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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#126
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:33:41 PM
I'm messing around with the stats per each system.  Unfortunately, I only have separated system stats since April 29th, so it's a small sample.  I have going 4 differant spreadsheets for each system.  First for the plays as is,.. one with a filter of no bet greater than -150 (fav),... third that is a 3g chase starting on the A game bet, going to C (if needed) and also, this last one with a filter of no bet greater than -150 (fav).
I'm using the final lines on Covers as a basis
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#127
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:35:24 PM
Geez, didn't mean to post yet...wish we could edit...anyway....

If you want, every week, I can update how everything is going.
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#128
Posted: 5/3/2013 7:29:26 PM
This is what I have so far from April 28th for the systems/chases:
These are based on the final lines of Covers.  Any play may become a no play, depends on when you update the lines/make a bet.

Low scoring dog: -3units, filtered: -3u, chase: 0u (chases start on the A bet)
Divisional Underdog: +3.07u, filtered +0.84u, chase: +9.66u, filtered chase: +4.62u
MLB Underdog:  +7.73u, filtered: +6.35, chase: +8.11, filtered chase: +8.11
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#129
Posted: 5/4/2013 8:01:28 AM

Friday 5/3 results:

Dog EFF

2-2, +.64 units

YTD 10-7, +11.76 units

Balt 114, 2 units Loss

Minn 135, 2 units Loss

Oak 132, 2 units WIN

STL 100, 2 units WIN

System Plays

6-3, +4.34 units

YTD 68-69, +14.96 units

Balt 114 Loss

Minn 135 Loss

Oak 132 WIN

STL 100 WIN

Wash 116 Loss

Mets 169 WIN

ChiSox 135 ppd

SD 110 WIN

SF 123 WIN

Stl/Mil Under 8 -110 WIN

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#130
Posted: 5/4/2013 12:51:11 PM

Saturday 5/4 system plays:

Dog EFF

Balt 137, 2 units

Oak  100, 2 units

Bos 122, 2 units

Sea 123, 2 units

SD 112, 2 units

System Plays

Balt 137

Oak 100

Bos 122

Sea 123

SD 112

Cubs 108

ChiSox 132

Mets 120

Colo 118

 

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#131
Posted: 5/4/2013 1:20:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Saturday 5/4 system plays:

Dog EFF

Balt 137, 2 units

Oak  100, 2 units

Bos 122, 2 units

Sea 123, 2 units

SD 112, 2 units

System Plays

Balt 137

Oak 100

Bos 122

Sea 123

SD 112

Cubs 108

ChiSox 132

Mets 120

Colo 118

 


Dan what are you using as a filter? Is it Overall Dog EFF or Odds Dog EFF? What is the minimum percentage you are looking at to make a play for DOG EFF?

There is also a ranking method for Dog EFF by converting it to basically a power ranking. I have sent it to Degen and we plan on having it in the new spreadsheet sometime in the future.

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#132
Posted: 5/4/2013 1:20:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Saturday 5/4 system plays:

Dog EFF

Balt 137, 2 units

Oak  100, 2 units

Bos 122, 2 units

Sea 123, 2 units

SD 112, 2 units

System Plays

Balt 137

Oak 100

Bos 122

Sea 123

SD 112

Cubs 108

ChiSox 132

Mets 120

Colo 118

 


Dan what are you using as a filter? Is it Overall Dog EFF or Odds Dog EFF? What is the minimum percentage you are looking at to make a play for DOG EFF?

There is also a ranking method for Dog EFF by converting it to basically a power ranking. I have sent it to Degen and we plan on having it in the new spreadsheet sometime in the future.

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#133
Posted: 5/4/2013 1:29:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nawlins51:


Dan what are you using as a filter? Is it Overall Dog EFF or Odds Dog EFF? What is the minimum percentage you are looking at to make a play for DOG EFF?

There is also a ranking method for Dog EFF by converting it to basically a power ranking. I have sent it to Degen and we plan on having it in the new spreadsheet sometime in the future.

For Dog EFF, a team first must qualify for one or more of the systems. Then if both Dog EFF columns are .400 or better, I make it a Dog EFF play. Seems to be working so far in the testing, but it's early. Open to looking at anything that will improve this system so we can all make some $$$.

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#134
Posted: 5/4/2013 1:56:40 PM

DanRules,

another covers member brought up a very interesting concept that we should probably consider using rather than dog efficiency.

It's called an Underdog Team Efficiency Score.  The score ranks the best underdog teams and it is a more accurate rating of team performance as an underdog. The Efficiency Score takes into account profit on turnover for each of the 30 MLB Teams. Suppose Team A and Team B both win 5 units as an underdog over the course of a season. Team A is a better underdog play than Team B if you would have had to wager far fewer times on Team A to win those 5 units.

Overall team records and even team win percentage as an underdog can be very deceiving, and those stats will not show the best underdog teams. For example, the Yankees had the most wins in 2009 (103), but they had a slightly negative 2009 Team Underdog Efficiency Score. They were not a good underdog play in 2009.

Underdog win percentage can also be very deceiving. For example, in 2009, both the Yankees and the White Sox won 48% of the games in which they were underdogs. However the White Sox won 10 more units as an underdog than the Yankees did. If wagering $100, that's $1,000 more in profits. The White Sox had a much better Underdog Efficiency Score despite both teams winning the same percentage of games as an underdog.

I also looked into Dog Efficiency at the end of the year and most teams come close to 50% - so right now it's working since the sample size is small - but I think as the season progresses - that Dog Eff will move towards 50% for all teams.

I will incorporate this Underdog Team Efficiency Score as well as inplement a Favorite Team Efficiency score into the spreadsheet.

The idea would be to find matchups where a Dog with a high score (i.e. is proficient at winning as a dog) plays a Fav with a low score

I have to finish some over / under modeling first - but will also add this concept.  May be able to give some additional insight on only picking the DOG plays with the greatest value.

 

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#135
Posted: 5/4/2013 1:58:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nawlins51:


Dan what are you using as a filter? Is it Overall Dog EFF or Odds Dog EFF? What is the minimum percentage you are looking at to make a play for DOG EFF?

There is also a ranking method for Dog EFF by converting it to basically a power ranking. I have sent it to Degen and we plan on having it in the new spreadsheet sometime in the future.

Thanks Nawlins - didn't want to call you out unless you wanted me to

I will defintely add what we discussed to the spreadsheet

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#136
Posted: 5/4/2013 2:12:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Thanks Nawlins - didn't want to call you out unless you wanted me to

I will defintely add what we discussed to the spreadsheet

Not a problem. We are here to help each other. The over/under model should be interesting. We may have to track it for the season or until all star break and see what we have before playing totals. I have been experimenting. I want to show you something too look at this week. Need to see if we can snatch it and out it in the total sheet.

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#137
Posted: 5/4/2013 2:17:46 PM
Degen, sounds good. I look forward to this new filter. When it's ready, let's talk about what % would trigger a play.
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#138
Posted: 5/4/2013 2:18:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

For Dog EFF, a team first must qualify for one or more of the systems. Then if both Dog EFF columns are .400 or better, I make it a Dog EFF play. Seems to be working so far in the testing, but it's early. Open to looking at anything that will improve this system so we can all make some $$$.

good deal. I tried posting the MLB score rankings for you to look at but covers is telling me its too many characters. Let me try again.

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#139
Posted: 5/4/2013 2:38:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nawlins51:

good deal. I tried posting the MLB score rankings for you to look at but covers is telling me its too many characters. Let me try again.

Dan i tried. Will post a couple just so you can see something

Rangers have a positive score of 119 and are the best dog to bet. 

Cards have a positive score of 72

Blue Jays have a negative score of 51 making them a bad bet 

Rays have a negative 62.55 score making them also a bad bet. 

If we stick with positive scores the best dog teams to bet right now are:

Rangers,Cards,braves,pirates,redsox,giants,royals,twins,O's,Phillies,Yanks,Dbacks and Oakland.

The rest are dogs with a negative score but Indians,Pads and M's are very close to be a good score.



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#140
Posted: 5/4/2013 2:46:33 PM
Another reason why I think we are on the right path. Look at the Jays and M's game today. If we use WHIP which a lot of people look at including myself you see Dickey being the better pitcher. He is a human gas can right now. IMO, stats are an illusion. The only way to play MLB is finding an edge with no juice bets(DOGS). I may have found us an edge along to add with the DOG EFF but I need to track it. i will get with Degen and see if we can incorporate it into the sheet. Its so simple and stupid it will likely work. Capping should take less than 30 minutes a day for 15 games. Should take less than that. And that goes for any sport.
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#141
Posted: 5/4/2013 3:03:19 PM

Hey Guys - uploaded V8 - same link.

Added 2 columns that has both the Dog Eff Score and the Fav Eff Score

I left both columns in so you can see what teams are profitable as Dogs and as Favs - also put them both in there because lines flip flop - or you may get different lines - so just left both in there regardless if the team is a DOG or a FAV in the particular matchup.

Some interesting insights on todays games

OAK is a play - but as a DOG they have a score of 2 and NYY as a FAV has a score of 22 - so this would be a potential red flag not to bet OAK even though it's a play in 2 systems and has a DOG EFF of >.400 for both

CHC is a play but same thing goes - as a DOG -24 and CIN is 1 as FAV

SEA - DOG SCR 0 / TOR FAV SCR -37 - so good dog to bet since they are matched up with a FAV with a negative score - but I would like to see a higher DOG scr

I'll let you look at the rest - but something to consider.

 

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#142
Posted: 5/4/2013 3:09:17 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sports_Network:

'soon' was yesterdays results...good stuff   DG

Thanks Sports_Network - just trying to learn and figure it out as much as I can.  Your experience in the handicapping realm is unmatched - I appreciate the kind words and your guidance on sports betting.  It is truly appreciated.  You are a gentleman and a scholar my friend...

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#143
Posted: 5/4/2013 3:13:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

This is what I have so far from April 28th for the systems/chases:
These are based on the final lines of Covers.  Any play may become a no play, depends on when you update the lines/make a bet.

Low scoring dog: -3units, filtered: -3u, chase: 0u (chases start on the A bet)
Divisional Underdog: +3.07u, filtered +0.84u, chase: +9.66u, filtered chase: +4.62u
MLB Underdog:  +7.73u, filtered: +6.35, chase: +8.11, filtered chase: +8.11

Great stuff Buckeye - I always thought a chase may be profitable - keep up the good work - hopefully we can figure the best way to play this and the best filters / betting model to use

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#144
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:08:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Hey Guys - uploaded V8 - same link.

Added 2 columns that has both the Dog Eff Score and the Fav Eff Score

I left both columns in so you can see what teams are profitable as Dogs and as Favs - also put them both in there because lines flip flop - or you may get different lines - so just left both in there regardless if the team is a DOG or a FAV in the particular matchup.

Some interesting insights on todays games

OAK is a play - but as a DOG they have a score of 2 and NYY as a FAV has a score of 22 - so this would be a potential red flag not to bet OAK even though it's a play in 2 systems and has a DOG EFF of >.400 for both

CHC is a play but same thing goes - as a DOG -24 and CIN is 1 as FAV

SEA - DOG SCR 0 / TOR FAV SCR -37 - so good dog to bet since they are matched up with a FAV with a negative score - but I would like to see a higher DOG scr

I'll let you look at the rest - but something to consider.

 

I do like this and glad we talked about the fave scoring last week. I think the sheet looks good. So lets look at it as a system itself. Taking away all the other low scoring dog. Going off the score lets find dogs and faves.

Minny and Cleveland both are positive so NO PLAY

Oak and Yanks both positive so NO PLAY

Cubs neg dog /Reds positive fave- REDS PLAY

M's positive Dog /Jays Neg fave- M's PLAY

Balty positive DOG/Angels neg fav- BALTY PLAY

Brewers neg dog/Cards neg fave- NO PLAY

Pirates pos DOG/Cards neg fave - PIRATES PLAY

Marlins neg dog/Phillies neg fave -NO PLAY

White Sox neg dog/Royals pos fave- ROYALS PLAY

Mets neg dog/Braves neg fave- NO PLAY

Astros neg dog/ Tigers pos fave - DETROIT PLAY

Red sox pos dog/Rangers pos fave- NO PLAY or do we go DOG??

Rockies neg dog/Rays pos fave- RAYS PLAY

Padres neg dog/Dbacks pos fave- DBACKS PLAY

Dodgers neg dog/Giants pos fav- GIANTS PLAY


DOG Plays

M's

Balty

Pirates


Favorite Plays

Reds

Royals 

Tigers

Rays

Dbacks

Giants


With Faves we can make them -1 and go for that reducing juice and likely getting +++ money. Here is a -1 RL calculator 

http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167



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#145
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:13:20 PM

Just downloaded the new spreadsheet. Looks good.

Degan and Nawlins, what do you think we should use as a trigger for plays? Any particular number is the difference between a dog and fave? Or maybe the dog can't be a negative number and the fave has to be negative?

Open to suggestions. Going with dog as 0 or better and a fave -, would have given us plays today of Sea, Bal, Pitt.

 

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#146
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:18:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nawlins51:

I do like this and glad we talked about the fave scoring last week. I think the sheet looks good. So lets look at it as a system itself. Taking away all the other low scoring dog. Going off the score lets find dogs and faves.

Minny and Cleveland both are positive so NO PLAY

Oak and Yanks both positive so NO PLAY

Cubs neg dog /Reds positive fave- REDS PLAY

M's positive Dog /Jays Neg fave- M's PLAY

Balty positive DOG/Angels neg fav- BALTY PLAY

Brewers neg dog/Cards neg fave- NO PLAY

Pirates pos DOG/Cards neg fave - PIRATES PLAY

Marlins neg dog/Phillies neg fave -NO PLAY

White Sox neg dog/Royals pos fave- ROYALS PLAY

Mets neg dog/Braves neg fave- NO PLAY

Astros neg dog/ Tigers pos fave - DETROIT PLAY

Red sox pos dog/Rangers pos fave- NO PLAY or do we go DOG??

Rockies neg dog/Rays pos fave- RAYS PLAY

Padres neg dog/Dbacks pos fave- DBACKS PLAY

Dodgers neg dog/Giants pos fav- GIANTS PLAY


DOG Plays

M's

Balty

Pirates


Favorite Plays

Reds

Royals 

Tigers

Rays

Dbacks

Giants


With Faves we can make them -1 and go for that reducing juice and likely getting +++ money. Here is a -1 RL calculator 

http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167



Making the faves -1 we get

Reds  +123

Royals -102

Tigers -150 yucky

Rays -103

Dbacks -101

Giants +122

I used bookmaker lines. There lines are sharp as always.

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#147
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:23:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Just downloaded the new spreadsheet. Looks good.

Degan and Nawlins, what do you think we should use as a trigger for plays? Any particular number is the difference between a dog and fave? Or maybe the dog can't be a negative number and the fave has to be negative?

Open to suggestions. Going with dog as 0 or better and a fave -, would have given us plays today of Sea, Bal, Pitt.

 

Yes thats what I am going to do Dan. 0 to + for dogs and looking for faves in the negative. I just want to see if it can pick faves also. Although I hate playing them with a passion. Its why I posted -1 RL's because a few losses eats away profits quick when betting dogs allows you to stay in the game longer.Just my 2 cents

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#148
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:28:22 PM

Nawlins, good stuf. I was thinking of the faves angle too but didn't consider reducing the juice. I like what you did with making them -1.

Ok, so let's use this picks starting today. Should we flat bet this, labby line, or chase/fade each team?

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#149
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:35:22 PM
I would also add no favs even at -1 higher than -130. I would say track it but I agree with nawlins - juice is the enemy - lets treat this as a system and see how it does as well
Posted using a mobile device.
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#150
Posted: 5/4/2013 4:37:54 PM

Dan,

I say flat bet for now. We start getting into labby lines at this point and new folks come into this thread, we are going to darn their head up lol. For tracking purposes I say flat bet. Yeah lets track it and see how it goes. I will pop into the thread to help during the week to help you if I can. I have 2 procedures this month on my back so I may be MIA from time to time.

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