system play regardless of juice. We can see how that works out. If it's ok with everyone, I will use the lines I get in Vegas for making the faves -1.

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#153
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:51:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Flat bet it is. I'll add this to my daily posts and we shall see how it does. Good luck with the back issues.

On Degen's sugestion on the high faves even at -1, I'll track it if it's a system play regardless of juice. We can see how that works out. If it's ok with everyone, I will use the lines I get in Vegas for making the faves -1.

i see no issue with vegas lines. Go for it and thanks for the wishes. I did post that calculator on page 6 of the thread if you need a handy quick tool.

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#154
Posted: 5/4/2013 5:20:12 PM

Ok, with the added filters and systems added I will track all 4 on a flat betting system starting now. New systems added at the top of the plays below.

Saturday 5/4 system plays:

Dog EFF Score

Sea 123

Bal 137

Pitt 129

Fave -1 EFF Score

Cincy +118

KC -102

Det -158

TB -105

AZ 118

SF 120

Dog EFF

Balt 137, 2 units

Oak 100, 2 units

Bos 122, 2 units

Sea 123, 2 units

SD 112, 2 units

System Plays

Balt 137

Oak 100

Bos 122

Sea 123

SD 112

Cubs 108

ChiSox 132

Mets 120

Colo 118

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#155
Posted: 5/4/2013 8:36:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nawlins51:

Totally agree Degen. Lets make it an official rule for tracking purposes. Play a fave at -130 or less. If higher than -130 then make -1 on the run line. If run line is higher than -130 then the play is scratched from our card.

Based on this rules, I need to revise the Fave EFF Score system plays. All plays are using the -1 unless noted:

Fave EFF Score

Cincy +118

KC -102

Det -158 (No play, too high juice)

TB -130 ML 

AZ -125 ML

SF 120

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#156
Posted: 5/4/2013 8:38:54 PM
Correction, Cincy would have been ML at -115.
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#157
Posted: 5/4/2013 9:04:01 PM

Looking at the scores from both Dogs and Faves , there are teams who are just bad bets on both sides meaning they have negative numbers as Dogs and Faves. Just crap teams who will take your money.

Cubs(they got my cash today..Pieces of crap)

Astros

Angels

Dodgers

Marlins

Padres

Blue jays

Nationals

When you bet these teams as of now and win, it is pure luck. Example, I bet the Cubs today. Not the smartest bet. Look at Nats win today. Complete luck. Playing these teams like I did today is asking for trouble. A lot of cappers will say pick your spots carefully, well good luck giving up that cash in the long run. Like I said, let these teams show us they are good bets.

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#158
Posted: 5/5/2013 1:51:16 AM

Saturday 5/4 results:

Dog EFF Score

2-1, +1.6 units

Sea 123 WIN

Bal 137 WIN

Pitt 129 Loss

Fave -1 EFF Score

3-1-1,+1.70 units

Cincy -115 ml WIN

KC -102 WIN

TB -130 ml Loss

AZ -125 ml WIN

SF 120 WIN on ml, loss on -1.5 (Push overall)

Dog EFF

2-3, -.8 units

YTD 12-10, +10.96 units

Balt 137, 2 units WIN

Oak 100, 2 units Loss

Bos 122, 2 units Loss

Sea 123, 2 units WIN

SD 112, 2 units Loss

System Plays

3-5, -1.22 units

YTD 71-74, +13.74 units

Balt 137 WIN

Oak 100 Loss

Bos 122 Loss

Sea 123 WIN

SD 112 Loss

Cubs 108 Loss

ChiSox 132 Loss

Mets 120 ppd

Colo 118 WIN

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#159
Posted: 5/5/2013 12:47:26 PM

Sunday 5/4 system plays:

Dog EFF Score

Sea 142

Bal 122

TB 115

Fave -1 EFF Score

NYY -138 ml

KC -126 ml

Cincy -119

AZ -119 ml

SF -122 ml

 

Dog EFF

Oak 128, 2 units

Stl 107, 2 units

Bal 122, 2 units

 

System Plays

Oak 128

Stl 107

Bal 122

Sea 142

Mets 140

Mia 170

SD 108

TB 102

Bos/Tex Under 8 -110

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#160
Posted: 5/5/2013 1:03:47 PM

Hey Dan,

I don't think Rays are a Dog EFF score play. Rockies should be a fave EFF score play. 

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#161
Posted: 5/5/2013 1:12:31 PM

Yes, I messed that up. Add Colo as a -125 ml Fave Score play and eliminate TB from the Dog Score play.

 

Sunday 5/4 system plays (REVISED):

Dog EFF Score

Sea 142

Bal 122

Fave -1 EFF Score

NYY -138 ml

KC -126 ml

Cincy -119

AZ -119 ml

SF -122 ml

Colo -125ml

Dog EFF

Oak 128, 2 units

Stl 107, 2 units

Bal 122, 2 units

System Plays

Oak 128

Stl 107

Bal 122

Sea 142

Mets 140

Mia 170

SD 108

TB 115

Bos/Tex Under 8 -110

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#162
Posted: 5/5/2013 7:31:59 PM
Fave -1 EFF Score not so good
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#163
Posted: 5/5/2013 8:39:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Cuntchaser:

Fave -1 EFF Score not so good

Pending the SF game, it is 5-4,  -.12 units. It's only been 2 days, let's give it a chance.

 

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#164
Posted: 5/5/2013 11:03:06 PM

Sunday 5/5 results:

Dog EFF Score

1-1, +.22 units

YTD 3-2, +1.82 units

Sea 142 Loss

Bal 122 WON

Fave -1 EFF Score

3-3, -.82 units

YTD 6-4, +.88 units

NYY -138 ml Loss

KC -126 ml WIN

Cincy -119 WIN

AZ -119 ml Loss

SF -122 ml WIN

Colo -125ml Loss

Dog EFF

3-0, +7.14 units

YTD 15-10, +18.1 units

Oak 128, 2 units WIN

Stl 107, 2 units WIN

Bal 122, 2 units WIN

System Plays

7-2, +6.5 units

YTD 78-76, +20.24 units

Oak 128 WIN

Stl 107 WIN

Bal 122 WIN

Sea 142 Loss

Mets 140 Loss

Mia 170 WIN

SD 108 WIN

TB 115 WIN

Bos/Tex Under 8 -110 WIN

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#165
Posted: 5/6/2013 3:39:24 AM

outstanding results! [Miami +170 WIN]  [BOS/TEX UNDER-8 WIN] the system is producing consistency in O/U play....vg work all the way around> DG,Danrules24,Nawlins51,

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#166
Posted: 5/6/2013 9:37:10 AM

any dog picks for monday?

 

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#167
Posted: 5/6/2013 9:44:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikkii10:

any dog picks for monday?

 

too early
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#168
Posted: 5/6/2013 11:26:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

outstanding results! [Miami +170 WIN]  [BOS/TEX UNDER-8 WIN] the system is producing consistency in O/U play....vg work all the way around> DG,Danrules24,Nawlins51,

Thanks Sports Network - much appreciated.

You should start a thread....you have such a vast knowledge of sports handicapping - I myself have learned a geat deal from you, and strive to learn more every day.  You inspire me to help others.  Knoweledge is power, and should be shared with those who have the drive and the desire to learn.

I thought your Sabermetrics thread was very insightful and pointed me in a direction that I never thought about - so I appreciate it.

You should start that up again - i'm sure others will appreciate your handicapping insights and knowledge - just as I have.

If you need anything let me know - as always Best of Luck to you and well wishes to you and your family.   

 

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#169
Posted: 5/6/2013 11:38:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Thanks Sports Network - much appreciated.

You should start a thread....you have such a vast knowledge of sports handicapping - I myself have learned a geat deal from you, and strive to learn more every day.  You inspire me to help others.  Knoweledge is power, and should be shared with those who have the drive and the desire to learn.

I thought your Sabermetrics thread was very insightful and pointed me in a direction that I never thought about - so I appreciate it.

You should start that up again - i'm sure others will appreciate your handicapping insights and knowledge - just as I have.

If you need anything let me know - as always Best of Luck to you and well wishes to you and your family.   

 

+1

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#170
Posted: 5/6/2013 11:48:30 AM
DG, after the All-Star game- later
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#171
Posted: 5/6/2013 11:59:57 AM

Monday 5/6 system plays:

Dog EFF Score

No plays

Fave -1 EFF Score

Tampa -140 ml

Dog EFF

Oak 103, 2 units

System Plays

Oak 103

Tor 130

Phil/SF Under 6 -110

 

Note: If both teams are at - odds, not considering either a favorite or dog.

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nawlins51 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#172
Posted: 5/6/2013 3:30:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Monday 5/6 system plays:

Dog EFF Score

No plays

Fave -1 EFF Score

Tampa -140 ml

Dog EFF

Oak 103, 2 units

System Plays

Oak 103

Tor 130

Phil/SF Under 6 -110

 

Note: If both teams are at - odds, not considering either a favorite or dog.


Dan I think Tampa needs to be -1.

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#173
Posted: 5/6/2013 3:36:16 PM

Monday 5/6 system plays (Revised on TB FAVE -1 EFF Score):

Dog EFF Score

No plays

Fave -1 EFF Score

Tampa 120(after making them -1)

Dog EFF

Oak 103, 2 units

System Plays

Oak 103

Tor 130

Phil/SF Under 6 -110

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#174
Posted: 5/6/2013 3:37:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nawlins51:


Dan I think Tampa needs to be -1.

For some reason I was thinking -140 as the cut off. Revised, see above post.

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#175
Posted: 5/6/2013 8:49:12 PM
Degen
Will making the columns/rows smaller...font etc... screw with the updates?
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