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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#76
Posted: 4/23/2013 4:43:57 PM
Degen, one thing that I noticed is the spreadsheet is not accounting for doubleheaders from the previous days rainouts.
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#77
Posted: 4/23/2013 5:39:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Degen, one thing that I noticed is the spreadsheet is not accounting for doubleheaders from the previous days rainouts.

yeah - I know - the schedule is hard-coded.  I was planning on re-working that - so the schedule is also dynamic and downloaded from the web.  Just so many things to do on multiple projects.  I'll get to it.

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#78
Posted: 4/23/2013 6:25:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

yeah - I know - the schedule is hard-coded.  I was planning on re-working that - so the schedule is also dynamic and downloaded from the web.  Just so many things to do on multiple projects.  I'll get to it.

No worries, it doesn't happen too often. I can easily look at those games manually.

I did a little checking and found that since we started tracking this on 4/15, road dogs are 16-44 (all games no other filters). Even road dogs with a better record are 6-12. Home dogs are 18-15, with home dogs with a better record 3-2 and with worse record 15-13.

Small sample size, but makes me not want to bet road dogs.

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#79
Posted: 4/24/2013 1:39:01 AM

Tuesday results:

2-2 with 2 rainouts, +.49 units

YTD 26-26, +6.63 units

Balt 101 WIN

KC 165 Rain

Wash 105 Loss

Pitt 148 WIN

NYM 129 Loss

Clev 111 Rain

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#80
Posted: 4/24/2013 11:59:20 AM

Wednesday 4/24 system plays:

Balt 118

Cubs 154

STL 134

Clev 122

Hou 101

AZ 138

Oak 143

Pitt 110

NYY 111

LAA 138

 

 

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#81
Posted: 4/25/2013 1:57:50 AM

Wednesday results:

4-6, -1.17 units

YTD 30-32, +5.46 units

Balt 118 Loss

Cubs 154 Loss

STL 134 WIN

Clev 122 Loss

Hou 101 WIN

AZ 138 WIN

Oak 143 Loss

Pitt 110 WIN

NYY 111 Loss

LAA 138 Loss

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#82
Posted: 4/25/2013 12:09:15 PM

Thursday 4/25 system plays -

Tor 136

Colo 120

NYM 120

Cincy 125

Miami 101

TB 117

Balt 115

Sea 112

KC/Det UNDER 6.5 Even (7 -120 if you prefer)

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#83
Posted: 4/26/2013 1:18:14 AM

Horrible day for the system. If this doesn't start producing winners soon I'm going to stop wasting my time with this.

2-7, -4.93 units

YTD  32-39, +.53 units

Tor 136 Loss

Colo 120 Loss

NYM 120 Loss

Cincy 125 Loss

Miami 101 Loss

TB 117 Loss

Balt 115 WIN

Sea 112 WIN

KC/Det UNDER 6.5 Even (7 -120 if you prefer) Loss

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#84
Posted: 4/26/2013 2:03:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Horrible day for the system. If this doesn't start producing winners soon I'm going to stop wasting my time with this.

2-7, -4.93 units

YTD  32-39, +.53 units

Tor 136 Loss

Colo 120 Loss

NYM 120 Loss

Cincy 125 Loss

Miami 101 Loss

TB 117 Loss

Balt 115 WIN

Sea 112 WIN

KC/Det UNDER 6.5 Even (7 -120 if you prefer) Loss


The YTD is 32-39 and +.53 units. You are hitting at 45% win rate and still in profit. I would not call that wasting time. You have a golden egg in your hand playing juice free games besides the totals. Keep with it and it will benefit you longterm. Do a little handicapping using a tool put into the system(DOG EFF). Make a filter from the dog system plays. Experiment. You have a solid system. There is no reason to play martingale type games when you can still have a losing record for the day and likely be in profit. Every pro capper's system has off days and off weeks. Those that stick with what they know works longterm,benefits. Use smart money management that way you can ride out losing streaks.

You are doing a good job keeping up with it. Stick with it.

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#85
Posted: 4/26/2013 2:38:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nawlins51:


The YTD is 32-39 and +.53 units. You are hitting at 45% win rate and still in profit. I would not call that wasting time. You have a golden egg in your hand playing juice free games besides the totals. Keep with it and it will benefit you longterm. Do a little handicapping using a tool put into the system(DOG EFF). Make a filter from the dog system plays. Experiment. You have a solid system. There is no reason to play martingale type games when you can still have a losing record for the day and likely be in profit. Every pro capper's system has off days and off weeks. Those that stick with what they know works longterm,benefits. Use smart money management that way you can ride out losing streaks.

You are doing a good job keeping up with it. Stick with it.

Just tracking doing flat betting. I do need to look the filters that Degen put in.

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#86
Posted: 4/26/2013 8:30:24 AM

"make a filter from the dog system plays"

nawlins51 assessment is on target- handicap the games in which the system produces, MM technique is the key factor, which must be formulated/innovated by the capper initiating the system. this is about "plus units" not winning%

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#87
Posted: 4/26/2013 10:51:04 AM

Nawlins and SportsNetwork hit the nail on the head - take a look at thursdays' games - if we filtered out dogs with a DOG EFF less than .400 - then .400 - the systems went 2-2

 

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#88
Posted: 4/26/2013 10:52:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Nawlins and SportsNetwork hit the nail on the head - take a look at thursdays' games - if we filtered out dogs with a DOG EFF less than .400 - then .400 - the systems went 2-2

 

And there are probably other filters that I am missing - as I mentioned - I am downright horrible at tracking and analysis - but if you let me know what angles / filters would help - I can add them

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#89
Posted: 4/26/2013 2:21:33 PM

Ok, a little change in strategy. I will mark plays that have .400 or better on the two efficiency filters. With these plays I will use a labby line(s) and post the units plays. I will also include the Unders in this as that is 5-2 so far. I will start this today with a seperate record/units.

I will continue to post all system plays with the flat betting as was suggested by the system originator. I will include the .400 plays in with these flat bet system plays. Let's do this!

Friday 4/26 plays:

DOG EFF

Balt 107 2 units

Sea 125 2 units

Atl/Det under 7.5 -120, 2.4 to win 2 units

System Plays

Tor 125

Cubs 100

TB 127

Minn 104

Pitt 172

Mil 130

Balt 107

Sea 125

Atl/Det under 7.5 -120

 

 

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#90
Posted: 4/27/2013 2:41:21 AM

Friday 4/26 results:

DOG EFF

1-2, -2.26 units

Balt 107 2 units WIN

Sea 125 2 units Loss

Atl/Det under 7.5 -120, 2.4 to win 2 units Loss

System Plays

2-7, -5.13 Units

YTD 34-46, -4.6 Units

Tor 125 Loss

Cubs 100 WIN

TB 127 Loss

Minn 104 Loss

Pitt 172 Loss

Mil 130 Loss

Balt 107 Win

Sea 125 Loss

Atl/Det under 7.5 -120 Loss

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#91
Posted: 4/27/2013 12:38:42 PM

Saturday 4/27 plays:

Dog EFF

Balt 134, 3 units

System Plays

Balt 134

Philly 123

Tor 146

Cle 142

Colo 145

LAA 144

Mil 120

 

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#92
Posted: 4/28/2013 12:35:14 AM

Saturday 4/27 results:

Dog EFF

1-0, +4.02 units

YTD 2-2, +1.76 units

Balt 134, 3 units WIN

System Plays

3-4, -.23 units

YTD 37-50, -4.83

Balt 134 WIN

Philly 123 WIN

Tor 146 Loss

Cle 142 Loss

Colo 145 Loss

LAA 144 Loss

Mil 120 WIN

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#93
Posted: 4/28/2013 12:42:45 PM

Sunday 4/28 plays (Decided to remove the UNDERs from the DOG EFF Plays):

Dog EFF

NYY 1.02, 2 units

System Plays

NYY 1.02

Sox 1.24

Cle 1.02

Minn 1.18

Pitt 1.82

SD 1.17

Atl/Det Under 7.5, +110

Mil/LAD Under 6.5 -110

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#94
Posted: 4/29/2013 12:30:17 AM

Sunday 4/18 results:

Dog EFF

1-0, +2.04 units

YTD: 3-2, +3.80 Units

NYY 1.02, 2 units WIN

System Plays

5-3, +3.19 units

YTD 42-53 , -1.64 units

NYY 1.02 WIN

Sox 1.24 Loss

Cle 1.02 Loss

Minn 1.18 WIN

Pitt 1.82 WIN

SD 1.17 WIN

Atl/Det Under 7.5, +110 Loss

Mil/LAD Under 6.5 -110 WIN

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#95
Posted: 4/29/2013 3:41:03 PM

Monday 4/29 system plays:

Dog EFF

Pitt 119, 2 units

Sea 106, 2 units

System Plays

Pitt 119

Sea 106

Minn 205

Mia 138

Clev 134

Cin 115

LAA 116

Colo 144

Cincy/Stl UNDER 7 -110

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#96
Posted: 4/30/2013 12:51:00 PM

Monday 4/9 results:

Dog EFF

1-1, +.12 units

YTD 4-3, +3.92 units

Pitt 119, 2 units Loss

Sea 106, 2 units WIN

System Plays

6-3, +4.37 units

YTD 48-56,  +2.73 units

Pitt 119 Loss

Sea 106 WIN

Minn 205 Loss

Mia 138 WIN

Clev 134 WIN

Cin 115 WIN

LAA 116 Loss

Colo 144 WIN

Cincy/Stl UNDER 7 -110 WIN

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#97
Posted: 4/30/2013 3:32:25 PM
Dan, is your spreadsheet updating?  Mine has only half the games pitchers, no odds, and no teams.  I've updated 3 times
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#98
Posted: 4/30/2013 3:33:21 PM
sorry, no teams in the system plays columns
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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#99
Posted: 4/30/2013 3:34:49 PM
I get the same thing. Waiting for Degen to chime in.
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#100
Posted: 4/30/2013 3:37:00 PM
In fact, Cisco's and MLB RPI 2013 are the same way.
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