MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
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quote#726
Posted: 2/24/2014 9:30:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by orhane:

i believe it is safer to track selected home dogs and home favs. they generated more value last year. what kind of tweaks do you suggest?
home dogs are the key element....pursue this avenue, it has no boundries..
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quote#727
Posted: 2/24/2014 10:12:43 AM
Buster, you ask for it. You post false info Im going to shred you! 
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quote#728
Posted: 2/24/2014 11:06:10 AM
Buster, how many years did the Royals lose 100 games with 17 game losing streak? Just one in 2005 and it was a 19 game losing streak. July 28- August 19. They lost 100 games 4 times since becoming the the KC Royals in 1969. 

Have a great day! 
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quote#729
Posted: 2/24/2014 4:24:43 PM
Here is some useless info about home dogs:

Average price for a winning home dog +119.7
Home dogs won 337 - 401 lost
Units lost betting every home dog last year -30.35
Ony one month had positive units that was June +21.25 units

This dose of useless info provided by

Jeff the Hat 
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quote#730
Posted: 2/24/2014 8:25:59 PM
The main goal here is not to bet on dogs blindly. Choosing them fitting to the criteria esp before the all star break generated profit.
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quote#731
Posted: 2/24/2014 8:50:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by orhane:

The main goal here is not to bet on dogs blindly. Choosing them fitting to the criteria esp before the all star break generated profit.

While I see why people would want to play dogs I think since return isn't that high especially home dogs @+119.7 I think energies should be focused on RL favorites or even smaller fav's. Only about 28-30% of games are home dogs. If you only play +140 HD to try and get better return it hit 53-108 last year for a loss of 25.34 units. Removing those from the equation would make your return even less attractive probably less than +110. Just thinking out loud. 
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quote#732
Posted: 2/27/2014 4:53:01 AM
will you be posting from the 'penalty box'
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quote#733
Posted: 3/13/2014 10:40:37 PM
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g
i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work
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quote#734
Posted: 3/14/2014 6:31:50 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by orhane:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g
i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work

good commentary, and yes, the stats speak for theirselve. "low scoring scoring (meaning value) dogs seem to work" however, it doesn't stop their, you take the dog to the next level, the (reverse) RL which as you are more than aware of, is the highest valued wager when betting MLB, (you've already capped a dog win, next step is to activate it on the [-1.5] RRL, much like taking an over valued favorite -165 plus, on the [-1.5] RL bringing value to the favorite. Your 'dog' research should lean in the direction of the (reverse) RL:

take note, a stat easily attainable; "What % of 'dogs' won by 2 runs or more in the 2013 MLB season" attach a formulated system to these results, connect them to the top 4 teams, and you have a foundation by which to work from (spreadsheet) for the upcoming season. may you prosper always, have fun, thats what handicapping sports is all about; making money, and having fun on the way to your quest.....later

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quote#735
Posted: 3/14/2014 9:10:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by orhane:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sportsdatabase/sfbZ7RMMM5g

i tried to sdql these systems. seems like onl the low scoring dogs seem to work

It doesn't seem to be displaying for me.. I do log onto there and keep an eye on the threads.. but on this occasion I get the following message:

"The requested topic cannot be found. It might have been deleted"

Is it still showing for you ? Im keen to have a peruse.. cheers.
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quote#736
Posted: 3/14/2014 9:28:09 AM
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

1240 games historically.
394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15
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quote#737
Posted: 3/14/2014 9:28:52 AM
the other underdog systems are not working on a regular basis.
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quote#738
Posted: 3/14/2014 9:57:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by orhane:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

1240 games historically.
394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15
well done, your effort is appreciated by many...
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quote#739
Posted: 3/14/2014 10:02:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by orhane:

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

for Low Scoring Dogs in general.
SU: 568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)   avg line: 138.4 / -151.6   on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068   ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%

1240 games historically.
394 of them finished with a -1.5 RRL result.
That's 31.77% converted to decimal odds of 3.15

Holy dooly… now that's some info that's worth putting into a labby system.. I love the average line.

When we say.. low scoring dog.. what is the definition ?

Thanks so much for this info.. out comes the notepad and pen..
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quote#740
Posted: 3/14/2014 10:03:37 AM
Also that is a large sample of games too.. not like it;s a 50 game sample or anything.
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quote#741
Posted: 3/14/2014 10:30:47 AM
low scoring dog means that this team has won it's previous game with scoring 3 runs or less. coming from a solid defensive effort must be a big boost when going into the next game.
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quote#742
Posted: 3/14/2014 10:35:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by orhane:

low scoring dog means that this team has won it's previous game with scoring 3 runs or less. coming from a solid defensive effort must be a big boost when going into the next game.

 thanks for this clarification!
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quote#743
Posted: 3/14/2014 10:36:25 AM
Saweet.. thanks again.

Just to clarify.. the previous game can be a win being either favourite or a dog ? 

I had a look back at post 1 to 10 but couldn't find the info I was after regarding low scoring dogs.. probably my oversight though.
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quote#744
Posted: 3/14/2014 12:02:56 PM
No it must be an underdog win. Look at the links mentioned in the spreadsheet on google docs.
Posted using a mobile device.
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quote#745
Posted: 3/14/2014 1:56:07 PM
orhane over how many years are those 1240 games spaced???


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quote#746
Posted: 3/14/2014 2:08:45 PM
10 years. 24 games per season on average. I hinkt this is legit enough to take it proven.
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quote#747
Posted: 3/14/2014 2:12:15 PM
124 not 24
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quote#748
Posted: 3/14/2014 2:21:43 PM
yea... 10 years is definitely a very good sample size without doubt!!!

I have no idea what kind of time it would take... and if it is a lot, don't worry about it, but by any chance do you have a year by year breakdown, If so i'd love to see it...

Thanks in advance... Brian
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quote#749
Posted: 3/14/2014 2:33:47 PM
also if my understanding is correct, this is winning as a dog while scoring less than 3 runs, and then being a dog the next game?
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quote#750
Posted: 3/14/2014 2:43:39 PM
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns%3C%3D3+and+season&submit=S+D+Q+L+!
year by year breakdown.
you are correct
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