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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#526
Posted: 6/3/2013 7:32:11 AM
The interresting part is that overall the selections in the last 4 days generated no profit at all.
12 Won - 17 L on the ML
10 Won - 19 L on the RRL
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#527
Posted: 6/3/2013 7:33:39 AM
Sorry was wrong... It generated profit, but being more selective will help in the long haul
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sports_Network
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#528
Posted: 6/3/2013 10:22:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by orhane:

The interresting part is that overall the selections in the last 4 days generated no profit at all.
12 Won - 17 L on the ML
10 Won - 19 L on the RRL
to help you comprehend the correct tracking procedure, I must comment on your confused mis-understanding of stats, first of all 10-19 on the RRL is nothing but profit, do your math, the minumum payout on the RRL is aprx +265? with the addition of Houston, and Miami's 6 WINS your looking at per 2u wager 7.4u profit alone, dont't compare winning % your looking at units gained, and may I add your playing 'dogs' not favorites with inflated value of no advantage to MM technigue. the Sheet is set up to be selective, surely a capper is not required to play every game produced? It's what you do with the sheet, how you 'cut' the games, remember, the key is the final disposition of the handicap which produces the RRL (getting to the RRL has to go though the 'dog' which the Sheet produces daily, and consistently. I hope that this has been helpful in your tracking technique, and gives you a clear understanding that when wagering on MLB dog's MM over-powers winning % "always"   my best-
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orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#529
Posted: 6/3/2013 10:57:11 AM
Sorry, I used the wrong filter. Did not want to mislead anyone here :)
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orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#530
Posted: 6/3/2013 10:59:27 AM
https://www.dropbox.com/s/8enrf91n3v6xbyt/mlb%20underdogs.xlsx updated results
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DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#531
Posted: 6/3/2013 11:21:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

to help you comprehend the correct tracking procedure, I must comment on your confused mis-understanding of stats, first of all 10-19 on the RRL is nothing but profit, do your math, the minumum payout on the RRL is aprx +265? with the addition of Houston, and Miami's 6 WINS your looking at per 2u wager 7.4u profit alone, dont't compare winning % your looking at units gained, and may I add your playing 'dogs' not favorites with inflated value of no advantage to MM technigue. the Sheet is set up to be selective, surely a capper is not required to play every game produced? It's what you do with the sheet, how you 'cut' the games, remember, the key is the final disposition of the handicap which produces the RRL (getting to the RRL has to go though the 'dog' which the Sheet produces daily, and consistently. I hope that this has been helpful in your tracking technique, and gives you a clear understanding that when wagering on MLB dog's MM over-powers winning % "always"   my best-

+1 

Well said SN - I personally don't play every DOG on the sheet - I look at both DOG EFF and DOG EFF SCR, AND I use OTHER models to determine what i'll bet on.

In addition - I take a shot at RRL as SN mentioned when the RRL EFF is over .750 - OR when SN post his RRL plays of the day - LOL - then i just tail him 
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#532
Posted: 6/3/2013 11:23:40 AM
But good work Orhane - the whole goal of this thread is to figure out what filters MAY limit some of the selections to produce a better win %.
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orhane send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
orhane
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#533
Posted: 6/3/2013 11:47:26 AM
Thank you for the kind words and help.
Overall the System had a quick turnaround in the last 2 days:

Only ML Picks: 19 W - 9 L - 15,17 Units Profit
Only RRL Picks: 14 W - 14 L 14,56 Units Profit

Since starting the track back on 26. April the System generated 94 Picks for DogEff Away Picks. 54 W - 42 L and 19,65 Units Profit

For System Play RRL Home Picks: 97 Picks
38 W - 59 L and 29,40 Units Profit.

So overall 92 W - 101 L and 49,05 Profit
So by being Conservative and using 2% of the starting bank as a unit to bet, you would have doubled up your bank in one and a half month. If that is not impressive, I don't know what is.


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#534
Posted: 6/3/2013 12:24:20 PM
Orhane & SN
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sports_Network
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#535
Posted: 6/3/2013 1:35:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by orhane:

Thank you for the kind words and help.
Overall the System had a quick turnaround in the last 2 days:

Only ML Picks: 19 W - 9 L - 15,17 Units Profit
Only RRL Picks: 14 W - 14 L 14,56 Units Profit

Since starting the track back on 26. April the System generated 94 Picks for DogEff Away Picks. 54 W - 42 L and 19,65 Units Profit

For System Play RRL Home Picks: 97 Picks
38 W - 59 L and 29,40 Units Profit.

So overall 92 W - 101 L and 49,05 Profit
So by being Conservative and using 2% of the starting bank as a unit to bet, you would have doubled up your bank in one and a half month. If that is not impressive, I don't know what is.

g tracking
good stuff, vg tracking info, your contribution is appreciated, well done!
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#536
Posted: 6/3/2013 2:01:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kclou:

Degen,
Where do you get your underdog effenicy data that is fed into the spreadsheet ? I've search hi and low, and cannot find the website that shows it. And if it your spreadsheet that's producing it, that's sellable. I find that information extremely interesting .
Thanks in advance

I use the formulas on the DOG EFFICIENCY TAB - the COVERS DATA tab has all the games (i.e if they W or L and by what margin and odds) - so I use a formula (i.e COUNTIFS - it basically does what it says) it COUNTS IF game = W, AND if ODDS >=100 AND....etc
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#537
Posted: 6/3/2013 2:02:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

S_N - Thanks so much for your reply and insight, much appreciated. I will correct the friend request. Apparently I also need to run away from Stations as quickly as possible. A quick closing of the account and head over to the Palms to open a Cantor account. I'll look at William Hill too.

Degen - Considering what S_N had to say regarding tracking and lines, what do you think about changing the lines we use over to Pinnacle or 5dimes? I'm good with any of them, let's get away from Stations.


DanRules - uploaded V12 - changed it to use PINNY odds - SAME LINK
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#538
Posted: 6/3/2013 2:37:19 PM
In the few days since the Div Dog Switch on May 31st.
Ver #10 & Ver #11 have had the same plays 3 times for 1-2 -(.84)u
Ver #11 different plays than #10:  1-3 -(1.91)u
Ver #10 different plays than #11:  5-1 +8.40u
V#10 had Hou on all 3 games of their sweep, and Miami yesterday.  Taking those 4 games away V#10 is 1-1  +.12u

Small sample.
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#539
Posted: 6/3/2013 3:08:51 PM

Monday 6/3 plays

Sagarin plays

YTD 0-2, -4 units

All 2 Units

Pitt 109

Oak 110

Dog EFF Score

YTD 26-26, +4.74 units

Clev 102

Oak 110

Dog EFF

YTD 52-42, +41.92 units

All 2 units

Clev 102

Pitt 109

Oak 110

System Plays

YTD 158-178, +16.88 units

Clev 102

Pitt 109

Oak 110

Hou 162

Mia 165

Colo 122

AZ/STL Under 7.5 -110

 

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#540
Posted: 6/4/2013 12:54:55 AM

Monday 6/3 results

Sagarin plays

1-1, +.2 units

YTD 1-3, -3.8 units

All 2 Units

Pitt 109 Loss

Oak 110 WIN

Dog EFF Score

1-1, +.1 units

YTD 27-27, +4.84 units

Clev 102 Loss

Oak 110 WIN

Dog EFF

1-2, -1.8 units

YTD 53-44, +40.12 units

All 2 units

Clev 102 Loss

Pitt 109 Loss

Oak 110 WIN

System Plays

2-5, -2.35 units

YTD 160-183 +14.53

Clev 102 Loss

Pitt 109 Loss

Oak 110 WIN

Hou 162 WIN

Mia 165 Loss

Colo 122 Loss

AZ/STL Under 7.5 -110 Loss

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sports_Network
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#541
Posted: 6/4/2013 7:07:22 AM

tracking data:

The Houston Astros have 'hit' 6 dogs in a row, 3 have been on the RRL, all on the road, they also took down (on the road) in succession> Detroit +538 RRL, Pittsburgh +420 RRL, KC +365 RRL, previously... the Astros lead MLB in dividends gained (ROI) both as dog play & RRL play; and may I emphasise, all posted, through out this thread. it's all right in front of you; pick 'em their available daily, and consistently..YTD

DogEFF/ROI +40.1u (2u per-play)

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#542
Posted: 6/4/2013 12:01:18 PM
FAVs went 7-2 yesterday - you know what that means - DOGS are coming 
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#543
Posted: 6/4/2013 5:02:12 PM

Tuesday 6/4 plays

Sagarin plays

YTD 1-3, -3.8 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

YTD 27-27, +4.84 units

Minn 120

Dog EFF

YTD 53-44, +40.12 units

All 2 units

Cle 130

Tex 129

Minn 120

AZ 139

 

System Plays

YTD 160-183 +14.53

Cle 130

Tex 129

Minn 120

AZ 139

Hou 163

Mia 146

Mets 167

SD 123

Tor 109

TB/Det Under 8 -115

ChiSox/Sea Under 6 -115

 

quote
RommiRommi
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#544
Posted: 6/4/2013 5:42:21 PM
why i can't see HOU on spreadsheet?
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#545
Posted: 6/4/2013 6:20:49 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by RommiRommi:

why i can't see HOU on spreadsheet?

They should be under the Low Scoring Dog system

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: South Point |
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#546
Posted: 6/5/2013 1:38:00 AM

Tuesday 6/4 results

Sagarin plays

YTD 1-3, -3.8 units

All 2 Units

No plays

Dog EFF Score

1-0, +1.2 units

YTD 28-27, +6.04 units

Minn 120 WIN

Dog EFF

2-2, +1.18 units

YTD 55-46, +41.30 units

All 2 units

Cle 130 Loss

Tex 129 Loss

Minn 120 WIN

AZ 139 WIN

System Plays

2-9, -6.71 units

YTD 162-192 +7.82

Cle 130 Loss

Tex 129 Loss

Minn 120 WIN

AZ 139 WIN

Hou 163 Loss

Mia 146 Loss

Mets 167 Loss

SD 123 Loss

Tor 109 Loss

TB/Det Under 8 -115 Loss

ChiSox/Sea Under 6 -115 Loss

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Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: South Point |
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#547
Posted: 6/5/2013 2:51:05 AM
Buckeye - Would it be possible for you to post the plays on Thursday?
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#548
Posted: 6/5/2013 6:31:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Buckeye - Would it be possible for you to post the plays on Thursday?
Sure, no problem.  Since there's 2 afternoon games and I have to work, I'll run it at 630 am, and then again when I get home after at 4pm....EST
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#549
Posted: 6/5/2013 11:09:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Sure, no problem.  Since there's 2 afternoon games and I have to work, I'll run it at 630 am, and then again when I get home after at 4pm....EST

Thanks, I have to hit the road by 5am and will be driving for about 8 hours. If you can do the RPI too that would be great.

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#550
Posted: 6/5/2013 11:25:57 AM

Wecnesday 6/5 plays

Sagarin plays

YTD 1-3, -3.8 units

All 2 Units

Pitt 125

Dog EFF Score

YTD 28-27, +6.04 units

Minn 135

Dog EFF

YTD 55-46, +41.30 units

All 2 units

Minn 135

AZ 126

 

System Plays

YTD 162-192 +7.82

Minn 135

AZ 126

Hou 147

Mia 183

Tor 105

Mets 130

SD 199

ChiSox/Sea Under 7 -115

TB/Det Under 8 -105

 

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